Saturday, January 28, 2012

Larry Summer's memo - Before Stimulus


Those still wondering why the Obama administration surrendered so quickly on the drive for stimulus and joined the deficit reduction crusade, got the smoking gun in an article by the New Yorker's Washington correspondent Ryan Lizza. Lizza revealed a 57-page memo drafted by Larry Summers, the head of the National Economic Council, in the December of 2008, the month before President Obama was inaugurated.

The memo was striking for two reasons. First, it again showed the economic projections that the administration was looking at when it drafted its stimulus package. These projections proved to be hugely overly optimistic.

They showed that even without stimulus, job loss would peak at around 5 million in the 4th quarter of 2009. They projected that the economy would then begin to add jobs at a fairly rapid pace, regaining all the lost jobs by the end of 2011. In this non-stimulus baseline scenario, the unemployment rate never rose above 9.0%, which it would hit in the winter of 2010.

In reality, the economy had already lost almost 7 million jobs by May of 2009, the month when the first stimulus dollars were going out the door. The job loss didn't stop until February of 2010, at a point where the economy had lost 8.5m jobs. Even with the benefit of the stimulus, the economy is still down by more than 6m jobs from its pre-recession level.

The unemployment rate had already hit 9.4% when the stimulus first started to be felt in May of 2009. It eventually peaked at 10.0% in October of 2009.

In short, the economy was clearly in much worse shape than was implied by the projections that the Obama administration used in crafting its stimulus. In fairness to the Obama administration, these projections were in keeping with the consensus among economists at the time.
The other striking part of this memo is the concern with "bond market vigilantes". The memo discusses the need to focus on the medium-term deficit with the idea of reaching deficit targets by 2014. The highest deficit target listed in the memo for this year was 3.5% of GDP. The memo also includes calculations with a deficit target of 2.5% of GDP, and a balanced budget.

The deficit for the fiscal year that ended last October was 8.5% of GDP. Depending on how the payroll tax debate, the extension of unemployment benefits and a few other issues get resolved, the deficit is not likely to be very much lower in 2012.
This means that getting from a 2012 deficit near 8.0% of GDP to even the 3.5% target for 2014 would require some very serious budget cuts in an economy that will still be suffering from massive unemployment. The difference between a budget deficit of 8.0% of GDP and 3.5% of GDP is equal to almost $700bn annually.

To reach the lower targets that were favored in the memo would require even more heavy lifting. In short, the Obama administration made plans that were quite obviously based on a far too rosy view of the economy. While this favorable assessment was the prevailing view at the end of 2008, what is inexplicable is why the administration never appears to have strayed from its original path – even when it became clear that the economy was doing far worse than projected.

The memo discusses the need to both convince the markets of its seriousness about deficit reduction and to gain the support of "blue dog" Democrats, who were wary of excessive stimulus spending. However, these concerns should have been shelved as the job loss data for January, February and March came in, showing the economy losing close to 700,000 jobs a month.
The administration should have taken this opportunity at the very beginning of Obama's presidency to explain that the economy was actually in worse shape than they had realized and that much more stimulus would be needed. No one could blame the administration for the jobs that were lost in the first two or three months that he was in the White House.

Remarkably, though, the administration did not veer from the course described in this memo in spite of the conflicting economic data. In fact, President Obama began touting the "green shoots of recovery" at a point where the economy was still shedding 400,000 jobs a month.

And he argued for the need to shift the focus to deficit reduction. To show he was serious in this effort, he appointed his deficit commission. One co-chair was former Senator Alan Simpson, who had established a reputation as big-time proponent of cuts to social security and Medicare; the other co-chair was Morgan Stanley director Erskine Bowles.
In short, while the data was crying out for more stimulus, the Obama administration openly embraced the need for deficit reduction, effectively slamming the door on the prospect of further stimulus. The basis for this original sin can be found in that December memo, which, unfortunately, provided the administration's game plan long after it should have been clear that it had been superseded by events.
 

