Friday, February 28, 2020

Exposing the Roots of Globalism

Exposing the Roots of Globalism

February 27, 2020
What are the real roots of globalism, the ideology of the party of Davos, transnational corporations, of many U.S. Democrats, and their counterparts in Europe and elsewhere today?
First, a definition. “Globalism” is one world government run on the basis of democratic socialism and world citizenship.
From the globalist perspective, all of world history is a history of endless wars among competing tribes and interest groups (later called nation-states) vying for domination, colonization and empire.
All religions, political philosophies, and histories are masks for this domination. All national histories are histories of oppression—both domestic and international—and are therefore delegitimate. All national histories in world history entail a form of victimization.
The ideal of “perpetual peace” requires secularization based on principle and the end of all religion.
As a “new charter” comes into being, each of us surrenders what we have acquired by illegitimate (racial, gender, or national) privilege or conquest and there is a confiscation, then redistribution, of all wealth and property. The new globalist “ethical” principle becomes total equality.
No borders exist, so there is no such thing as illegal immigration, as nation states by definition cease to exist.
There is no difference between the rights of citizens and non-citizens so, “illegals” are entitled to all of the same economic, social and legal privileges of citizens the world over.
Legislative supremacy is imposed by global bod(ies); we do not need an independent executive because there is no such thing as “foreign” policy; it follows that efforts to impeach and remove (President Trump or any other) elected leaders who oppose globalism are always justified.
“True socialism” means we do not need political parties that inevitably represent competing interest groups. We only need “experts” in a global technocracy where cooperation replaces competition and the market itself. Stakeholders replace shareholders. The global environment, i.e., climate change, becomes the single unifying feature of reality and intersectionality (identity politics) the measure of all things.
These technocrats, no longer a “deep state,” just the global administrative state (including journalists and educators), are trained by the “major” approved globalist universities (those with certified centers for and curriculum in globalism) to perpetuate, execute, and perfect the model.
The true end of globalism is the eradication of nations, patriotism, popular sovereignty, any attachment to families, churches or civic associations, and the emergence of a “New Man” (Person): cosmopolitan, rootless, atheist, and willing to follow the dictates of globalist ideology.

