Electoral Map Spells Disaster For Dems This Election

Electoral Map Spells Disaster For Dems This Election

By J.T. YOUNG

 Posted 09/10/2014 05:37 PM ET




With Democrats close in generic ballot polling, can they be cautiously optimistic about November? Not at all.

Democrats' problem with generic ballots is that generic voters will not be voting in the election. The ballots that will decide control of the Senate will be cast by actual voters in actual places — neither of which favor Democrats.

Much has been made of the fact that despite Obama's unpopularity, nationwide polling of voters on their generic preference for which party controls Congress shows Democrats either with a narrow lead or trailing slightly.

In Real Clear Politics' recent averaging of the various generic ballot polling, Democrats had a slim 1.4% lead over Republicans. However, only the most superficial of analyses could overlook Democrats' serious problems lying beneath such figures.

The first is that such polling is nationwide. This gives Democrats advantages in large, dark-blue states like California and New York to offset their disadvantages in smaller red states.

As proof, Obama beat Romney 51% to 47.2% in the popular vote and swamped him 332 to 206 in electoral votes. However, overlooked is the fact that Romney won 24 states in 2012.

Second, Democrats are defending 21 states in November's Senate elections, while Republicans are only defending 14. To make matters worse, these states are ones that are not Democrats' strong ones.

Seven of the Democrats' defended states are ones that Romney won in 2012. Another 8 are states where Obama received less than 55% of the popular vote. In contrast, Republicans are defending just one seat won by Obama and just two where Romney received 55% of the vote or less.

Third, how people respond to pollsters does not necessarily translate into their actually going to the polls. In 2010, there were significant drops in the participation percentages of four key Obama constituencies from 2008: blacks fell 2%, 18 to 29-year-olds fell 6%, Democrats dropped 5% and liberals fell 2%.

Looking ahead to this November, 2012 offers another ominous warning: Among three of those — blacks, 18-29 year olds, and Democrats — their level of support for Obama was below their 2008 level.

Obama and his policies are now less popular than they were in 2012. This raises the possibility that not only will the drop in participation be repeated, but the drop in support may be as well.

Fourth, if Obama's unpopularity has caused attrition even within his core supporters' ranks, it's nothing compared to his level of unpopularity among independents and Republicans. McClatchy-Marist's latest nationwide poll showed Obama's approval rating was just 35% among independents and 7% among Republicans, while the disapproval ratings were 53% and 88%, respectively.

These are horrendous figures in themselves. But they are even worse when you consider these groups represented a combined 62% of 2012's presidential voters — and if Democrats drop again, as they did in 2010, they could be an even bigger portion of November's electorate.

Even if they are not, Obama's disapproval rating is outpacing his approval by more than 2 to 1 among these voters who will be an even bigger factor in the key Senate races.

While Obama's popularity remains relatively high (but diminished) among Democrats and liberals, these voters won't decide many of this November's Senate races.

The nationwide generic ballot polling results are actually dangerous for Democrats. In what will be many tough, close races, the last thing Democrats need is complacency threatening to depress turnout among their base. And not just among the voting base, but among the donating base as well. This is one reason you do not hear Democrat operatives trumpeting these generic polling results.

The generic-ballot polling results serve to wallpaper over a large and growing political crack. It is optics, not reality — show, not substance. It would be a huge miscalculation to imagine that you could hang a Democratic victory on it.

• Young served in the Treasury Department and the Office of Management and Budget from 2001 to 2004 and as a congressional staff member from 1987 to 2000.