Friday, January 27, 2012

JG - Disgusting SOTU Message

President Obama’s State of the Union address was disgusting.
  Jonah Goldberg

The president began with a moving tribute to the armed forces and their accomplishments. But as he has done many times now, he celebrated martial virtues not to rally support for the military, but to cover himself in glory — he killed Osama bin Laden! — and to convince the American people that they should fall in line and march in lockstep.

He said of the military: “At a time when too many of our institutions have let us down, they exceed all expectations. They’re not consumed with personal ambition. They don’t obsess over their differences. They focus on the mission at hand. They work together.

Imagine what we could accomplish if we followed their example. Think about the America within our reach.”

That is disgusting.

What Obama is saying, quite plainly, is that America would be better off if it wasn’t America any longer. He’s making the case not for American exceptionalism, but for Spartan exceptionalism.

It’s far worse than anything George W. Bush, the supposed warmonger, ever said. Bush, the alleged fascist, didn’t want to militarize our free country; he tried to use our military to make militarized countries free.

Indeed, Obama is upending the very point of a military in a free society. We have a military to keep our society free. We do not have a military to teach us the best way to give up our freedom. Our warriors surrender their liberties and risk their lives to protect ours. The promise of American life for Obama is that if we all try our best and work our hardest, we can be like a military unit striving for a single goal. I’ve seen pictures of that from North Korea. No thank you, Mr. President.

Of course, Obama’s militaristic fantasizing isn’t new. Ever since William James coined the phrase “the moral equivalent of war,” liberalism has been obsessed with finding ways to mobilize civilian life with the efficiency and conformity of military life. “Martial virtues,” James wrote, “must be the enduring cement” of American society: “intrepidity, contempt of softness, surrender of private interest, obedience to command must still remain the rock upon which states are built.” His disciple, liberal philosopher John Dewey, hoped for a social order that would force Americans to lay aside “our good-natured individualism and march in step.”

This is why Obama’s administration believes a crisis is a terrible thing to waste. This is why Obama has been prattling about “Sputnik moments” and sighing over his envy of China and its rulers. This is why his spinners endeavored to translate the death of bin Laden as some sort of vindication of his domestic agenda: because he cannot lead a free people where he thinks they should go.

At the end of his address, Obama once again cast the slain bin Laden as the Vercingetorix to his Caesar. (Vercingetorix was the defeated Gaulic chieftain whom Caesar triumphantly paraded through Rome.) “All that mattered that day was the mission. No one thought about politics. No one thought about themselves,” Obama rhapsodized.

The warriors on the ground “only succeeded . . . because every single member of that unit did their job. . . . More than that, the mission only succeeded because every member of that unit trusted each other — because you can’t charge up those stairs, into darkness and danger, unless you know that there’s somebody behind you, watching your back. So it is with America.”
“This nation is great because we worked as a team. This nation is great because we get each other’s backs.”

No. Wrong. It is not so with America. This nation isn’t great because we work as a team with the president as our captain. America is great because America is free. It is great not because we put our self-interest aside, but because we have the right to pursue happiness.
I don’t blame the president for being exhausted with the mess and bother of democracy and politics, since he has proved so inadequate at coping with the demands of both. Nor do I think he truly seeks to impose martial virtues on America. But he does desperately want his opponents to shut up and march in place. And he seems to think this bilge will convince them to do so.

What I can’t forgive, however, is the way he tries to pass off his ideal of an America where everyone marches as one as a better America.

It wouldn’t be America at all.

Monday, January 23, 2012

Mexico Drug-War into US

Mexico's Murderous Drug War Spills Over U.S. Border


Posted 01/20/2012 06:39 PM ET

The Border: Eighteen months ago, Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer was excoriated for warning of spillover from Mexico's war reaching our soil. Well, beheadings are becoming common now. Yet that war is still ignored.

Leading the charge in the summer of 2010, Washington Post columnist Dana Milbank blasted Republican Gov. Brewer for claiming that Arizona's "law enforcement agencies have found bodies in the desert either buried or just lying out there that have been beheaded."

