Francis Scialabba
“It’s a little bit hard to read the room with
everyone in cars.”
That’s a quote from the one and only Tesla CEO Elon
Reeve Musk at the company’s shareholder meeting and “Battery Day” event
yesterday. Musk did his thing (touting Tesla’s manufacturing capabilities
and talking cathodes) onstage for a crowd...of parked Teslas. With
shareholders inside them to practice safe social distancing.
Setting the scene
The EV battery sector is heating up like your
MacBook when you have too many tabs open, and Musk teased an exciting
battery announcement in the days leading up to the event. Automakers like
GM are pouring resources into developing their own, while companies like
China’s BYD are jockeying to offer the cheapest, most powerful
option.
The company update: To paraphrase...we’re in
beast mode. Musk said 2020 deliveries
will rise between 30% and 40% over last year. That works out to between
477,750 and 514,500 cars.
- Tesla
is also working on updates to its driver-supporting software
Autopilot; it will release a beta of the "full self-driving
version" in the coming months.
The battery update: Musk announced
next-generation batteries, the 4680, that will have 6x more power, provide
5x more energy, and increase driving range by 16%...at half the cost.
- Why
is that a tease-worthy announcement? Reducing battery price is key to
making EVs cost-competitive with gasoline-powered cars. Tesla's helped
bring battery costs down from over $600/kWh to about $150/kWh...but it
needs to land at around $100/kWh to achieve what you could call
"petroleum parity," writes the WSJ.
- Musk
said the goal was to make a $25,000 EV...that’s also “fully
autonomous” in three years.
Looking ahead...“To be clear, it will take us about a
year to 18 months to start to realize these advantages,” Musk said.
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WSJ - Tesla Battery-Gas Parity
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