Globalism vs. Nationalism

When you take the 30,000-foot view, you can see the larger context and the significant stakes in the contest between the Democrats and Trump.
Globalism is the Democrats’ core belief today. Open borders, diminished sovereignty, multilateralism, multiculturalism, and everything defined as “worldwide” or global in scope. World government is the ultimate, long-term end.
Nationalism is its polar opposite.
For Trump, the nation state is supreme and sovereign. Borders matter, bilateralism is preferable, national and ethnic identities are rooted in tradition, cultures count, and the intermediating institutions of society—family, church, civic association and place—come first. Issues are settled by sovereign nation states, which are not going away.
The battle lines are set as never before.
One ideology is pitted against the other; one set of institutions against the other; one cultural outcome against the other.
It is war.
Truth is, globalization has been ebbing while economic and political populism has been surging. Globalists no longer provide the accepted set of rules for the political and economic order. Transnational, multilateral, and supranational organizations and their networks, experts, and regulators are everywhere on the defense. Cosmopolitan and globalist values are no longer ascendant. This is what made Trump’s candidacy and presidency viable. It is underscored in his re-election campaign.
As a matter of fact, national sovereignty has soared back and is growing stronger, week-by-week, and month-by-month. We see it most clearly in President Trump’s principled realism, which he calls “America First.”
Like the 19th-century version of populism that rallied against the gold standard, today’s economic populism is similarly anti-establishment, anti-elitist, and opposed to all forms of globalization and globalist governance.
Economic history and economic theory both provide strong reasons to suggest that the advanced stages of globalization are proofs for the nationalist-populist backlash—in both its right- and left-wing variants—and everywhere from Brexit to Brazil and the Trump effect to the current European political situation to the unrest throughout Latin America.
Whether along ethnocultural cleavages or along income and class lines, these forms of populism are a predictable and logical result. It should surprise no one, including globalists that the pendulum has swung so far in this direction.
Analytically there are two sides to populism: demand and supply. Economic anxiety generates a base for populism but does not determine its particular political narrative—that storyline is left to various populist politicians and movements, which are on the rise today, worldwide.
National greatness in one place does not diminish it in another place. There is no reason why all nations cannot articulate their individual greatness and, each in its own national interest interact in the world in a more peaceful and benign fashion.
Actually, it is the economics of trade and financial integration that provide the politically contentious backdrop to all globalization. Trade theory, such as the well-known Stolper-Samuelson theorem, shows that there are sharp distributional implications for open trade—in other words, free trade is not a “win-win.” Losers are inevitable.
And generally, those who lose are low-skilled and unskilled workers. Trade liberalization raises the domestic price of exportables relative to importables. Go to any Walmart, if you want to check out this phenomenon first hand. Where is everything made?
There is an inherent form of redistribution at work here—the flip side of the benefits of trade. Overall as globalization advances, trade agreements themselves become more about redistributing and less about expanding the economic pie. The political fallout is clear: globalization, the opposite of national interest, has become more and more contentious, if not unsustainable.
The empirical evidence bears this out. From NAFTA, which has cost the United States some $3.5 trillion over the last decade, to the widening U.S.-China trade deficit, the American economy has enjoyed few overriding efficiency gains from globalization.
What we have, instead, are large trade imbalances, income stagnation among middle earners, and other nasty social side effects. Talk to any middle-class family or visit any town or factory in the affected areas and you can gain first-hand knowledge, up close and personal.
The overall benefits of globalization are zero to negative. Trade was supposed to be based on reciprocity and growth, but it turned out to be a sham.
Have those “left behind”—the “forgotten silent majority,” in Trumpian terms—been compensated for the clear effects of globalization? No, not really.
The benefits of international trade as originally argued by Adam Smith and its subsequent canonization ignores important historical differences. A displaced worker in our modern technological age (unlike a day-laborer or farmer in the 18th century) already has a home mortgage, car payments, and tuition for his children, and lots of other overhead. Merely switching careers or retraining is not so simple for many people. Truthfully, it is more than difficult, especially for middle-aged workers who have generally worked one job and in one place.
The share of U.S. imports in GDP went from less than 7 percent in 1975 to more than 18 percent in recent years, but the imbalance has provided little of what’s called trade adjustment assistance.
Why? Because it is very costly—and politicians on all sides of the spectrum make a lot of promises they simply do not keep.
All economists know that trade causes job and income losses for some groups. Those same economists deride the notion of “fair trade” as a kind of fiction, but that’s clearly not the case as we see with anti-dumping rules and countervailing duties. These are dubbed “trade remedies” for a reason. And don’t forget what might be called “social dumping”—where one country literally dumps its unemployment potential elsewhere or subsidizes inefficient production forever, regardless of the cost.
What about operational mobility and the so-called benefits of financial globalization? The distinction between short-term, “hot money” and financial crises and long-term capital flows, such as foreign direct investment, is significant. One is disruptive, the other enhancing. One is patient and the other imprudent. So why is it that the timing of financial globalization and the occurrence of banking crises coincide almost perfectly?
Recurrent boom-and-bust cycles are familiar to less developed countries, but now appear to have spread to the European Union and the United States. Financial globalization, like trade, has exerted a downward pressure on the labor share of income.
Has anyone ever heard this line? “Accept lower wages, or we will move abroad!” The other week, a gentleman in Ohio was interviewed who managed a large battery-manufacturing unit there and had recently moved to Mexico. When asked about the thousands of workers in Ohio, he replied: “They are gone. We hired far cheaper Mexican ones in Juarez at just a fraction of their hourly wage.”
Those with lower skills or qualifications are the least able to shift or move across borders and are most damaged by this sort of risk shifting. But soon, so too, will be the accountants, architects, engineers, software developers, and every other white-collar worker.
It has also become harder to tax global mobile capital. Capital moves to the lowest rate tax haven and uses transfer pricing to disguise profits. Taxes on labor and consumption are much easier to collect, and they have gone increasingly up and up.
Globalization, we were told, had a big upside. This is the bill of goods the public has been sold for decades. In fact, globalization has only helped the few: exporters, multinationals, and the large international banks, as well as certain professionals and the very top management.
It surely helped some countries, such as China, which rapidly transformed peasant farmers into low-cost manufacturing workers, thereby reducing poverty. But all those jobs were at the cost of “old jobs” in America’s Rust Belt. In effect, globalization was a definite and planned wealth transfer from one place to the other, which has gone largely unreported.
There is another side of the not-so-glossy globalization coin: increased domestic inequality and exacerbated social division. The benefits and monetary flows sold to the unknowing public turned out to be all one-sided and went exclusively to the very highly skilled, to employers, to cities, to cosmopolitans, and to elites—not to ordinary working people.
The United States and Europe have been ravaged by financial crises, decades without a raise in pay or the standard of living for the masses and by the effects of austerity—while the few got richer. Globalization gutted the existing social contract and ushered in a stigma of unfairness—in what is called “a rigged system.”
The playing field was hardly level. The winners took all and investment bankers always seemed to come out on top, whether they were selling distressed mortgage debt or shorting it (sometimes simultaneously).
In the end, the economics of globalization and of globalist agency are, we have discovered, not politically sustainable.
Economic integration (in the EU or globally) has definite and unacceptable real costs that the people cannot and will not bear. This explains the rise of economic and political populism.
It explains Trump.
Economic populism and its political cousin, political populism, are an antidote and a reality check to excessive globalization and globalist values and institutions.
The 2016 election year was a watershed. The Clinton globalists did not want to lose to the Trump nationalists. They did not want their world or their ambitions for globalism disrupted. They want to return to the status quo ante.
They have been disrupted; and 2020 promises to continue this much needed disruption.

