Ross Rant Jan 25

 FW: Ross Rant Jan 25

 

 

He has mandated that schools must allow transgenders to compete in sports with real girls. Where that has been tried it has led to unfair competition and substantial anger by real female athletes. Firing the general counsel of the NLRB, which may have been illegal and has not been done since 1947,  will lead to major new regulations on companies that will raise costs and create union problems. It will raise costs and potentially upset the entire franchise arrangements by making franchisors liable to franchisee workers once the NLRB has majority Dems and the new lawyer. It is also likely to upset the entire independent contractor relationship that voters in CA just voted down changing. Firing the heads of CFPB and NLRB day one is his example of coming together-as in coming together with the unions and left wingers like Warren. There are new rules mandating emergency paid leave. Costs up. There are new rules strengthening government unions which will lead to more costly government operations.

 

Stopping the wall defaults on $3 billion of signed contracts. One estimate is it will cost $700 million, or more, to get out of those, and no more wall. Border patrol said the ending of the wall will just lead to less ability to stop drugs and criminals and masses of illegals into the US. The cartels have moved operations to Tucson area where there is no wall. The caravans have been forming up again feeding money to the cartels who run them.  Mexico has apparently said -hold on we don’t want all these migrants coming through Mexico. So now he has already managed to piss off Canada and Mexico in 24 hours. The wall construction also meant a lot of very good paying jobs. Deportations have been stopped, so now TX is going to sue, and ICE is stuck with deportees to be housed. They will have to spend a lot to build new detention centers to process and hold the tens of thousands that will be arriving now that the border is opening to all. The flood of illegals will hurt low  income workers who are the ones most harmed by Covid. The sex traffickers and cartels are thrilled. Along with that is the lifting of the travel ban on 7 Muslim countries that helped us keep the US safer from a terror attack. Nobody ever said Biden had any smarts. What he is doing is a left wing assault on cost controls, and efficient operations for companies.  One result, profits will be reduced over time, and the stock market will decline over time. Good going Joe. You are following right in line with Obama, and the result will be the same- a slow economy once all the new regs take hold and taxes increase.

 

Then we have the $15 minimum wage that should cost at least 500,000 low income jobs according to the CBO. It will also put numerous small businesses out of business. One of the executive orders just signed requires all federal contractors to pay at least $15 per hour. Up go costs for any federal work or projects. More deficit, and a base from which private payrolls will rise. The Dems who have never run a company seem not to realize how prices are set based on cost of production. Add on the $2000 x 4 for the average family, plus $400 a week, plus 15% increase in food stamps, prohibition on eviction and foreclosure, and on student loan payments, and why go back to work. Good work Joe in building the recovery by eliminating jobs and disincentivizing going back to work. It is considered by many to be unlikely there will be another $1.9 trillion stimulus. It is likely to end up around $1 trillion which is still $1 trillion more than is needed. The expanded PPP now in place will be a major help, but reopening NY and CA will be far more important.  Odd coincidence, but two days after Trump is out, several Dem cities suddenly, all of them at once,  discovered it is OK to again have indoor dining. They are now immunizing 1.2 million a day and rising, so that will also make a major difference. NY and CA together are a major piece of national GDP. NY is 9%.  LA is shut down, but as a result is the epicenter of new cases- when you confine people indoors they spread the virus, and that is exactly what is happening. In NY Cuomo is threatening to raise taxes to 14.7%-state and city, and they think anyone who has a high income will remain here??? Cuomo is an idiot, and almost as dumb as DeBozzo.

 

Reality check. The Market manufacturing index hit 59.1 in mid-January, the highest level in a decade, and services hit 57. Europe on the flip side, is headed back toward a possible recession due to the severe lockdowns. More reason we do not need any more spending on stimulus, testing, and BS money for schools and other waste. The economy is recovering, shots are being given by the millions per week and ramping up quickly, cases are in decline in the US. Maybe they can order NY, CA and MI to fully reopen and provide an enhanced PPP program for  restaurants in NY and CA, and for hotels, but that is all they need to do. Biden is lying about the situation on the negative as much, or more, than Trump lied about it on the positive side. It also proves lockdowns just create economic and human damage worse than the virus. There is sunshine at the end of the tunnel now, and we will be out of the tunnel by sometime in May, exactly as Azar and Fauci predicted.

