Monday, August 31, 2015

JFarrish: 08/31 MARKET OUTLOOK:

MARKET OUTLOOK:
Mix bag to start the week with a couple of issues of interest. First, healthcare fell 1.8% led by the biotech sector off more than 3% on Monday. Second, the utility sector fell 1.6% and has erased the bounce off the July lows. This doesn’t set a positive tone going forward and it puts the retest of the previous low in play. The sellers are still attempting to take control of the broad markets as seen in today’s activity.
The blame was given to China to start the day then the rumors about the Fed hiking interest rates at the September FOMC meeting were circling again as interest rates on the ten-year bond jumped to 2.2%. The thirty-year  bond  is now at 2.93% and TBT broke through resistance again at the $44.76 mark.
The NASDAQ 100 index fell 1.1% with the large cap biotech leading the downside move. The Russell 2000 index held up the best of the major indexes forfeiting only 0.3% for the day. Energy was the one positive light on the S&P 500 index gaining 1.2% as crude oil spikes higher to $48.50 on the day. Speculation at it’s best relative to the production levels with OPEC and the US. One comment of interest around crude oil rise is, it stemmed the selling in US stocks! It very well could have, but I am not buying the rationale.
Tomorrow starts the economic data with manufacturing data offering a look at how the economy is growing. Then of course on Friday we will end the week with the jobs report… promises to add some excitement to the party. The bigger question; will this get lost in the China news and rhetoric? We will see how it unfolds. All of the indexes were down on Monday with the exception of energy. Not a good sign to start the week maybe the economic data will offer a boost.
Gold (GLD) caught support near the $107 mark and continued the move modestly higher on Monday. Silver (SLV) reversed and moved back to the upside and holding above the previous support of $13.80…watching how it unfolds. Crude oil (OIL) rose 7.2% or nearly 23% the last three days on a meeting request by Venezuela with OPEC. Throw in the lower output data for the US and why wouldn’t it rise. This is not a supply/demand story it is a speculation story leading the price higher. Tight stops if you own it and watch to see what happens.  Agriculture (DBA) was attempting to put in a bottom again and watching. Base metals (DBB) climbed off the low as the metals attempt to establish a bottom. The dollar is up on a ‘V’ bottom reversal to watch as $25.20 resistance now in play.
The market tallying by sector for the current trends of the ten sectors for S&P 500 index. No change from the upside bounce. The tally stands at nine downside, zero upside and one sideways trend. This clearly puts the downtrend in play short term or the sellers have control as seen on Monday. Energy may be creating a bottom reversal potential on the jump in crude oil price with another move today. Watching how this all plays out, but there are still plenty of issues to manage as we go forward.
Global markets followed the US with a bounce last week and started the week flat on Monday. Europe (IEV) was flat. China (FXI) struggling to gain confidence as the rumor mill keeps volatility in play and dropped 1.2%. Emerging Markets (EEM) bounced off the lows, but still needs catalyst confirmation to keep upside going. Japan (EWJ) was up and forming a nice ‘V’ bottom reversal. The global markets did show some positive moves off the lows, but this is where most of the concern is going forward relative to the economic picture. Watching for confirmation. Stalling in response to concern over China.
We remain mostly in cash with the bounce off the lows of interest along with the test today. I am in no hurry to deploy capital where the risk/reward doesn’t line up. We continue to scan for opportunities, but too much chop currently and the VIX remains elevated with the uncertainty. There are some interesting patterns setting up in the charts. There are plenty of bear flags or pennants that showed validity today and that is worth watching on the downside. Willing to remain patient and see how this unfolds going forward.
My favorite news of the day was the unlucky Illinois lottery winner getting an IOU from the government. The budget has no yet been approved and until it is no check for the $250,000 winning ticket. Why no budget? $5.4 billion needed in spending cuts to balance the budget… of course the legislators don’t want the cuts to spending. That shows the state of entitlements, pensions and healthcare in that state… and maybe the broader country.

new NLRB ruling - Pushing Progressive Agenda

FIGHTING THE FUTURE:

President Obama and the progressives in his Administration believe that by fighting this trend—and the NLRB ruling is intended to do exactly that—that by forcing corporations back into the old patriarchal model of a politically-defined and regulated patron-client/employer-employee relationship, they are fighting for the economic interests of poor people and the lower middle class most directly, but also indirectly and to a lesser extent for the rights of all workers. Union activists believe the same thing, passionately and sincerely.
What they don’t see is that the genie can’t be stuffed back in the bottle. All the king’s horses and all the king’s men can’t put blue Humpty Dumpty together again. Take the fast food industry, for example, an industry that virtually every economic and social policy of the contemporary progressive movement is trying to maim. From the $15-an-hour minimum wage in the industry demanded by New York to the fight against fast food on nutritional grounds by the Broccoli Police and the Nutrition Nannies, to this new NLRB ruling mandating that the employees of franchises be considered for certain regulatory purposes employees of the parent companies, the progressive movement is trying to do to McDonalds and related companies what Bill deBlasio and the taxi lobby want to do to Uber.
industryThe net effect of these changes will be to narrow the choices of food that poor people have, to raise the price of the food they have to buy, and to accelerate the automation of the restaurant industry, further reducing the already limited number of jobs open to people with few skills. Progressives will look on the consequences of this disaster and conclude that with urban unemployment higher and the cost of living for the poor rising, we obviously need more food stamps and rent subsidies—and so we must impose heavier taxes on the companies and industries that are still profitable in order to pay for these necessary benefits.
They’re not actually stupid. They’re pursuing a policy that produces more power for progressives, regardless of its effect on their alleged clients.