Monday, February 24, 2020

Bernie the Beliggerant.


In all her years in congress Elizabeth Warren introduced 110 bills.  2 passed.   Cory Booker  introduced 120 bills.  0 passed.  Kamala Harris introduced 54 bills. 0 passed.

Bernie Sanders is truly special. He never held a job until he was finally elected mayor at age 53.  He lived off of welfare and four different women, had a child out-of-wedlock with one, and the three marriages did not work out.

In all his years in the Senate, he introduced 364 bills. 3 passed. Two of those were to name post offices.

If you want to know what kind of leader Bernie is,  go to Wikipedia, it’s a long report

The following is condensed: Bernie Sanders’ father was a high school drop-out, who tormented his family with rants about their financial problems.   He blamed society and economic inequality for his plight, though as a white male in a middle class neighborhood, he was hardly among the downtrodden. This was Bernie’s inspiration to take up the cause of economic justice, though he would spend half of his life as an able-bodied college graduate living off of unemployment checks, and the women in his life, between odd jobs.

By his own admission, Bernie was not a great student, starting at Brooklyn College and transferring to Univ. of Chicago, but this enrollment kept him protected from the draft.  He joined socialist organizations and dabbled in far-left communist politics, gaining national notoriety by petitioning the school to let students have sex in the dormitories.

This was before birth control and abortion were legal, when there were still very serious repercussions for women if the condom broke, but that didn’t stop him from crusading against those silly rules that were an obstacle to his own satisfaction.   He participated in the 1963 March on Washington, a few demonstrations, and was arrested once, but his activism for civil rights ended when he became obsessed with socialism.  NOT “democratic socialism”, but oppressive far-left Marxism.

Bernie married his college sweetheart, Deborah Shilling, and spent his small inheritance on a summer home in Vermont on 85 acres.  The shack had a dirt floor and no electricity, maintaining his proletariat credibility, but not impressing his new bride.   He refused to get a steady job, so his wife didn’t stick around long, divorced after 18 months.

The Viet Nam war was escalating, and when the next draft was announced, Bernie applied for a conscientious objector deferment.  His deferment was denied, so he dodged the draft by having a kid out of wedlock in 1969 with his new girlfriend, Susan Mott,  even though he STILL wasn’t working, and had no way to support the child.  By the time his draft number came up, he was too old to be drafted anyway.

