2014: How bad for Obama?

A political primer for 2014: How bad for Obama?

By Andrew Malcolm
Posted 01/03/2014 09:04 AM ET

We didn't want to jump the gun on 2014 midterm election coverage. So we waited until the third day of the first month.

With the Nov. 4 balloting only 305 days away and the president still playing golf on an island, the shape of at least one major campaign theme is crystal clear: ObamaCare, disaster or calamity?

Much is at stake politically across the country in the second midterm elections of any presidency that rarely go the president's way. Not just 435 House seats are up. But 36 of 50 governor's offices, of which the GOP now controls 29. A myriad of state and local races.

And probably most importantly, 36 of the Senate's 100 seats. Republicans need only add six more to make Happy Harry Reid an unhappy former majority leader. Now, you know why Harry and Barack chose the nuclear option this past fall to jam through as many of the White House's judicial and other nominations as possible on a simple majority vote.

Although Obama probably cannot claim further credit for killing Osama bin Laden, other things can go wrong.

But barring a major macfunkerlee by D.C. Republicans, one year from now that party will likely be resuming control of that chamber for the first time in nine years. Way back when that Chicago pol first began skipping roll-call votes to raise money and campaign for his next job.

Additionally, by the time Americans cast their votes 10 months from tomorrow, ObamaCare could be a politically terminal pre-existing condition with its soaring premiums, exorbitant deductibles, loss of family doctors and, coming to a workplace near you this summer, layoffs and more policy cancellations.

The political percussion has already begun. In Democrat-friendly Oregon, first-term Sen. Jeff Merkley, an ex-state legislator who rode into office on Obama's rented coattails, finds himself in trouble for his explicit support of ObamaCare.
Republican Monica Wehby, a doctor herself, is already running ads showing Merkley reiterating Obama's deceit about keeping your doctor and health plan.
Her tagline: "Keep Your Doctor -- Change Your Senator."

In New Hampshire, another first-termer, incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen must bear her outspoken ObamaCare support and pay the thankless price so many have over the years for trusting Obama and his convenient promises.

One devastating new ad links her with Obama's "Lie of the Year." Scroll to the bottom to watch this one: "If you like your senator, you can keep her. If you don't, you know what to do." Our friend, Chris Stirewalt, as usual has an insightful and comprehensive rundown of the most critical Senate races.


Perversely, what's helped to save Obama's south side is that his policies have chased millions of Americans out of the job market.

He's promised to focus his laser vision on creating jobs again this year, much as he did after his party's 2010 shellacking that cost

Nancy Pelosi her speaker's gavel.

But millions of discouraged job-seekers are no longer looking for work. Which means they are no longer counted as unemployed, allowing the unemployment rate to artificially dip to 7%.

If the U.S. labor force had the same participation rate today as it did when the country's top-ranking shaved-ice aficionado was elected, George Will calculates the genuine unemployment rate now would be 11.3%.

Enough for Democrats to plead with Obama to stay golfing on that island.

As it is, you'll likely see Obama doing his little fundraisers while local candidates find their schedules just impossible to appear on the same stage. Can you say George W. Bush 2006?

That year Democrats won Congress by tagging Republicans with the Iraq war and the country's general disaffection with Bush and GOP incumbents. Republicans lost six Senate seats and 31 in the House.

True, Congress' approval is worse than Obama's, according to polls. But Americans are worse hypocrites than their politicians; they routinely reelect 80% to 90% of those folks.

At the moment, it's hard to imagine better conditions for Republicans. They're defending fewer Senate seats. The economy is improved slightly, but polls show people don't believe it. Obama's approval is at its lowest point ever. His trustworthiness has tanked, a hard one to repair.

Disapproval of ObamaCare is at its highest. Young people are realizing their one-time hero Obama has tipped the insurance payment scales against them. One poll last month showed 67% of Americans wanted it delayed a year, while 53% would repeal it.

Anyway, midterms tend to favor Republicans, who are more diligent voters than Obama's cool crowd.

The party of only one president in the last century has gained congressional seats in his second midterm. And right now that ex-president's wife, who presided so poorly over Benghazi, is trying to separate herself from her Obama partnership, not embrace him.