OBAMA’S STONEWALL TACTICS: A CASE STUDY

OBAMA’S STONEWALL TACTICS: A CASE STUDY

The Obama administration has proved to be the least transparent in our modern history. To an unprecedented degree, the administration is staffed by scofflaws who flout their legal obligations. When confronted with requests for information, let alone actual investigations, Obama’s habitual response is to stonewall. This strategy has been remarkably successful in avoiding accountability, in part because legal processes are so slow.
We have seen this pattern dozens of times. One instance, which is highlighted by a federal court order issued on Friday, illustrates how the administration has operated from the beginning of Obama’s term in office.
The story, which we have written about several times, begins in August 2010. Austin Goolsbee, who directed Obama’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board and later chaired his Council of Economic Advisers, delivered a press briefing in which he discussed corporate income taxes. He casually asserted that Koch Industries, one of America’s largest privately-owned companies, doesn’t pay any income taxes:
So in this country we have partnerships, we have S corps, we have LLCs, we have a series of entities that do not pay corporate income tax. Some of which are really giant firms, you know Koch Industries is a multibillion dollar businesses. So that creates a narrower base because we’ve literally got something like 50 percent of the business income in the U.S. is going to businesses that don’t pay any corporate income tax.
If Koch Industries is an S corp, then its owners (principally Charles and David Koch) pay individual income taxes on the company’s profits, making them by far the largest individual taxpayers in the United States. Be that as it may, one of two things must be true: either Goolsbee had illegally accessed Koch Industries’ tax returns, or he made it up. So Koch askedthe administration whether someone had been illegally scrutinizing its tax returns. The administration refused to answer.
That led to a Freedom of Information Act request, which was served by a group called Cause of Action on October 9, 2012. The request covered just eight categories of documents, of which these were the key ones:
3) Any communications by or from anyone in the Executive Office of the President constituting requests for taxpayer or “return information” within the meaning of § 6103(a) that were not made pursuant to § 6103(g);
4) All documents, including notes and emails, referring or relating to any communication described in request #3;
Cause of Action wanted to know whether Goolsbee, whose office fell within the Executive Office of the President, or someone working under him, had asked for taxpayer “return information.” The administration eventually produced a handful of irrelevant documents and a comprehensive list of objections. Obama’s key objection was that the IRS is legally prohibited from producing documents responsive to requests 3 and 4 because doing so would violate the taxpayer’s–Koch Industries’–privacy.
The fact that a legal position is ludicrous never prevents the Obama administration from asserting it. Having exhausted its administrative remedies, Cause of Action commenced a FOIA lawsuit against the IRS. Cause of Action and the IRS made cross-motions for summary judgment, briefing on which was completed in August 2014. On Friday, almost exactly one year later, Federal Judge Amy Jackson issued an order in which she overruled the Obama administration’s claim that it couldn’t say whether the White House had broken the law by accessing taxpayer information:
Congress amended section 6103 in 1976 “in the wake of Watergate and White House efforts to harass those on its ‘enemies list,’” in order to “restrict[] government officers and employees from revealing ‘any return’ or ‘return information,’” id. at 611, and its “core purpose” is to “protect[] taxpayer privacy.” Id. at 615. So, this Court questions whether section 6103 should or would shield records that indicate that confidential taxpayer information was misused, or that government officials made an improper attempt to access that information.
The IRS argues that “section 6103’s definition of ‘return information’ . . . makes no distinction based on the purpose for which a person might seek disclosure of the documents.” Def.’s Reply at 15. But accepting this argument would require a finding that even requests for return information that could involve a violation of section 6103 constitute “return information” that is exempt from disclosure under FOIA Exemption 3 and section 6103. The Court is unwilling to stretch the statute so far, and it cannot conclude that section 6103 may be used to shield the very misconduct it was enacted to prohibit.
So someday–not any time soon–the IRS will finally be forced to answer the question that Koch Industries asked it five years ago, in 2010. The Obama administration’s strategy is always the same–stonewall, assert every possible theory, no matter how frivolous, and try to run out the clock. Whether an honest answer to the question will be given, years after the fact, is of course another question.
The Obama administration’s lawlessness is perhaps its most repellent legacy

ObamaCare Rate Hikes Are For Real

Yes, Those Shocking ObamaCare Rate Hikes Are For Real

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Health Care: When insurers requested huge rate hikes for their 2016 ObamaCare plans, we were told not to worry because state regulators would force them down. But that's not happening. Death spiral, anyone?
In Alaska, the state regulator approved a 39.6% rate increase for Moda Health, and Premera Blue Cross Blue Shield of Alaska got a 38.7% hike.
BlueCross BlueShield of Tennessee asked for and got a 36.3% boost in premiums. Oregon's insurance commissioner approved a 25.6% increase for Moda, the biggest insurer on its ObamaCare exchange. In Kansas, ObamaCare enrollees will face increases of up to 25.4%.
In the pre-ObamaCare days, rate hikes of this magnitude, no matter how rare, would have been cited as proof positive of the need for ObamaCare-type changes. But these eye-popping jumps are showing up across the country, and ObamaCare itself is to blame.
The law's mixture of heavy-handed market regulations, mandated benefits, taxes and fees have sharply increased the cost of insurance, with no end in sight.
Undaunted, ObamaCare backers say that in many states, regulators succeeded in cutting back on some requests, and that premiums in some states didn't go up all that much. But calling a 14% increase a victory because it wasn't 21% isn't a victory for those still faced with a substantially more expensive product.
Fact is, insurers had real claims data to back up their rate hikes, giving regulators little wiggle room. When New Mexico refused to let that state's Blue Cross Blue Shield raise premiums enough to cover its costs, Blue Cross decided to pull out, which will force 35,000 ObamaCare enrollees to find another provider.
In some states, regulators themselves forced premiums up more than insurers requested. Oregon's commissioner told Health Net to raise its premiums by 34.8% instead of the 9% the company had in mind.
In Florida, insurers asked for rate hikes averaging 8.6%. The increase finally approved was 9.5%.
For those eligible for tax subsidies, these premium hikes won't matter much. But for the many who aren't, it means ObamaCare is putting affordable insurance even further out of reach. That's a pretty big failure for a law that is officially titled the "Affordable Care Act." 