Brewer did admit she was in error at the time, but that's not what really interested Milbank and his fellow media minions.
I
n his column, Milbank cast Brewer's claim as misinformation intended to scare people into thinking violence from illegal immigration is worse than it actually is.

"Border violence on the rise? Phoenix becoming the world's No. 2 kidnapping capital? Illegal immigrants responsible for most police killings? The majority of those crossing the border are drug mules? All wrong," Milbank wrote.

He wasn't the only one to pile on — CBS and the Guardian also jumped in.

Just one problem, though. Brewer may have jumped the gun months ago, but cartel beheadings have become a reality in Arizona — and are now jumping to other states.

Four months after the Arizona governor spoke, the first grisly cartel beheading occurred — in Arizona. Martin Alejandro Cota-Monroy's body was found Oct. 10, 2010 in Chandler, in what police believed had been a revenge attack for stealing cartel drugs.
 
 
A year later and 600 miles north in Oklahoma, the victim was not a person involved in the drug trade, but a 19-year-old human trafficking victim, Carina Saunders, who was killed by suspected cartel members to frighten another teenager into joining the cartel.
Three months later, in Tucson, another headless body was found on a desolate stretch of road.

Just this month, in Hollywood, Calif., the same sort of headless body was found in a canyon by some dog walkers. Police are saying they think the last two may be linked.

If so, it looks like the work of Mexico's cartels, says former Drug Enforcement Administration supervisor Phil Jordan. "It would lead me to believe the message wanted to be sent," he told KRGV television in Texas.
What's seen here is the very swift regularization of crime that, until recently, was thought to be Mexico's problem.

Brewer made her then-errant call for more vigilant border enforcement and was blasted by the media as if there wasn't an underlying problem.

Now the problem has grown, and the worst aspects of the Mexican drug war are flowing northward, becoming as hideously normal here as they are there.

That portends considerable trouble in coming months as what's "normal" grows ever more hideous.

Will car bombs be next? Twitterers and journalists be hanged from bridges? Political leaders corrupted and killed? Villages be emptied and their residents made refugees?

Just Friday, the Mexican government reported that the 2,276 war-related deaths in Mexico's Chihuahua state alone topped all civilian deaths in Afghanistan in the first 11 months of 2011 (2,177). A civilian in the state of Chihuahua had a nine times greater chance of being killed than an Afghan.

Now that war has spread here, the threat sounds extreme. But then again, so did Brewer when she warned of beheadings in the desert — and was mocked for it.

One thing is certain: They're here now.

So where are the mainstream media that had been so quick to criticize Brewer for calling attention to the very serious issue of Mexico's vicious drug war, which is now spilling over onto American soil?

Franklin Raines - MIA

Franklin Raines, Ghost Defendant


Posted 01/20/2012 07:17 PM ET

Subprime Scandal: Obama adviser Franklin Raines is glaringly absent from an SEC lawsuit against Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac executives for defrauding investors. How convenient.

Raines first plunged Fannie into the subprime abyss as its chairman and chief executive from 1999 to 2005 while cooking the mortgage giant's books to score fatter bonuses for himself and other Democrats on its board.

In its complaint against Fannie, however, the Obama administration covers only the period from 2006 to 2008 and names Raines' successor and former protege, Daniel Mudd, as the main defendant. Raines is nowhere to be found in the SEC's 60-page court filing.
Instead, Mudd and two of his top aides are accused of covering up the full extent of Fannie's subprime exposure. But that exposure and cover-up began under Raines, who rolled out Fannie's first subprime mortgage line, known as Expanded Approval.

The program let Fannie's customers rubberstamp borrowers who would have been formerly classified as "Refer with Caution" by Fannie's automated underwriting system.

Raines had Fannie buy billions of dollars worth of the risky mortgages, which were described in internal emails as "clearly subprime," to meet "affordable housing" quotas set by HUD. In May 2001, Mudd wrote a memo to his boss warning that EA loans "are the highest default risk loans we have ever done."

