Wednesday, November 16, 2016

JFarrish Nov 15




Buyers remain engaged

MARKET OUTLOOK: November 15th
Monday was of interest as the money flow towards the small caps, biotech and financials continued to lead the buyer's efforts. Crude helped the commodities with a bounce off support at the $43.40 level again which in turn, helped the energy sector. Technology, on the other hand, is struggling as the large cap stocks show sellers in control. Nvidia, Facebook Ebay, Yahoo and Google were all off more than 2.5% leading the downside in the sector. The earnings outlook for the sector has seen downgrades causing angst overall... rotation is still the driver for the broader indexes.
The S&P 500 index for the third time fails to move above the 2170 level as technology (XLK) remains a drag on the index. Healthcare (XLV) added some downside pressure to keep the index even on the day. There were 7 of the ten sector closing in the green, but that wasn't enough to offset tech. Financials (XLF) remain the upside leader gaining more than 2.5% with the banks enjoying the push higher in interest rates. The sector has made a vertical move since the election. Energy (XLE) bounced back from selling on Friday and industrials (XLI) helped round out the leadership for the broad index.
The trend shift in sectors is causing some frustration to investors as they continue to ask why versus following the leadership short term. The why is based solely on belief currently and as the belief spreads money moves. For now, money is flowing towards the belief that financials, biotech, and higher interest rates will benefit from a Trump presidency. True or not? Only time will tell! Take what the market gives with a defined strategy and risk management as the decision factors.
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