EPA Has Gone Too Far

EPA Has Gone Too Far — Rein It In, Or Get Rid Of It

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Regulation: A federal judge has once again slapped down the Environmental Protection Agency, this time for its attempt to seize control of virtually all water, anywhere in America. Is there no end to the EPA's overreach?
Judge Ralph Erickson minced no words in condemning the EPA's attempt to control much of America's privately held land by regulating the water on it, calling the EPA regulation "inexplicable, arbitrary and devoid of a reasoning process."
Erickson issued an injunction in the 13 states that sued. But the EPA, never one to give up a power grab, says it will impose its rule on the rest of us anyway.
Under the Clean Water Act, the EPA has regulatory power over "navigable" waters and any tributary to those waters. The EPA has stretched that definition to the breaking point, essentially saying if a piece of land is wet, it's the EPA's to regulate as it sees fit.
"The rule asserts jurisdiction over waters that are remote and intermittent waters," Erickson wrote in his injunction. "No evidence actually points to how these ... wetlands have any nexus to a navigable-in-fact water."
The EPA interpretation would lead to private land owners having to ask permission from the government to do anything. It would give the EPA sweeping control over almost all private land in America.
This abuse by the Obama administration of its regulatory powers isn't an isolated incident. It's a pattern.
In June 2014, the Supreme Court blocked Obama's EPA from implementing some of its draconian new rules on CO2 emissions.
In June of this year, the court ruled that the EPA had "unreasonably" failed to consider the cost of its new coal regulations.
And as far back as 2011, the D.C. district court threw out EPA restrictions on cement manufacturers, saying the agency ignored its own rules and due process in imposing costly restrictions on cement makers.
In 2012, the Competitive Enterprise Institute's Wayne Crews estimated EPA regulations cost America $353 billion a year. With a recent surge in absurdly expensive rules — including the $1.1 trillion ozone regulations just put in place — that cost is soaring.
The EPA is out of control. Like the rest of our expanding federal bureaucracy, it has seized power the Constitution never intended it to have — power that diminishes states' sovereignty and the rights to private property. The EPA must be reined in — or abolished.


Read More At Investor's Business Daily: http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/082815-768792-judge-calls-new-epa-water-rule-inexplicable.htm#ixzz3kOpkR8HG
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Sunday, August 30, 2015

So Much for Projecting Future : 2009 Flashback

2009 ABC Report Pictured Apocalyptic Climate Effects [VIDEO]

dailycaller.com
US

Flashback: ABC News Envisioned Apocalyptic 2015 Triggered By Climate Change [VIDEO]

1:53 PM 08/29/2015
 
ABC News ran a news special in 2009 called Earth 2100, a program warning its viewers about the dangers of climate change.
ABC News correspondent Bob Woodruff says the show “puts participants in the future and asks them to report back about what it is like to live in this future world. The first stop is the year 2015.”

A Harvard University professor says, “We’re going to see more floods, more droughts, more wildfires.”
Other voices can be heard saying that “Flames cover hundreds of square mile” and “We expect more intense hurricanes.” Another voice says, “Well, how warm is it going to get? How much will sea level rise? We don’t know really know where the end is.”
Describing dangerous temperature levels and dropping agricultural production, the news package brings in The Weather Channel’s Heidi Cullen, who says, “There’s about one billion people who are malnourished. That number just continually grows.”
The doomsday predictions for 2015 go further and include $12.00 for a gallon of milk and $9.00 a gallon for gasoline, if there is any gas at all that is left.
Newsbusters notes that then GMA anchor Chris Cuomo, who teased the special at the time, said to Woodruff of the predictions, “I think we’re familiar with some of these issues, but, boy, 2015? That’s seven years from now. Could it really be that bad?”
Woodruff replies, “It’s very soon, you know. But all you have to do is look at the world today right today. You know, you’ve got gas prices going up. You got food prices going up. You’ve got extreme weather. The scientists have studied this for decades. They say if you connect the dots, you can actually see that we’re approaching maybe even a perfect storm. Or you have got shrinking resources, population growth. Climate change. So, the idea now is to look at it, wake up about it and then try to do something to fix it.”