 

Biden says he will immunize 100 million by 100 days like it is some great achievement that he is doing, when reality is it will be a total failure if that is all they do.  Shots are now over 1 million a day and reached 1.6 million on Friday. Let’s assume they reach an average of 1.3 million per day starting in Feb.  By using a different syringe they can get 6 shots out of a vial instead of 5. That means an immediate 20% increase in available shots by doing nothing more than using a different syringe which is already being mass produced.  It takes 72 hours for many local sites to report to CDC on shots given so the numbers of shots reported are three days old and not accurate. They already have done well over 21 million. So let’s assume they do 1.3 million per day on average. 100 days x 1.3million shots =130 million plus 21 million shots already administered is 151 million in 100 days, and that is BEFORE J&J shots are being given which will add a few hundred  thousand more per day by sometime in mid-Feb. So with J&J it should be another 18-20 million at a minimum by end of  April, total at least 170 million shots, which is what the Trump team including Fauci said it could be. There are another estimated 30-50 million  who have had the virus, often asymptomatic, so the real number covered by immunity by May could be 200-220 million. Biden is just giving BS goals making it sound like he actually accomplished something. When a reporter mentioned this, Biden blew him off and walked out of the press conference. The good news is that when we add those who already had the virus and so are immune, we will be over 200 million by May and approaching herd immunity. Ignore press reports of a mess.  It just took  two or three weeks for all the counties to get the shot process right, and now it is simply waiting for more vaccine to be produced. Walmart is starting to give shots in its 4000 stores.  CVS and Walgreens will follow shortly. In most of the country we don’t need FEMA or the National Guard to be deployed, nor more money. So Biden is misleading the press already to try to look like a hero. If they did nothing at all we will hit over 200 million immune by mid-May at the latest, and maybe 250 million if Astra Zeneca is approved soon.  Biden suddenly says now there is no way to change the trajectory of the virus. So why the lockdowns, mask mandates, and another $2 trillion of wasted spending proposed. Why did he say during the election that Trump did nothing, and he was going to change the trajectory, and now that he is in office he says there is nothing he can do.

 

I got my Moderna shot. Sarasota has a very efficient system that works extremely well. I was in and out in  35 minutes including the 15 minute post shot observation time, which was done is a very organized, efficient, and accurate way. They announced that the county was going to open a website registration page at noon on last Monday, and they then have an easy to fill in form. It took me less than 3 minutes. They then take you for an appointment in order of who signed up first and on down the list in order of sign-ups. The whole thing now is very orderly and works very smoothly. Shots are given at a large drive thru set up in a park. The only issue is waiting for new deliveries of vaccine.  They wait until they receive the drugs before they announce the reopening of  the drive through shot facility. So there are no cancelled appointments like NYC had to cancel 25,000 appointments they never should have set up since they did not have the inventory to give the shots. The first weeks it did not work this way, and it was not so smooth, but they fixed it. They did not need the feds, the National Guard, nor any new money to do anything to fix it.

 

There is little chance they can further speed up production of shots that is already running 24/7. Second shots are in inventory so there is no risk of not getting it. For the first shot you just go to the park on the day they tell you to come at a specified time, and that is it. They give you a card verifying that you got the shot so you can travel, plus there is a national data base. You just show up on the date they tell you and you get the second shot with no appointment needed. Health officials now say the reports that only half of shots in the field have been administered is false. It is that local officials have been slow to report how many have been given. Same as happened with testing. We don’t need more money for testing. Anyone can get a test anytime they wish anywhere in the US. Reality check.  Testing, what the Dems and press claimed was so essential, has done nothing to stop the spread. It spread regardless of mass testing. The issue is, most people do not get a test unless they feel sick, or are just overly worried, and as more shots are given, there is much less need for testing, so all that money Biden proposes for testing is a waste. Testing has been a talking point, not the magic answer that Biden and the press claimed.  Only the vaccine is the solution. I only know one person who got tested, and his wife had the virus which he then contracted, but never got really sick.

 

There are now stockpiles of PPE, and much more being produced. We don’t need added spending for that. Cases are now declining, as are hospitalizations. As more shots are given, and as more people contract the disease, it will continue to decline into the summer when things will be reopened. Ignore all the political chatter and fake news that there is a mess, and Biden solved the problem. It was already well on its way to being solved. The hypocrisy is, they blasted Trump saying he could not get the vaccine approved and produced, and if he did they would not take it since Trump could not be trusted, and now that he did it in record time, they complain it is not being produced fast enough. It was only approved in mid- November, 60 days ago, and there are already over 40 million doses in the field. They are already at over 1 million shots per day, so hitting 100 million on Biden’s schedule is already well along, or on the way to  being far surpassed. It is being produced for the entire world, so the US does not get 100% of production.  The US does get priority so be thankful you live here. I had zero reaction-not even a sore arm. They did promise my tennis game would be greatly improved. If you still need proof that lockdowns are counter-productive, S Dakota has never locked down and their unemployment rate is 3% now. Magically now Newsome is suddenly lifting the lockdown now that Trump is out and he may be recalled.