He continued to subsist on odd carpentry jobs and unemployment checks, and occasionally selling $15 articles, including the one about how women fantasize about gang rape. He still refused to get a steady job to support his child.  His girlfriend left him. In 1988 he married Jane Driscoll, and took a cold-war era honeymoon in communist USSR.  His new wife supported Bernie financially through his many attempts to win a public office, and shared his radical leftist political views.  They visited the pro-Soviet Sandinista Government in Nicaragua known for their human rights violations, support for anti-American terrorists, and the imprisonment and exile of opponents.  Bernie blindly overlooked the carnage to stand with fellow socialists.

They traveled to Cuba in hopes of meeting Bernie’s hero Fidel Castro, but access to him was denied.  Bernie Sanders managed not to hold a full-time job his entire life or vote in a single election, until he finally ran for Mayor of Burlington at the age of 40.   After several failed elections, he finally won the office of Mayor of Burlington, VT, and eventually a Senate seat, which he has managed to keep off and on. For all of his years representing Vermont, Bernie Sanders passed a total of three bills, and two of them were for naming post offices. He’s a draft-dodging deadbeat dad, a globe-trotting communist dilettante, and a petulant detractor of hard-working honorable Democrats.

His one skill is yelling about how unfair the world is, and how everything SHOULD be.

But he has no plans for how to make it happen, and no idea what goes on in the rest of the world or how to deal with problems overseas.   His excuse for not having a foreign policy or national security plank on his platform: “I’ve only been campaigning for three months.”

His socialist friends are bitter about what they see as a betrayal of their values by Bernie’s pursuit of the Democratic nomination.   His former wives and girlfriends run when they see reporters and will not speak to the press.

Bernie’s past, including a brief stint living in a kibbutz in Israel is cloaked in secrecy. (It worked for B Hussein.)

Former employees and coworkers describe him as hostile and belligerent.  All of the Democrats in Vermont’s government endorsed Hillary Clinton

The people who know Bernie best cannot stand him.  His supporters cannot explain how he is qualified to be presid
ent.
                                                 
"American freedoms are no more than one generation away from extinction" - President Reagan -

NeverSanders? – American Greatness - VDH

NeverSanders? – American Greatness

February 24, 2020
Almost everything the Democratic Left said about Donald Trump causing a Republican Party implosion proved untrue—and yet is proving true this year of the Democrats.
Trump’s agenda, for the most part, was Reaganesque, with a few important exceptions—closing the border and enforcing immigration law, getting tough with China’s unfair trade policies, restoring assembly and manufacturing jobs to the hollowed-out interior, avoiding optional wars abroad, and trying to drain the proverbial federal swamp of its careerist bureaucrats and revolving-door apparatchiks.
Those wrinkles from the Republican agenda, in fact, were consistent with traditional conservative values, and thus even among establishment and mainstream Republicans still polled well enough. That reality later was empowered by Trump’s effort to keep his campaign promises, by an economy at near-record employment, and by foreign policy recalibrations that are starting to win grudging, if unspoken, bipartisan support on China, given news coverage of the Hong Kong crackdown, the reeducation camps, the coronavirus debacle, and the Orwellian surveillance state apparat.
Even before Trump’s governance, the NeverTrump Right was emasculated, largely because its pundits and politicians could offer no alternative party agenda superior to Trump’s. Moreover, they had spent much of their lives advocating most of the very policies Trump was advancing, and increasingly was getting results. Nor before or after the election could they ever convince Republicans that Trump’s crassness and uncouth tweets were quite unlike the White House crudity of past presidents (e.g., Kennedy, Johnson, Clinton) rather than in part attributable to the Internet/social media age and the new tabloid media.
All those facts explain why Trump in 2016 received nearly 90 percent of the Republican vote, at par with, or better than, previous Republican nominees. Polling suggests that in 2020 Trump will do as well with Republican voters, or even better than four years ago. Certainly, the current NeverTrumpers, for all the “character is king” lectures, remain inert, and without influence. Again, they have never squared the circle of opposing the implementation of agendas they spent their careers promoting.
Instead, the rump that is left of the NeverTrump Right, more and more, is sustained by the Left, which finds them either useful idiot panelists on cable news, or eager website panhandlers of leftwing tech largess—always on the condition they write ever more contorted anti-Trump tirades.
In sum, for all the talk in 2016 of Trump destroying the Republican Party, he has learned how to unite it in a way unfathomable to his critics. Politicos concede that calling China to account, working to revitalize the industrial heartland, ending illegal immigration, and curbing the administrative state are becoming mainstream Republican tenets.