Donald Trump and the Other Class Warfare - VDH

Donald Trump and the Other Class Warfare

When democratic masses tire of being condescended to.

by Bruce S. Thornton // FrontPage Magazine
Photo via FrontPage Magazine
Photo via FrontPage Magazine
The rise and continuing popularity of Donald Trump reminds us that “class warfare” is an eternal constant of democracies, for as Plato said, every city is in fact two cities, “one the city of the poor, the other of the rich; these are at war with one another.” But possession of wealth is not the only factor in this eternal conflict between the few and the many. The masses of course resent the elites’ greater wealth, but even more they dislike the assumption of superior wisdom and virtue that elites have always claimed as justifications for their status. It is this galling assumption and the anger it arouses in people that Donald Trump has brilliantly exploited.
Many Republicans correctly see that this popular anger is usually directed against progressives. The typical Democrat reflexively assumes that he is smarter and better educated, thinks more “scientifically,” and has more cultivated tastes than the masses in flyover country who cling bitterly to their guns and religion, as the President once said. All true, but many in the Republican elite often display the same attitudes. We saw this in some of the responses to Trump’s remarks on immigration. Lindsey Graham called Trump a “wrecking ball,” and Jeb Bush said Trump’s remarks were “unfortunate” and advised, “We must have a more civil policy debate in this country.” In other words, it wasn’t the truth of Trump’s remarks that mattered, but their déclassé tone. Similarly, John McCain has called Tea Partiers and Trump followers “crazies” and “wacko-birds.” The implication is that social inferiors and ignoramuses are meddling in the business of their betters.
The people may be “uninformed,” as faux conservative columnist David Brooks said in explaining Trump’s popularity. But they know when they are being condescended to, and they’re good at detecting when a leader supposedly on their side behaves as though decorum and elite solidarity are more important than truth and principle. John McCain provides another example. In 2012 he attacked Congressman Michele Bachmann and four other Congressmen for raising questions about Hillary Clinton aide Huma Abedin’s family connections to the jihadist Muslim Brotherhood. From the floor of the Senate McCain blasted the “unwarranted and unfounded attack on an honorable woman, a dedicated American, and a loyal public servant” whom he considers a “friend” attacked “without concern for fact or fairness.”
To many conservatives, it seemed that elite inside-the-Beltway bonhomie was more important to McCain than determining whether or not his word “unwarranted” was just begging the question. Nor did he seem interested in whether or not it was a bit dangerous to have the chief officer of our foreign policy establishment, the Secretary of State, so close to someone intimately linked to an ideology inimical to this country’s security and interests, particularly at a time when the administration was advancing the cause of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.
That sort of political good-old-pols-club solidarity is what angers many people. They are also sick of the carefully parsed and qualified and nuanced and poll-tested statements that are yet another device for avoiding the truth and hiding true motives. They sense that “insiders” with their bespoke suits and college degrees and smooth rhetoric are patronizing them and sacrificing their interests and principles. They get that the constant calls for “civility” and “decorum” are camouflage for the grubby pursuit of personal power and advancement, and a disdain for the common folk. Perhaps that’s why Trump’s dismissal of McCain’s status as a war-hero did not exact the price one would have expected, given the high regard Americans have for veterans. Perhaps many people figured that McCain had for too long made a career out of waving the bloody shirt rather than challenging the progressive status quo bankrupting the country and endangering our security and interests.
Or take the establishment Republicans who dismiss the disorder and crime created by illegal immigration, and call for “comprehensive immigration reform.” Many can see that this “reform” will be a reprise of the 1986 “reform”––all amnesty and no border enforcement–– that helped create today’s mess. A lot of ordinary people who live among concentrations of illegal aliens have to put up with a level of daily crime and disorder that well-heeled Republicans never experience. These people resent the implications that they are “xenophobes” and “nativists” harboring racist sentiments. They see a problem that needs fixing, but all that many in their party give them is the same old “nation of immigrants” bromides, rhetorical cover for ensuring a steady supply of cheap labor for capitalist cronies. So why should we be surprised that Trump’s blunt talk on immigration struck such a chord, especially when followed by several murders of Americans at the hands of felonious illegal aliens allowed to roam free?
Finally, the political elite’s deference to the media is yet another sign to many that Republican politicians belong to the same club of insiders that includes the D.C. press corps. Many people are sick of Republicans preemptively cringing before reporters who are so obviously on the side of progressives, and who never subject Democrats to the same level of scrutiny and aggressive questioning. That’s why Trump’s followers like him––he shows obvious scorn for the media, even Fox News. He doesn’t buy the media’s nonsense about being “objective” purveyors of news or “watchdogs” of the public weal rather than the partisan hacks most of them are. One cannot imagine Trump letting Candy Crowley blatantly help out a debate opponent the way Mitt Romney let her bail out Obama during their 2012 debate.
Whether these perceptions are true or fair is not the point. Democratic politics in an age dominated 24/7 by the visual more than the verbal is mostly built on perceptions that become a political reality. Just look at the outsized reputation of John F. Kennedy, a confection not of achievement as much as marketing, or that of Obama, completely a creation of collective racial neuroses and perceptions disconnected from the reality of the man’s mediocre achievements. Trump gets that, and he knows that the more the elites call him “vulgar” the more a lot of people will like him and perceive him as a foe of the elites. He “tells it like it is,” as the cliché goes, and so appears more genuine and honest, a plain-talking regular guy.
Trump’s willingness to brutally slap down the pretensions of the elite establishment makes his wealth irrelevant. Indeed, his billions endear him even more. In this Trump reminds me of the aristocrat Alcibiades of ancient Athens, who bragged about his lavish spending, understanding that the masses often will forget their envy of wealth if a leader turns against his own class and their arrogant assumption of superiority.
Since the rise of the Tea Party this traditional dynamic of democratic politics has defined the Republican Party. Senator Ted Cruz has been the most visible vessel of this anti-elite sentiment, calling for strong legislative action rather than for nostrums about “bipartisanship” and “reaching across the aisle,” which many see as fancy talk for the collusion of elites from both parties in keeping the Federal Leviathan well-fed. But Trump has greater advantages––the independence of private wealth, high name recognition from his years on television, and a lack of verbal nuance and hair-splitting that delights the masses, who since the time of Athenian comedy have enjoyed seeing the pretensions and arrogance of the elite subjected to scorn and insult.
Whether tapping into this ancient impulse can carry Trump to the nomination, let alone the presidency, is another matter. But the Republican Party had better take heed of the anti-elitist sentiments that have always roiled the democratic masses. By election day next year Republicans will have controlled Congress for two years, and they’d better have something more to show for it than a bipartisan trade agreement and endless appearances on Fox News and Meet the Press.

