What to Do When ObamaCare Unravels
Health insurance should be individual, portable across jobs, states and providers, and lifelong and renewable.
Dec. 25, 2013 3:51 p.m. ET
The unraveling of the Affordable Care Act
presents a historic opportunity for change. Its proponents call it
"settled law," but as Prohibition taught us, not even a constitutional
amendment is settled law—if it is dysfunctional enough, and if Americans
can see a clear alternative.
This
fall's website fiasco and policy cancellations are only the beginning.
Next spring the individual mandate is likely to unravel when we see how
sick the people are who signed up on exchanges, and if our government
really is going to penalize voters for not buying health insurance. The
employer mandate and "accountable care organizations" will take their
turns in the news. There will be scandals. There will be fraud. This
will go on for years.
Yet opponents should not sit back and revel in dysfunction. The Affordable Care Act
was enacted in response to genuine problems. Without a clear
alternative, we will simply patch more, subsidize more, and ignore
frauds and scandals, as we do in Medicare and other programs.
There
is an alternative. A much freer market in health care and health
insurance can work, can deliver high quality, technically innovative
care at much lower cost, and solve the pathologies of the pre-existing
system.
The U.S. health-care market is
dysfunctional. Obscure prices and $500 Band-Aids are legendary. The
reason is simple: Health care and health insurance are strongly
protected from competition. There are explicit barriers to entry, for
example the laws in many states that require a "certificate of need"
before one can build a new hospital. Regulatory compliance costs,
approvals, nonprofit status, restrictions on foreign doctors and nurses,
limits on medical residencies, and many more barriers keep prices up
and competitors out. Hospitals whose main clients are uncompetitive
insurers and the government cannot innovate and provide efficient cash
service.
We need to permit the
Southwest Airlines,
Wal-Mart,
Amazon.com
and Apples of the world to bring to health care the same dramatic
improvements in price, quality, variety, technology and efficiency that
they brought to air travel, retail and electronics. We'll know we are
there when prices are on hospital websites, cash customers get
discounts, and new hospitals and insurers swamp your inbox with
attractive offers and great service.
The
Affordable Care Act bets instead that more regulation, price controls,
effectiveness panels, and "accountable care" organizations will force
efficiency, innovation, quality and service from the top down.
Has this
ever worked? Did we get smartphones by government pressure on the 1960s
AT&T
phone monopoly? Did effectiveness panels force United Airlines
and American Airlines to cut costs, and push TWA and Pan Am out of
business? Did the post office invent
FedEx,
UPS and email? How about public schools or the last 20 or more health-care "cost control" ideas?
Only
deregulation can unleash competition. And only disruptive competition,
where new businesses drive out old ones, will bring efficiency, lower
costs and innovation.
Health insurance
should be individual, portable across jobs, states and providers;
lifelong and guaranteed-renewable, meaning you have the right to
continue with no unexpected increase in premiums if you get sick.
Insurance should protect wealth against large, unforeseen, necessary
expenses, rather than be a wildly inefficient payment plan for routine
expenses.
People want to buy this
insurance, and companies want to sell it. It would be far cheaper, and
would solve the pre-existing conditions problem. We do not have such
health insurance only because it was regulated out of existence.
Businesses cannot establish or contribute to portable individual
policies, or employees would have to pay taxes. So businesses only offer
group plans. Knowing they will abandon individual insurance when they
get a job, and without cross-state portability, there is little reason
for young people to invest in lifelong, portable health insurance.
Mandated coverage, pressure against full risk rating, and a
dysfunctional cash market did the rest.
Rather
than a mandate for employer-based groups, we should transition to fully
individual-based health insurance. Allow national individual insurance
offered and sold to anyone, anywhere, without the tangled mess of state
mandates and regulations. Allow employers to contribute to individual
insurance at least on an even basis with group plans. Current group
plans can convert to individual plans, at once or as people leave.
Since
all members in a group convert, there is no adverse selection of sicker
people.
ObamaCare
defenders say we must suffer the dysfunction and patch the law, because
there is no alternative.
They are wrong. On Nov. 2, for example,
New York Times
columnist
Nicholas Kristof
wrote movingly about his friend who lost employer-based insurance
and died of colon cancer. Mr. Kristof concluded, "This is why we need
Obamacare." No, this is why we need individual, portable,
guaranteed-renewable, inexpensive, catastrophic-coverage insurance.
On Nov. 15, MIT's
Jonathan Gruber,
an ObamaCare
architect, argued on Realclearpolitics that "we currently have a highly
discriminatory system where if you're sick, if you've been sick or
you're going to get sick, you cannot get health insurance." We do. He
concluded that the Affordable Care Act is "the only way to end that
discriminatory system." It is not.
On
Dec. 3, President
Obama
himself said that "the only alternative that Obamacare's critics
have, is, well, let's just go back to the status quo." Not so.
What
about the homeless guy who has a heart attack? Yes, there must be
private and government-provided charity care for the very poor. What if
people don't get enough checkups? Send them vouchers. To solve these
problems we do not need a federal takeover of health care and insurance
for you, me, and every American.
No other country has a free health market, you may object. The rest of the world is closer to single payer, and spends less.
Sure.
We can have a single government-run airline too. We can ban FedEx and
UPS, and have a single-payer post office. We can have government-run
telephones and TV. Thirty years ago every other country had all of
these, and worthies said that markets couldn't work for travel, package
delivery, the "natural monopoly" of telephones and TV. Until we tried
it. That the rest of the world spends less just shows how dysfunctional
our current system is, not how a free market would work.
While
economically straightforward, liberalization is always politically
hard. Innovation and cost reduction require new businesses to displace
familiar, well-connected incumbents. Protected businesses spawn "good
jobs" for protected workers, dues for their unions, easy lives for their
managers, political support for their regulators and politicians, and
cushy jobs for health-policy wonks. Protection from competition allows
private insurance to cross-subsidize Medicare, Medicaid, and emergency
rooms.
But it can happen. The first step is, the American public must understand that there is an alternative. Stand up and demand it.
Mr. Cochrane is a professor of finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, a senior fellow of the
Hoover
institution, and an adjunct scholar of the
Cato
institute.
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