It was also under Raines that Fannie partnered with Countrywide Financial to buy, in increasing volumes, the subprime lender's Fast & Easy no-documentation mortgages. These loans were specifically targeted toward borrowers with weaker credit histories.

When these high-risk loans started defaulting by the mid-2000s, Fannie did not include them in its portfolio disclosures to Wall Street. It claimed a fraction of the subprime exposure it actually had.
 
But Fannie's mission regulators in Washington were perfectly aware of the subprime exposure. After all, it was HUD that set them on that dangerous path in 2000 when it raised the affordable-home loan target to fully 50% of total mortgage holdings — and demanded Fannie specifically load up on subprime home loans to meet the higher target.

The new policy remained in effect through late 2004, when Raines was forced to resign under an ethical cloud, and beyond.
Raines, who was appointed to Fannie's board by President Clinton, coordinated the reckless foray into subprime with former HUD chief

Andrew Cuomo, who announced the new goals in 2000, explaining:
Fannie's and Freddie's "expanded presence in the subprime market could be of significant benefit to lower-income families, minorities and families living in underserved areas."

Raines was fully on board the scheme. "We have not been a major presence in the subprime market, but you can bet that under these goals we will be," Raines said at the time. "We can bring lower-cost credit to thousands and thousands of African-American families."
By 2004, Raines scrambled to find even more subprime loans to meet the goals. That year he begged lenders gathered at the Mortgage Bankers Association of America's annual convention in San Francisco for more subprime loan production.
"We have to push products and opportunities to people who have lesser credit quality," Raines said.
While Raines was soliciting subprime loans, the subprime market exploded from 7% of the mortgage industry in 2001 to a peak of 25% in 2004.

Raines makes his protege Mudd look like the paragon of prudent banking. But the administration in its belated lawsuit tries to pin everything on Mudd, while the prime suspect gets off scot-free.
Let's hope the case goes to trial, because Mudd in his defense might have a thing or two to say about the reckless course his old boss set him on. It's Raines whose name should be mud.

01/22/2012 Ignoring History (WWII Hitler - 2012 Iran)

Still ignoring history
By Jack Kelly







http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | Everything that was important to know about him was laid out in his memoir/manifesto: his virulent racism; his contempt for Christianity, democracy and all things Western; his murderous hatred of the Jews.
Adolf Hitler dictated "Mein Kampf" ("My Fight") to Rudolph Hess while in Landsberg prison in 1923. After Hitler became chancellor (prime minister) in 1933, a second edition, published in English and French as well as German, sold more than a million copies.
Within a month of assuming office, Hitler began converting Germany into a dictatorship -- just as he'd said he would in "Mein Kampf."
He would seize land for lebensraum (living space) in the Slavic countries to the east, Russia especially, Hitler said in his manifesto. But when British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain and French Premier Edouard Daladier met with Hitler in Munich in September 1938, they chose to believe the Sudetenland represented the end of his territorial ambitions. By sacrificing their ally Czechoslovakia, they hoped to secure "peace in our time."
Chamberlain and Daladier chose to believe this because it would have been uncomfortable politically for them to acknowledge the truth. Liberals today delude themselves about the Muslim Brotherhood, for, I suppose, the same reason. But pretending a man-eating tiger is a pussycat doesn't make it so.


FREE SUBSCRIPTION TO INFLUENTIAL NEWSLETTER

Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in the media and Washington consider "must-reading". In addition to INSPIRING stories, HUNDREDS of columnists and cartoonists regularly appear. Sign up for the daily update. It's free. Just click here.