The Democrats: Too Old and Too White?

The Democrats: Too Old and Too White?

Leftwingers’ taunts in 2008 and 2012 have come back to haunt them.

by Victor Davis Hanson // National Review Online
Photo via NRO
Photo via NRO
In the jubilation of the Obama election victories of 2008 and 2012, the Left warned Republicans that the party of McCain and Romney was now “too old, too white, too male — and too few.” Columnists between 2008 and 2012 ad nauseam berated Republicans on the grounds that their national candidates “no longer looked like America.” The New York Times stable crowed that the Republicans of 2008 were “all white and nearly all male” — not too long before McCain chose Sarah Palin as his running-mate. In reaction to the defeats of McCain and Romney, Salon and Harper’s ran stories on the “Grand Old White Party” and “Angry White Men.”
For Democratic progressives, Hawaiian Barack Obama could not be of mixed ancestry and decidedly middle class, but simply “black” or “African American” — as if he had shared the Jim Crow experience of Clarence Thomas. Nor was there any allowance that race itself had become hard to sort into neat categories in a nation of immigration, intermarriage, and assimilation, in which millions of Americans were one-half this and one-quarter that. Rachel Dolezal and Shaun King proved that well enough by successfully constructing themselves as white for quite a long time.
Liberals had reversed the vision of Martin Luther King Jr.: The color of our skin, not the content of our character, is what matters. Superficial appearance, the ossified politics of the tribe — the curse of the world outside the United States, where corpses have piled up in the Balkans, Rwanda, and Iraq — alone mattered. Identity politics dictated that a shrinking white insular conservative party lacked the Democrats’ “inclusiveness” and “commitment to diversity.” Icons like Barack Obama were what mattered.
So we come to 2016, and the Democrats, of all people, are suddenly in danger of being the washer calling the dryer white. Who exactly are the serious and not so serious presidential candidates of each party?
On the Republican side, there is plenty of diversity as defined by liberals — Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, Bobby Jindal, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio.
And on the Democratic side? The only representative of “diversity” is Hillary Clinton, who counts by virtue of being female, but who is white and soon to be 68, a fixture on the national political scene for more than a quarter of a century. Her claim on the nomination seems to be that it’s “her turn,” as if Democrats in the post-Obama era nominate their candidates on the basis of seniority and waiting patiently in line. Her status and connections are apparently seen as exempting her from the consequences of violating federal laws that apply to other public servants.
Her opponent is, in traditional liberal parlance, an old white guy and equally a political fixture, the 73-year-old socialist Bernie Sanders, independent senator from Vermont, who has been running for or holding some office for the last 40 years.
What happens if the Democrats cannot choose between an avowed socialist who is not registered in the party whose nomination he seeks, and Hillary Clinton, who has a felony-indictment sword of Damocles over her head?
It is said that perhaps Secretary of State John Kerry might run, a 71-year-old white guy who has done nothing but politics for the last 30-plus years. He followed Clinton as secretary of state, so why not also as presidential candidate? But if Kerry’s loss in the 2004 presidential race, or his ponderous and pontificating style, still grate on Democrats, there are plenty of other old white guys who could step up.
Al Gore is sometimes mentioned, a 67-year-old white male and former Washington insider. But if Gore’s propensity for occasional hysterics and his multimillion-dollar green hypocrisies are a problem, the Democrats can turn to 72-year-old white guy Vice President Joe Biden. Biden has been a Washington fixer who has done nothing outside of politics for the last 40 years.
If Clinton, Sanders, Gore, and Biden are seen in liberal lingo as “too white and too old” — and if 77-year-old white guy Jerry Brown does not jump into the race, as is sometimes rumored — then the party can turn to one of two other white-guy candidates: 52-year old Martin O’Malley or 69-year-old Jim Webb. Or perhaps Al Sharpton could revive his presidential ambitions?
In fact, so far, the monotonous sameness of the serious and semi-serious Democratic contenders is multifaceted and eerie. Almost all come from the same narrow geographical corridor — Delaware, Maryland, Massachusetts, Vermont, Virginia, and Washington, D.C. Their motto in the 21st century seems to be “Stay east, old man.” Maybe they are channeling the much-caricatured Founding Fathers, the old-white-guy elites from the Eastern Seaboard who governed a mostly white country.
So far, on the list of declared or likely Democratic candidates, there is not a Texan, Louisianan, or Californian among them.
The serious Democratic candidates are also all creatures of politics — no outlier brain surgeons, ophthalmologists, CEOs, or entrepreneurs among them.
Many also are presidential-candidate retreads. Gore failed to win the 2000 presidential election. Kerry failed to win the 2004 presidential election. Clinton and Biden both failed to capture the 2008 Democratic nomination. The liberal caricature of Romney in 2012 was that he was an old-white-guy has-been — yet again running for office.
But perhaps Democrats define true diversity by both race and class, as in the 2012 tarring of Romney as an out-of-touch 1-percenter, who hated the “47 percent” and did not deign to have coffee with his minority garbage man. Do we remember poor John McCain, who, liberal late-night-talk-show hosts joked, could not remember just how many houses he and his multimillionaire wife actually owned?
The Clinton team may be worth over $200 million — a staggering figure for lifelong public servants. But they discovered a brilliant strategy for quid-pro-quo speaking and shakedown consulting — channeling pay-to-play donations through a foundation. The latter’s major expense was jetting the pair around and paying their unemployed functionaries between election cycles.
Al Gore may be even wealthier. How does a lifelong politician become astronomically rich? In good Marcus Licinius Crassus style, he hyped the fires of climate change and then offered his own brand of fire-extinguishers to put them out: various green videos, speeches, learning packets, schoolbooks, etc. Gore, the advocate of eliminating the internal-combustion engine, made a killing by selling a bankrupt cable station to the carbon-rich and oil-exporting Qatar-owned Al Jazeera, which spews anti-Semitic hate over the air waves. Gore the tax-raiser, who sees more taxes on the wealthy as the fuel that runs necessary redistributionist big government, rushed to cement the Al Jazeera deal in time to beat anticipated Obama-administration hikes in capital-gains taxes.
There is no need to mention the lack of financial diversity of John Kerry. He was married once to a multimillionaire heiress, divorced her, and is now married to the billionaire widow of the late Republican senator John Heinz.
Bernie Sanders is a man of his word: His own relative financial modesty matches his equality-of-results rhetoric.
Is there any diversity to be found?
Isn’t Hillary the feminist candidate — who, unlike vice-presidential candidate Sarah Palin, for liberals really counts as a female, because of her progressive credentials? Perhaps. But by the usual feminist definition of a properly liberated woman, Clinton is found wanting. Without her marriage to Bill Clinton, there would be no political career for Hillary Clinton. Early on, she hitched her star to the politically talented though often dissolute Bill Clinton. In good stand-by-your-man style, she dug in during his serial womanizing, impeachment, and lawsuits by aggrieved former female liaisons, many of whom, in speaking-truth-to-power fashion, claimed that Clinton’s advances were forced and manipulative. For the 2016 race, such devotion apparently has finally paid off.
We live in strange times, with r-trilling local newswomen and the fake ethnic fides of the Ward Churchills, Elizabeth Warrens, Shaun Kings, and Rachel Dolezals, who claim fabricated minority identities for the sake of career advantage and leftwing politics — and in accord with the postmodern idea that we can construct ourselves into any gender or race we wish. Being “minority,” supposedly subject to long-held bias by white, privileged Americans, can mean being an impoverished illiterate newly arrived from Mexico, or it can mean being a third-generation Portuguese American, without fluency in any Latinate language and with no firsthand knowledge of the grandparents’ homeland — or being a middle-class Hawaiian prep-schooler whose exotic nomenclature was reclaimed when it proved advantageous in adulthood.
Nevertheless, this is the bizarre world of identity politics that the progressive movement wanted. These are the rules that they imposed on the nation when a legion of Barack Obamas was announced as America’s future and that of the pace-setting Democratic party. Thus, by their own illiberal standards, they stand convicted of illiberality.
For the present gang of 2016 Democratic presidential hopefuls, leftwing politics demands no penance for being “too old and too white.”