2020 is Not Quite 2016

In the frenzy to abort the Trump presidency, the Left advanced the construct that the Republican Party was fragmented, self-destructive, and soon to disappear as a serious political force. All those prognoses better characterized the current state of the Democratic Party.
2020 Sanders is their presumed 2016 Trump, at least as mainstream Democrats see it. Bernie is a supposed destructive outsider who loathes the party establishment and has a fervent base that is oblivious to their candidate’s inconsistencies and prior embarrassing associations and rhetoric—and doesn’t give a damn whether he takes down the party in the 2020 election on his singular, narcissistic crusade to become president. 
Yet unlike Sanders’ radical redistributionism, Trump’s tweaking of the Republican agenda eventually achieved unity, and brought Reagan Democrats, Perot voters, Tea-party activists, and blue-collar voter drop-outs back into the party without losing the Republican mainstream.
In contrast, Sanders’s promises to end fracking, implement the radical Green New Deal, institute a 70-90 percent top income tax rate along with a wealth tax, reparations, an open border and blanket amnesties, Medicare for all, and radical loosening of voter eligibility seem unlikely to unite Democrats in quite the same way. Little of that appeals to suburban voters and independents, and will not win them into the Democratic Party—but it will lose Sanders 10-20 percent of registered Democrats who will stay home or furtively vote Trump.

Top of the Ticket Sanders?

Sanders scares liberal Wall Street, and to some extent even the Silicon Valley progressive technocracy. Keeping one’s fortune cuts a lot of ideological ties. He has none of the appeal of Hillary Clinton to the deep state, or to party governors, senators, and House members. If in 2016 loyal Democrat office-holders and candidates at the state and federal level felt that Hillary on the ticket would empower them, they now fear Sanders could lose them the House and win Trump a supermajority in the Senate along with two more picks on the Supreme Court.
Oddly, Sanders’s rivals on the debate stage never really hit the presumptive leader where he is most vulnerable: his reprehensible past empathy for the genocidal Soviet Union, and his praise of communist dictatorships such as those in Nicaragua and Cuba. Then there remains the embarrassing paradox of a die-hard socialist redistributionist eager to cash in on his political career—to the extent of setting up his wife as an in-house, well-paid consultant (with her past failed career as wheeler-dealer small college president who bankrupted her institution and for a while won the attention of the FBI), while becoming a millionaire with three homes. Mention that, as Bloomberg did in the recent debate, and Bernie becomes livid, in a fashion that appears dangerous for a septuagenarian who recently survived a heart attack.
Will there arise a Democratic NeverSanders movement if Bernie wins the nomination? It depends. The Democratic fear and loathing of Sanders exceed that of Republicans for Trump in 2016.
But whereas the alternative four years ago for NeverTrump Republicans was Hillary Clinton—with all the orthodox respectability and bipartisan bureaucratic schmoozing that Clinton sought to convey—would-be NeverSanders Democrats either would be actively or implicitly helping Donald J. Trump.
Would a Warren Buffet, Bill Gates, or Joe Manchin prefer the hated Donald Trump or good ol’ radical socialist Bernie Sanders with his calls for wealth taxes, 90 percent tax rates, wars against billionaires, a foreign policy far to the left of Barack Obama’s and socialization of the medical system?
We can see glimpses of the NeverSanders Left dilemma in the confusion of the current NeverTrump right. For most of the primary season, they more or less praised Joe Biden, the front-runner and assumed likely nominee who ultimately supposedly would govern in the fashion of Bill Clinton, and thus was clearly preferable to the despised Trump.
But now?
Most are going silent on the question of 2016, given the embarrassment that the logical dividend of hating Trump in 2020 is the election of America’s first socialist, whose agenda makes his spiritual predecessors Eugene Debs and Huey Long seem tame in comparison. Will NeverTrumpers resurrect the third-party wannabe Evan McMullen or finally convince David French to run? Will they sit out the election? Any NeverTrump “conservative” who voted for Sanders would be revealed as a rank opportunist or an unhinged obsessive-compulsive Trump hater, given the strange odyssey from establishment Beltway conservative to socialist nihilist.  
So Sanders as the nominee has the unique ability of destroying the Democratic Party. In 1964, Rockefeller Republicans jumped to LBJ, after the tumultuous Goldwater takeover of the party. George McGovern in 1972 helped accelerate the neoconservative transformation of Democrats into Republicans. Reagan Democrats abandoned Mondale in 1984. For a half-century until the election of Barack Obama in 2008—a result of the anemic McCain campaign, the 2008 financial meltdown, the incumbent Bush’s sub-30 percent popularity, the unpopular Iraq War, and the idea of America’s first African-American president—Democrats did not win the popular vote in presidential elections unless their nominees had a southern accent—LBJ, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Al Gore—and, with it, reassuring proof of centrism. Northern losing liberals like Hubert Humphrey, George McGovern, Walter Mondale, Michael Dukakis, and John Kerry apparently confirmed a too leftward drift of the party.
In sum, if Sanders wins, the silent NeverSanders Democrats will become more numerous than were the loud impotent NeverTrump Republicans. And they need not vote Trump, but instead simply stay home or find a third-party or renegade Democrat to rally around to ensure Trump’s reelection.
Note that Trump was not only more consistent with his party’s values than Sanders, but more representative of the views of American voters in general. One might object that Trump is crude and off-putting and thus cancels out the appeal of his record. But is Bernie pleasant and measured?

