An orderly separation from the EU should not be taken for granted.

BREXIT BLUES: An orderly separation from the EU should not be taken for granted.
Gideon Rachman:

If there was great goodwill on both sides, the negotiations could doubtless be accelerated. But that is where the politics come into it. There is already plenty of simmering ill will on both sides of the Channel. The British are hoping that, when the talks actually begin, things will calm down. In reality, it is more likely that the opposite will happen. The negotiating process will reveal the immense gap between the operating assumptions of the two sides. As a result, mutual acrimony will quickly increase — and talks could break down irretrievably.
The flashpoint is likely to be the EU’s estimate of Britain’s financial liabilities following Brexit, covering everything from money already pledged to the union’s budget to the pensions of retired bureaucrats. The estimates in Brussels are that the UK will be facing a bill of €50bn-€60bn.
That figure is likely to be greeted with outrage in the UK. The initial reaction will be to treat the EU’s financial demands as a bad joke or a clumsy attempt at blackmail. But the European Commission, which is running the negotiations, is highly legalistic and will be able to justify its figure. It will not yield easily.

What happens to the EU’s debts if the whole thing comes apart?

4Posted at 10:40 am by Stephen Green