nun - n short for Nasrani

LETTER IN FACEBOOK PROFILE PICS?

Arabic-Nazarene
Have you noticed the picture above? Lots of my friends on facebook have been using this as their profile picture during the last 24 hours. It’s an Arabic letter for ‘N’ short forNasrani which is Arabic for Christian (followers of Jesus from Nazareth).
Apparently ISIS (Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham) have been painting it on the houses of Christians in the city of Mosul in Iraq. Basically these Christians are being asked to either a) convert to Islam, b) pay a ridiculously high tax or c) be killed. Pretty crazy stuff. Thankfully many Christians have come up with a fourth option and d) fled.
My Christian friends are using it as their picture as a mark of solidarity with our Iraqi brothers and sisters. It’s only small, but it’s one way of expressing a desire to be bound with them.
You can read more about the events:
Keen to do more than change your profile picture? Barnabas Fund is currently raising money to support Iraqi Christians.
I’ve written often about persecution on this blog. Christians believe that Jesus is someone worth losing everything for. If you’ve never taken time to consider Jesus, a good place to start would be considering who He iswhy He came and what it means to follow Him.

Thursday, August 27, 2015

APPLE Death Cross Chart

Apple’s stock may be headed for bear-market territory
Slide 1 of 5
One bearish chart for Apple Inc.’s stock doesn’t a bear market make…but how about four scary-looking charts?
Apple shares AAPL, +1.40%  have stabilized just above multi-month lows, but this slideshow of charts warns that not only should investors be wary of buying the stock, but that a further selloff into bear-market territory could be right around the corner.
First is an impending bearish “death cross” pattern, in which the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average. This pattern is seen by many as marking the spot that a shorter-term decline graduates into a longer-term downtrend.
While the validity of the “death cross” has been widely debated, the last time one appeared, just as the stock was pulling back from record highs, the stock fell another 27% in four months.
Based on the current trajectories of Apple’s 50-day and 200-day moving averages, a “death cross” should be confirmed in a little over a week, or at least by the end of the month.
The fact that so many “death cross” patterns have appeared recently in major market indexes as well as in individual stocks for the first time in nearly two years suggests the current broad market weakness is different than the short pullbacks that occurred earlier this year, and in October 2014.
Adam Sarhan, CEO of financial advisory firm Sarhan Capital, said he turned bearish on Apple’s stock earlier this month, after being bullish for about 1 1/2 years, because it broke below key support, including the 200-day moving average.
“When you see a major break in a stock like Apple, that means the big institutions are selling, not buying the stock,” Sarhan said in a phone interview with MarketWatch. “We saw this in 2012.”
Sarhan sees the next support area around the January lows below $105.
That would put the stock below the bear market threshold—a decline of at least 20% from a significant high, which was $133 on Feb. 23 in Apple’s case—of $106.40.
“Until the technical damage is repaired [with a rise back above the 200-day moving average], the path of least resistance is down,” Sarhan said.
apple - Dea

Wednesday, August 26, 2015

Carbon Offsets May Have Dramatically Increased Emissions.