The Muslim Brotherhood (Ikhwan) was founded in 1928 by Hassan al-Banna, an Egyptian schoolteacher. He sought a world wide caliphate governed by Islamic law (Sharia). "Allah is our objective," says the Ikhwan's motto. "The Prophet is our leader. Jihad is our way. Dying in the way of Allah is our greatest hope."
Al Banna admired Hitler. He had "Mein Kampf" translated into Arabic. The Nazis subsidized the Muslim Brotherhood. The ranks of the SS Handjar Division were filled mostly by the Ikhwan.
The Muslim Brotherhood is today the world's largest and best financed Islamist organization. It's in 70 countries, including ours.
The Ikhwan's goals haven't changed, the current supreme leader said Dec. 29.
"The Brotherhood is getting closer to achieving its greatest goal as envisioned by its founder, Imam Hassan al-Banna," said Dr. Muhammad Badi. "A government evolving into a rightly guided caliphate and mastership of the world."
"Mein Kampf" is still, after the Koran, the Ikhwan's favorite book. "This stuff we now see in the Islamic world looks like Nazism because it comes from the Nazis," wrote journalist Claire Berlinski on her blog Ricochet.
In a 2009 sermon, Yusuf al-Qaradawi, the Muslim Brotherhood's leading jurist, said: "Thoughout history, Allah has imposed upon (the Jews) people who would punish them for their corruption. The last punishment was carried out by Adolf Hitler. ... Oh Allah, count their numbers and kill them, down to the very last one."
The Muslim Brotherhood supports terrorism against Israel, Americans, the Shiites in Iraq. But because it plans to get power the way Hitler did, many liberals view the Ikhwan as benign. President Barack Obama even chose Mr. Qaradawi to mediate peace talks with the Taliban.
In elections Jan. 8, the Muslim Brotherhood won the most seats in the lower house of the Egyptian parliament. Islamist parties won nearly two thirds of the seats. The new speaker they chose is a member of the Ikhwan.
Elections for the upper house begin in late January. The presidential elections are in June. If the Muslim Brotherhood wins control of the government, it eventually will try to impose Sharia and hold a referendum to abrogate the peace treaty with Israel.
The Ikhwan are likely also to dominate the new government in Libya, where the regime of secular dictator Moammar Gadhafi was felled by NATO bombs, and in Syria, should secular dictator Bashar al-Assad fall there.
Against all evidence, President Jimmy Carter in 1970 told himself the mullahs in Iran were moderate reformers. Against even more evidence, Mr. Obama regards the Muslim Brotherhood pretty much the same way. We're paying still a heavy price for Mr. Carter's egregious misjudgment. A greater miscalculation, with more profound consequences, looms.