 

The experts finally admitted there is no accurate count of cases or deaths. The reporting is sloppy, inaccurate, and in many cases just wrong, as when hospitals reported it a as Covid death to get the 20% premium on reimbursement. Many asymptomatic cases never got reported, so it is possible millions more were infected and never really knew it, especially younger people. So whatever you hear on data on cases, or deaths, is not true. It might be more or less. There is another thing that is clouding the data badly. Here in FL, and I assume everywhere, everyone signs up for multiple county lists to get in the lottery to get a shot. So here everyone I know is on two or even four different surrounding county lists. So the wait lists have no validity. I spoke to the mayor on this, and he is going to try to convey this to the other officials, and maybe the governor. He said nobody had considered this in their planning. The only thing that is accurate is how many shots have been shipped out. That happened with testing, and is now happening with shots. So do not believe anything Biden says about shots given, or how he is going to fix the “mess”. It is pure political rhetoric. You would think that in today’s digital world there is no excuse for this incompetence or sallow reporting, but it is a fact. There is massive incompetence. Not every place does it so well as Sarasota which was better than any similar project I have ever seen. 

 

Nobody knows if 400,000 died of Covid, or maybe from some from other co-morbidity things. That headline number is nice for Biden and the press, but it ignores that there were almost no flu deaths this year so maybe 60,000 lives were saved. On the other hand, maybe more than 400,000 died, or will die needlessly due to not getting the doctor appointments they needed to detect cancer or other deadly diseases in time due to lockdowns. There are no numbers on this, so it does not get reported like the somber newscasters and Biden do it for the 400,000. Once again, do not just grab data that the media or politicians put out.  They are going to be false in most cases, and just tell a portion of the real story.

 

If Biden and the Dems continue to do the sorts of things he signed in the first 24 hours, the economy will boom short term based on the $1.5+ trillion of excess savings in consumers hands already, plus the excess stimulus that is coming, but it will be a short term sugar high. Eventually we will have job losses due to taxes and regulation,  $15 minimum wage, major new regulations on lenders which will make them very cautious to  lend as much as they would without all  the new regs, and prices of gas and food will rise much more, squeezing the low income population. With the probability of inflation starting, rates rising, and the higher taxes and regulations, the stock market will flatten out later in this year, or early next year, and stock returns for the next few years starting in 2022 will possibly be losses, or meager returns of maybe 5% or less.  No way to predict now.  Enjoy the stock market now while you can, it will not last. We might have a 15% -20% bump up this year, but if that happens, the down will be much worse. Once the vaccine is fully administered to 75% of people, and the federal stimulus and consumer savings is being spent, there is no more sugar to inject, and there will be the price to pay for the excesses being created now. The only unknown is when the downturn will begin, and how bad it will be, but it is coming. For reference, core inflation has not been above 2% since 2009, and has been near 2% since 2000. However we never had this confluence of really stupid economic and social policies before. The Fed has said unemployment needs to be at 4% before they will raise rates. They may not get that opportunity to wait. We simply do not yet know.

 

The US population is not really growing, and the cutback on immigration for several years has meant fewer educated workers coming in.  Now we will be flooded with illiterate and unskilled people on the dole. Not going to help grow the economy, but it sure will grow the deficit. Without merit immigration of at least one million per year, the economy is restrained on growth.

 

The attacks on Republicans now are out of control, and make any claim by Biden of ending the divisiveness a joke. Comey said the Republican party should be burned to the ground. Dems want the FBI to investigate Parler. They plan to go ahead with the impeachment which will just open the anger wounds. Doing it in 3 days and denying Trump his right to due process as they intend to try, will just infuriate everyone on the right. It is unconstitutional in any event to impeach a private citizen, so the whole thing is just vindictive politics, and bad for the country. Biden makes believe it is not of any concern to  him. But the press says nothing about that. Academia is now completely out of control. In one high school they claim that All Lives Matter is racist, and white suppression. I fail to understand that logic. Books are now banned by publishers if not compliant with left wing ideals, CNN continues with lies. It is ironic that in Portland and Seattle there were riots again, but Biden says nothing at all and the MSM does not even cover it now because they can no longer blame Trump.  Dems want to have Cruz and Hawley thrown out of the Senate and disenfranchise their voters. And now we hear that Amazon refused to help with Covid until Trump was gone. How sick is that. And they claim it is the Republicans who are the problem!