Sunday, February 23, 2020

THE CORBYNIZATION OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY

THE CORBYNIZATION OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY ACCELERATES:

 Bernie Sanders is The Corbynizer.

A true socialist, Sanders has been poised on his Marx all his life for this moment:
The Democrats are now being unraveled by what Sanders might call the ‘contradictions of capitalism’. While the Democratic leadership was soaking Wall Street and Silicon Valley and pandering to the public sector unions, it outsourced the maintenance of its coalition to the radicals, and indulged them as they built their Potemkin villages of intersectionality. Now, as the party structure hollows out and the party leadership fails convincingly to answer Donald Trump, the radicals have the ground game and the ideology to remake the party from the bottom up. The result is a radically depraved version of the rainbow coalition, with Sanders as its Corbyn-style ‘Magic Grandpa’, a deceptively cuddly fellow traveler determined to ride their youthful exuberance into office.
When Magic Grandpa shakes the money tree, it’s not just that other people’s money falls out. A tangle of poisonous roots is also exposed. A coalition of coalitions has mobilized for Sanders: acrimonious initials like the DSA (Democratic Socialists of America) and CAIR (Council on American-Islamic Relations), Jew-baiting proxies like Ilhan Omar and Linda Sarsour, woke warriors like IfNotNow and the Justice Dems, and bongwater conspiracists like the Chapo Trap House chaps and the campus wing of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine.
Read the whole thing.
Related: Bernie Sanders: Twenty Things You Didn’t Know About Him.

Friday, February 21, 2020

Morgan Stanley announced it’s buying online brokerage E-Trade

Yesterday, Morgan Stanley announced it’s buying online brokerage E-Trade in a $13 billion, all-stock deal that’s Wall Street’s biggest takeover since the 2008 financial crisis. 
The prize: E-Trade’s 5.2 million customers and $360 billion in assets, including $56 billion in deposits it can use as funding. And top billing in the Brew, obviously. 

Conditions were ripe 

Now that Morgan Stanley has overcome Heartbreak Hill on its recession recovery marathon, it's looking for steadier revenue streams than its investment banking and trading divisions can offer. CEO James Gorman has been stalking E-Trade for years—first in 2002 at Merrill Lynch, then in 2007 at Morgan Stanley. 
  • Talks rekindled in December as E-Trade pondered its fate following news that brokerage rivals Charles Schwab and TD Ameritrade were combining
  • All three brokerages were hurting from falling commissions and low interest rates.
Zoom out: Noticing more banking deals? Wall Street is taking advantage of the Trump administration’s friendlier attitude to financial takeovers.