GREEN CORRUPTION: Carbon Offsets May Have Dramatically Increased Emissions.

That’s the finding of a new report from the Stockholm Environment Institute, which investigated carbon credits used to offset greenhouse gas emissions under a UN scheme. As one of the co-authors of the report put it, issuing these credits “was like printing money.” . . .
The SEI sampled 60 random projects and found a whopping 80 percent of them to be of questionable green merit. The majority of these bogus Russian and Ukrainian offsets were used by the European Union’s Emissions Trading System (the EU ETS), a program already bogged down with problems pricing carbon. “[T]he poor overall quality of [Joint Implementation] projects may have undermined the EU’s emission reduction target by some 400 million tons of CO2,” said Anja Kollmuss, one of the leaders of the study.
This has huge implications, then, for Europe’s green goals. For years EU members have chosen to outsource emissions cuts with these carbon credits, but the lack of proper oversight at the UN level of the projects abroad supposedly generating these cuts now leaves the supposedly eco-conscious bloc in a bind. “If the EU was taking its climate targets seriously, then at least 400 million ETS certificates would have to be deleted to counter that,” Kollmuss pointed out.
But perhaps worst of all are the perverse incentives the SEI report alleges these credit swaps have created for actually increasing emissions. According to a study released in the journal Nature Climate Change, plants in Russia “increased waste gas generation to unprecedented levels once they could generate credits from producing more waste gas,” resulting in an increase in emissions as large as 600 million tons of carbon dioxide—roughly half the amount the EU’s ETS intends to reduce from 2013 to 2030.

It’s like the whole thing is just one big scam.

