Rove "Map" Update 09/05

Now, it's Nevada, Michigan shifting torward Romney in Rove electoral map

By ANDREW MALCOLM
Posted 09/05/2012 10:08 AM ET

Karl Rove's newest State of the Race commentary:
"Mitt Romney gained ground in two important swing states according to polls conducted during the week of the Republican National Convention.
"Both Nevada and Michigan moved from "lean Obama" to "toss up" status. Barack Obama strengthened in one state, Connecticut, which moved from "lean Obama" to "safe Obama." This gives Mr. Obama 184 "safe" Electoral College votes with four states (41 EC votes) that "lean" in his favor going into the Democratic National Convention.
"While Mr. Romney has 146 "safe" EC votes and four states (45 EC votes) in his "lean" column. With this week's additions of Nevada and Michigan, the number of "toss up" states is the highest since this map began in April, with nine states (122 EC votes) too close to call for either candidate."
BACKGROUND: We launched a special new feature in this column last month. From now through election day we will be publishing the famous electoral map of the presidential race designed and researched by veteran political strategist Karl Rove.
It's a custom-made 50 state-by-state breakdown of the race at this moment in time, based upon the latest polls from each state. (Scroll down for Rove's full methodology.)
You may want to bookmark each of these maps (Here's the first week's map. Here's the second map, Here's the third published on Aug. 14. And the fourth published here on Aug. 28. Then you can refer back and track any changes in all 50 states as the campaigns unfold from now through both party conventions and on through the entire fall's general election contest up through Nov. 6.
This map will now appear weekly through election day.
This new feature comes thanks to special permission from Rove, whose website is Rove.com and Twitter handle is @KarlRove. We recommend following him and regularly checking his website, which contains a variety of information on the presidential contest, polls and other links.
The deputy chief of staff and senior adviser to former President George W. Bush also has a free weekly newsletter on politics including his Thursday columns for the Wall Street Journal. Subscribe on his site's homepage.
NOTE: Texas has been changed to "safe Romney" status in order to get an accurate outlook of the playing field. As Joe Trippi and I discussed on Special Report last week, this is a safe GOP state that has not been polled in recent history and will unlikely have many presidential polls conducted in the days remaining until the election. Its 38 Electoral College votes have been moved to previous "safe Romney" totals as well as is reflected in the map's trend line.

NBC News

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Rove's Methodology:

For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 30 days of the most recent poll available in each state. For example, if the most recent poll in Ohio was taken on April 15, 2012, the average reflected on the map includes all polls conducted between March 15 and April 15, 2012.
States within a three-point lead for the Republican or Democratic candidate are classified as toss-ups; states between a five-to-eight-point lead for the Republican or Democratic candidate are classified as "lean" for that candidate; states outside the eight-point lead are allocated to the respective party. Please note: for some states, the most recent polls available at this time are up to one year old and other states with no polling yet available have been classified Republican or Democrat based on their 2008 results.