 

China has just done something that should really concern everyone. They sanctioned Pompeo and several other Trump people, and then said if any company hires them they will also be sanctioned. Think about the ramifications of that threat to try to control the actions of American companies and administration office holders through economic intimidation. It is bad enough we have American companies on their own refusing to publish books by Republicans, and others refusing to hire people from the administration, but for China to do that is really outrageous and Biden said nothing. China will now do more of that.  They learned from intimidating the NBA and Hollywood.

 

Bitcoin lost 30% this past week. This is why I have said if you like wild, unpredictable risk, go for it, otherwise stay away.

 

Some analysts, including Jerome Powell, are pointing to the earnings yield spread of stocks vs investment grade bonds which is now 249 BP. They claim that means stocks are not overvalued. I claim it is false analysis in that the Fed is keeping rates unrealistically low given the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus, and creating a false yield curve, which then distorts stock values on the upside. In addition the flood of cash being pumped into the banking system with the fiscal and monetary stimulus, and Fed bond buying programs, creates a false demand for stocks with rates at essentially negative real rates. Traditional stock analysis in now partially unimportant due to the skewing of the interest rate markets by the Fed. It is what is forcing multiples higher than they should be. It is similarly bringing Yellen to incorrectly say massive new fiscal spending is OK because rates are low. All of this is just setting up the next financial crisis.

 

In the end, Trump proved to be right, and the establishment in the swamp wrong, on many issues. The biggest one was the Mideast, where the establishment insisted he could not move the embassy, and the Palestinian issue had to be solved first. Trump proved them all  wrong. He took a private sector deal makers approach, and it worked. The Arabs all agreed with his approach, so now Biden plans to go back to the old failed approach. Trump is the only president in many years to not initiate a war. The press said he would start wars, but the opposite was true.  He instituted many policy ideas like tax cuts, deregulation and pro-business attitudes, and the result was the economy hit records for minorities, and the stock and housing markets hit records making middle class people worth more than they ever imagined. He gave minorities real jobs, not entitlements. Trump provided the deregulation push to give the world the vaccines in record time. Nothing like the time to success was ever possible before. As opposed to taking lives, Trump, with the vaccine, saved maybe hundreds of thousands of lives. He closed the southern border keeping out millions of unskilled labor and welfare recipients. Crucially he gave us energy independence which changed the whole geopolitical situation, and he clamped down Iran with sanctions, and was able to build an alliance of Arab nations against Iran. Biden intends to reverse that success He confronted China for the first time ever, and made the world fully aware of the existential threat China poses. Biden wants to make nice. He redid NAFTA to make it far more effective and better for the US workers. He did many other very good things, but he completely blew it with the post-election statements and the January 6 rally.

 

Hopefully Durham will show up with indictments for the attempted coup staged by Hillary and Comey and Brennan. That was as bad or worse than January 6, but nobody is paying attention. Is Congress going to charge Hillary when Durham comes out.  Pelosi thought the invasion of the Wisconsin capital was wonderful. Should she be impeached for that. My liberal friends say Trump was dangerous. What was Hillary and Comey, and Obama scheming to remove a duly elected president with a fake dossier? Trump’s instincts proved much better than the establishment swamp in DC. It was his warped personality that sunk him. Biden is now going back to the failed policies, and with the same old failed team in place. They learned absolutely nothing, and now think if Trump did something, it must be wrong despite proof that many of his actions proved right. Biden is taking us and the world back to a much more dangerous place. The swamp could not stand it that they were all wrong about the 2016 election, and had to invent the Russia hoax to try to get rid of this outsider who made them look stupid and incompetent when it came to the election and policy. They knew he would undo many of the really onerous regulations and bad policies, and they could not abide it. Trump, in essence, told the establishment that their religion of policy ideas of decades was a failure, and they could not let that happen. He tried to upend the election on Jan 6, the swamp spent 4 years trying to aggressively and illegally upend the election of 2016. If Trump had a different personality he could have gone down as a great president, and gotten reelected in a landslide. But he does not, and so here we are now with a left wing government that will set us back in ways that will take many years to fix again.  I believe in 2022 the voters will realize what a terrible mistake they made in 2020.

 

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