Sunday, January 22, 2012

2012 FIVE ENERGY STOCKS

The energy sector has long been a popular area for investment. From oil companies in Texas and Oklahoma to solar enterprises in California, energy has been the source of big profits for many people. In spite of the market pressures that exist today, this is still a very good place to invest, and smart investors are doing well. Among the multitude of possibilities that exist on Wall Street, five must-own energy stocks are Quicksilver Resources Inc (KWK), Southwestern Energy Co (SWN), Anadarko Petroleum Corp, (APC) Suncor Energy Inc (SU) and Chesapeake Energy Corp. (CHK)
Quicksilver Resources Inc
Specializing in the exploration, production and sale of natural gas and oil in the United States and Canada, Texas-based Quicksilver Resources Inc. has nearly 25 years of experience in the energy sector. The company has a market cap of $938.16 million, and is currently trading near the bottom of its 52-week range of $5.48 to $15.98. Now around $5.50, the company is expecting a share price increase this year, with its one-year target of $8.75 representing an increase of nearly 60%.
Although some indicators (such as its levered free cash flow of -441.01 million) point to Quicksilver as a questionable investment, a number of analysts are starting to see the potential of this small-cap. With several new properties to develop, interest in KWK is rising, with trade volume increasing by 10% over the past 10 days. The Quicksilver share price has pushed below its Price/Book valuation and is trading well below its moving averages, leading many to believe it is getting ready to climb.
Southwestern Energy Co
Southwestern Energy is another company that looks prepared for a breakout. This $10.31 billion Texas company specializes on oil and natural gas reserves in the United States. At $29.68, the company is trading near the bottom of its $28.72 to $49.25 range, although it is aiming at a one-year estimate target of $41.54. Like Quicksilver, SWN is trading below both its 50-day ($33.81) and its 200-day ($38.27) moving averages.
At -532.31 million in levered free cash flow, the company is stretched thin, but back itself up with a return on assets of 10.10% and a return on equity of 19.38%. The company's trailing P/E of 16.49 and its forward P/E of 16.13 are virtually identical, suggesting stability going forward. In spite of the projections, it is difficult to get behind a cash-tight oil & gas when there is an overabundance of natural gas reserves. Holding on any existing positions is probably best at the moment, as investors wait to see if the share price can resume itself and start climbing again.
Anadarko Petroleum Corp
Anadarko Petroleum is another oil & gas company that has been on a wild ride. Trading within a huge 52-week range, ($57.11 to $85.50) this $39.96 billion market cap company from The Woodlands, TX appears poised to take another big leap this year and blow past its $85.50 high. Possessing very solid numbers, this appears to be an excellent time to consider taking a position in APC.
Anadarko stock surged past both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, making a share price increase from its current $80 range toward its one-year target of $100.15 seem believable. With market stability in the Middle East a concern due to the nuclear conflict with Iran, reports of oil abundance in the United States could help increase demand for domestic crude. With a hefty forward P/E of 23.67, picking up some shares of APC at its current range would likely be a very smart move.
Suncor Energy Inc
Canadian oil& gas company Suncor is another must-own energy stock for 2012. The company is not only a producer, but it also has refinery operations throughout the country. With a market cap of $52.78 billion and a 52-week price range of $22.55 to $48.53, a dividend of $0.43 and a yield of 1.40%, the company looks prepared to offer more returns to investors this year.
Trading between its 200-day and 50-day averages, SU is looking at a forward P/E of 10.10. The company has a five-year growth estimate of 13.40%, which nearly mirrors its 13.80% trailing numbers. Analysts largely agree that SU is a buy, an opinion enforced by the fact that some believe Suncor Energy is undervalued by 46% or more. This potential for growth should have investors who want to add an energy stock ready to take a serious look at buying SU.
Chesapeake Energy Corp
Oklahoma-based Chesapeake Energy, a Pickens stock pick, is another company that investors should consider adding to their portfolios. With US properties in the South and West, the $13.72 billion company has the size and holdings to make it very attractive to many people. Although low prices for natural gas have affected the company's share price and cash flow, (trading near its 52-week low and leaving -9.83 billion in levered free cash flow) many are expecting great things for this company.
After setting a new 52-week low of $20.80 in mid-January, (CHK's range is $20.80 to $35.95) its $34.05 one-year target estimate has it challenging the top end before the end of the year. A number of investors have also noticed; speculators have placed a large number of $35/$45 strike calls for January 2013. This increased interest, coupled with its year-to-year quarterly revenue growth of 54.10, makes purchasing CHK at this time appear to be a solid move.
Picking up Must-own Energy Stocks
Although it has not been easy for many energy companies, now is a great time to consider positions in a number of companies. With impressive potential gains and solid statistics, Quicksilver Resources Inc, Southwestern Energy Co, Anadarko Petroleum Corp, Suncor Energy Inc and Chesapeake Energy Corp all look like companies that investors should consider adding to their portfolios.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Friday, January 20, 2012

Can Dem's Survive (Radical Progressiveness)

Can Real Liberalism and the Democratic Party Be Saved from the Radical Takeover?
Posted By Barry Rubin On January 15, 2012 @ 2:43 pm In Uncategorized | 89 Comments

I want the people to know that they still have 2 out of 3 branches of the government working for them, and that ain’t bad.”
 – Jack Nicholson as “President Dale” in Mars Attacks.