From Wall St. to Main St. 

Last year, wealth management accounted for more than half of Morgan Stanley’s record $41 billion in revenue. Its 15k-strong human advisors traditionally focused on the 0.1%, but last year, MS opened up an online tool for customers who can file on TurboTax. 
  • The E-Trade acquisition will expand that division, and execs said it would give Morgan Stanley the ability to offer more regular-guy services like checking and savings. 
  • Gorman also hopes to leverage E-Trade to expand wealth management services to international customers.
And don’t forget about E-Trade’s primary engine: managing compensation-related stock. The combined companies will control $580+ billion in employee shares across 4,000 corporate customers. 
Big picture: “All of Wall Street is on the hunt for more reliable sources of revenue after postcrisis regulations and a long period of eerie calm in the markets crimped trading,” writes the WSJ. JPMorgan and Bank of America are doubling down on payments, while Goldman Sachs is leaning into retail banking.
        

Wednesday, February 19, 2020

Prager on Empirical Conservates



Prager on Empirical Conservates


Heather MacDonald and Dave Rubin

Japan Economic Situation (MBrew 02-28)

After raising a controversial sales tax for the third time last October, Japan posted its second-worst quarter in a decade. GDP in Q4 2019 fell 6.3% on an annualized basis, driven by an 11.5% drop in consumer spending. 
Those numbers were bad before the coronavirus hit. The outbreak, which has infected over 71,000 people, cost Japan critical tourism revenue from January's Lunar New Year holiday and threw supply chains for a loop. 
If Japan’s GDP shrinks this quarter (as expected), the world's third-largest economy will be in a recession. 

The tax

Japan introduced the consumption tax in 1989, then bumped it to 5% in 1997 and 8% in 2014.  
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was responsible for that last hike. Arriving in office (for the second time) in 201

After raising a controversial sales tax for the third time last October, Japan posted its second-worst quarter in a decade. GDP in Q4 2019 fell 6.3% on an annualized basis, driven by an 11.5% drop in consumer spending. 
Those numbers were bad before the coronavirus hit. The outbreak, which has infected over 71,000 people, cost Japan critical tourism revenue from January's Lunar New Year holiday and threw supply chains for a loop. 
If Japan’s GDP shrinks this quarter (as expected), the world's third-largest economy will be in a recession. 

The tax

Japan introduced the consumption tax in 1989, then bumped it to 5% in 1997 and 8% in 2014.  
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was responsible for that last hike. Arriving in office (for the second time) in 2012, he's improved Japan's deflation, investment, and unemployment levels, but household consumption has remained frustratingly low, growing just 2.6% in real terms over the last 10 years. 
But Japan's massive debt load (240% of GDP) and social programs won’t pay for themselves, so Abe bumped up the tax again to 10% and paired it with stimulus measures to offset potential negative impacts. 

Critics of Abe have plenty of ammunition

Over the last 25 years, Japan's three worst quarters for household consumption coincided with consumption tax hikes, according to the WSJ.
And inflation dipped into the negatives in October, which suggests companies are being more cautious and cutting prices to keep demand up, according to the FT.
Big picture: While the Fed and European Central Bank launched stimulus measures last year, the Bank of Japan hung tight. But it's running out of options just as the coronavirus curveball leaves the country on the brink of another downturn.
        
2, he's improved Japan's deflation, investment, and unemployment levels, but household consumption has remained frustratingly low, growing just 2.6% in real terms over the last 10 years. 
But Japan's massive debt load (240% of GDP) and social programs won’t pay for themselves, so Abe bumped up the tax again to 10% and paired it with stimulus measures to offset potential negative impacts. 

Critics of Abe have plenty of ammunition

Over the last 25 years, Japan's three worst quarters for household consumption coincided with consumption tax hikes, according to the WSJ.
And inflation dipped into the negatives in October, which suggests companies are being more cautious and cutting prices to keep demand up, according to the FT.
Big picture: While the Fed and European Central Bank launched stimulus measures last year, the Bank of Japan hung tight. But it's running out of options just as the coronavirus curveball leaves the country on the brink of another downturn.