Iran, the Munich Comparison, and the Abuse of History

The Iranian deal has called to mind the Munich Agreement of 1938. Then Britain and France signed away the sovereignty of Czechoslovakia, in hopes that Adolf Hitler would be content with absorbing the German-speaking Sudetenland borderlands and cease further territorial acquisitions. But that appeasement only accelerated Nazi atrocities, from Kristallnacht at home to the dismemberment of all Czechoslovakia and, the next year, the invasion of Poland.
Is the Munich disaster a sound analogy for the current proposed agreement with Iran?
The Obama administration and its supporters say no. And they have offered a variety of odd arguments. How can anyone compare the once most powerful state in industrial Europe with the current, relatively isolated, and backward Iran, whose theocracy supposedly poses a far smaller threat than did Adolf Hitler’s Wehrmacht?
But is that assumption really true?
For all the later talk of Blitzkrieg in 1939-40, Hitler in 1938 was fairly weak. He had no model of tank that matched French heavy armor. Combined British and French aircraft production exceeded Germany’s, and in most cases allied planes were as good as German fighters and bombers. By 1940 Britain alone would be producing more fighter aircraft than Germany. In 1938-9, the combined infantry forces of the Western democracies — Britain, France, Denmark, Belgium the Netherlands and Norway — exceeded those of the Wehrmacht.
In the east, the Soviet Union alone fielded far more tanks, planes, guns and men than did Germany in 1938. Czechoslovakia, in the Skoda Works, had one of the most dynamic arms industries in Europe as well as extensive fortifications on the German border. Had the Polish, Czechs, and Russians united and stood firm, Hitler would have either backed down or would have been defeated — at a time when he was vastly outnumbered on his vulnerable Western borders.
The combined British and French fleets alone deployed about ten times more capital ships than did Germany, which never built a single aircraft carrier or deployed a single successful four-engine bomber.
In short, Hitler’s enemies in 1938 collectively enjoyed more military strength than did Germany. What they lacked was cohesion, a common cause, and a willingness to turn their military assets into credible deterrence. Hitler instinctively fathomed such fecklessness. In methodical fashion, he isolated Czechoslovakia, then attacked Poland with the help of the Soviet Union, then gobbled up Denmark and Norway — all in separate and rather distinct campaigns. When he finally invaded France in May 1940, he assumed rightly that his new partner, the Soviets, would keep supplying him with key resources, the British army would not show up in force in the manner they had in World War I — and the Americans would keep completely out it.
In every regard, Hitler brilliantly judged the appeasing mentalities of his far more powerful enemies. Only a horrific war restored a grim reality to Hitler’s Nazis. By late 1943 the Third Reich had been brutally reminded that Britain, the Soviet Union, and the United States really were far more powerful than Germany all along.
Iran now de facto runs Lebanon. It props up what is increasingly a puppet state in Syria and all but controls Iraq, while attempting to take over Yemen and erode Sunni authority in the Gulf. The regional Sunni states — including Egypt, Jordan, the Gulf states, Turkey, and Pakistan — together are collectively far stronger than Iran. But like the Western democracies and their eastern allies in 1938, each nation apparently prefers, in the paraphrase of Churchill, to be eaten last by the crocodile, and thereby eschews collective forceful deterrent action.
The ascendance of ISIS complicates matters. Sunni nations are in the embarrassing position of being threatened by fanatical kindred Arab Sunni terrorists who in turn are often checked by Iranian Shiite expeditionary forces. In the same vein, the Soviet Union once muddied the waters after the destruction of Poland: for a while the democracies found themselves siding with Finland, against an aggressive Russia, even as Hitler stealthily also wished to help the Finns against his newfound partner the Soviet Union.
Iran is as military weak as was the 1938 Third Reich. But like Hitler’s Germany, Iran fancies that its ardor and brinkmanship constitute military assets far more valuable than mere carriers or planes. Like Hitler, the theocracy believes loud bluster and perhaps even feigned insanity offer real advantages against those who are sober, judicious, and intent on avoiding the use of force at all costs. Are “Death to America” and constant threats from Teheran — even as negotiations of the non-proliferation deal were still fluid — all that much different from Hitler’s scoffing that his interlocutors at Munich were “worms”? Acting as if one has nothing to lose is advantageous in geostrategic poker.
Do Iran’s various promises of ending the Jewish state in the 21st century sound all that much more unhinged than Hitler’s crackpot ideas in the mid-1930s of solving the “Jewish question”? The Obama administration has obsessed about American culpability in the 1953 Western overthrow of Mohammad Mossadegh (and in typically ahistorical fashion forgets that mullahs rallied against the Shah-appointed Mossadegh, who had at times cut short elections and coerced the parliament to grant him emergency powers). Is a coup over 60 years ago now reason to overlook Iranian bellicosity — in the fashion that guilty Allied powers once attributed their soft responses to Hitler to unease over the Versailles peace treaty ? Note that in these cases, the Mossadegh affair and Versailles were used by aggressors to leverage Western appeasement.
In 1938 the West was frightened about the specter of slow-moving and near obsolete but quite loud and scary Stuka dive bombers, and puny but nonetheless numerous Panzer Mark I and II tanks. The idea that Hitler’s Germany in 1938 was a military colossus is quite absurd. In contrast, in 2015 the West is rightly afraid of an Iranian nuclear bomb — a single weapon that might allow the Iranians more destructive power than the combined carry weight of all of Hitler’s Luftwaffe bombers of 1938. An otherwise weak Iran in 2020 — but one armed with 4-5 nuclear bombs and short-range missiles capable of reaching most of the Middle East and parts of southern or eastern Europe — could do far more damage to the region than the Germans could to their neighbors in 1938.
The danger of an aggressor is never just the specter of raw power, but instead the insidious messages about using what it has that it sends to more responsible parties. Once Chamberlain and Édouard Daladier backed down at Munich, the Soviets concluded that friendship with Western democracies was as dangerous as enmity to Hitler, and thus flipped their affinities. Other opportunistic Eastern European nations soon realigned with Hitler. So-called neutrals like fair-weather Sweden, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, and Turkey conducted lucrative trade deals with Hitler and made the necessary adjustments to fit what they saw as an ascendant Third Reich. If the Iranian deal goes through, and if it is perceived as an economic, political, and military boon to the theocracy, then the surrounding and terrified Middle East will likely make the necessary political modifications to allow for Iranian expansionism.
There are other disturbing Iranian parallels to Munich — and to all examples of appeasement from the Greek city-state appeasement of Philip II, to the accommodations of European monarchies to Napoleon’s early rise, to the license given Stalin to absorb Eastern Europe at Yalta. The appeasers always pose as peace-makers and caricature their skeptics as near troglodyte war-mongers.
We are seeing this predictable caricature as well, as the Obama administration keeps insisting that there was no alternative to the deal other than either an apocalyptic nuclear Iran or yet another ill-starred Western preemptive attack in the Middle East — even as sanctions had crippled the Iranian economy to the point that the theocracy in extremis limped to the negotiation table seeking relief.
Today we see a Munich-like arrogance that men of assumed reason and sobriety, by their winning charisma, rare mellifluence, or superior wisdom, can convince Khamenei of the errors of his ways. Western humanists habitually preen that they can demonstrate to authoritarians why their bellicosity is supposedly against their own self interests — as if autocratic aggressors envision risking war, and shorting their own people, as unimaginable evils in comparison with the acquisition of honor, glory and respect that follows from easily bullying neighbors and successfully gobbling up real estate. John Kerry believes that the bomb is not in Iran’s real interest; Iran believes that so far even the idea of a bomb most certainly has proved very much in Iran’s interest.
As the democracies negotiated away Czechoslovakia to Hitler at Munich, the Japanese and Italians had earlier offered the world clear instruction about the wages of appeasement. Their serial aggressions in China and East Africa throughout the late 1930s had sated neither dictatorship, but rather convinced both that there were lots of weak countries that could be safely harvested without incurring a larger war with the West.
While John Kerry ignored the long-term security of Israel and the Sunni states in the Middle East, Vladimir Putin had earlier demonstrated that Ossetia led to the Crimea that led to Eastern Ukraine that may well soon lead to the Baltic states. Failed reset no more wised up John Kerry than Abyssinia or Manchuria had enlightened Neville Chamberlain. Munich’s 1938 hype led to catastrophe in 1939, in a way that the current 2015 self-congratulation may well become frightening in 2016.
The Iran deal is not Munich, but the same naiveté, vanity, and foolishness of Western leaders are close enough to warn us about what happens next. And it will not be good.

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