The far left has at least temporarily won the battle of ideas in the United States and taken over institutions by pretending to be “liberal.” Meanwhile, actual traditional liberalism, which ruled those institutions for many decades, has vanished. Suddenly, we are supposed to believe that “class warfare,” anti-capitalism, hatred of America, Stalinist-style treatment of opponents, the glorification of the extremist Occupy movement,  a mass media all too devoted to propaganda, and a betrayal of Enlightenment values are normative liberal ideas!
During the 1930s, the Communist Party tried to take over liberalism but failed miserably. Today, however, the post-Communist left has succeeded in that effort to a remarkable extent, effectively wiping out the memory of what liberalism was actually like.  For their part, many conservatives are quite willing to reinforce the left’s rewriting of history, suggesting that Barack Obama and the destruction of once-great institutions is a natural and inevitable outgrowth of people like Franklin Roosevelt, Harry Truman, John F. Kennedy, and Lyndon Johnson.

Yet there is a sizable bloc of traditional liberals who have been repelled by the radical takeovers of institutions and the destruction of their own ideas. They have not yet found a voice but, if given proper treatment and leadership, they are about to far exceed the “Reagan Democrat” phenomenon.

According to a recent Gallup poll, 21 percent of those who considered themselves Democrats when Obama became president no longer do so. And if you add in those still calling themselves Democrats and who will vote loyally while being very disturbed with what’s happening, that number might total about half. These are people who never felt comfortable with the new radicalism, who have woken up in the last three years, or will do so very soon. That’s the constituency I want to speak to.  And briefly here’s the message:

The Obama administration is a radical, not liberal, government. Its domestic policies will never get the country out of the current depression. Its foreign policy is a disaster. It is no longer 1911 or 1932 or 1945 or even 1961. The United States has dealt with the old bigotries to a remarkable extent. Environmental pollution has come under control. Conservatives have accepted these changes. Giant corporations are not controlling everything.

America doesn’t have seemingly unlimited funds to devote to achieving perfection and solving every social or environmental problem.  The government may have been too small 80 years ago but now it is too big. Spending is too high and debt threatens the country’s future. Regulation is strangling business and impinging on personal liberty to a ridiculous extent. Stop demonizing conservatives. They are not a reincarnation of the Klu Klux Klan or mindless idiots.
Vote Obama and the leftists in Congress out of office. If the Democrats don’t provide you with good alternatives then vote Republican, if only to teach them a lesson and force the party back toward the center. Conservatives are far preferable to radical leftists, just as that was so during the Cold War. If a post-Obama Democratic Party moves back toward the center then you can return to it — and if not, then give up on it.  

You shouldn’t have to be a conservative to be horrified by the contemporary situation. But while conservatives and Republican are going to lead the opposition to the status quo, they should seek to build a broad front rather than wage a campaign against historical liberals.

 This doesn’t mean they have to water down their program, but it should be presented in a way designed to broaden its appeal. The target should be the far left, and its camouflage as merely “liberal” should be exposed.

And if there is not going to be a bipartisan basis for cutting the size of government, reducing spending, rejecting the nanny state, undoing strangling regulation, and undertaking other such needed structural reforms, how will there ever be a working majority to get these things done?

A starting point is to remember what really happened in the course of U.S. history. Since the United States became urbanized and industrialized, there have been three broad positions in American politics: the left, liberalism, and conservatism.

Forget about making Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, and Franklin Roosevelt your villains. It’s historically untrue and plays perfectly into the left’s hands. It is more than happy to pretend to be the natural successors of such people, all the better to dupe the large part of its constituency that reveres those presidents but would be horrified to understand that it is really being fooled into following the successors of the Communists and New Left.

Consider, for example, the history of the word “progressive.” Originally, the nineteenth-century progressives were people who saw America falling under the sway of corrupt big-city political machines and massive corporations, institutions that had never existed before and against which no effective safeguards existed.  Agrarian America had become industrial America.

They understood that only a stronger government and such institutions as trade unions could balance the power of the monopolies. Those progressives also understood that if they failed to rein in what was then an uncontrolled capitalism, there was a real chance of leftist revolution. A great deal was achieved and the tide of radicalism and laissez-faire capitalist domination was avoided. By the end of World War One, the movement ended because it had achieved so many of its goals.

By the 1920s, the word “progressive” was no longer used by liberal reformers and instead was taken over by the left, seeking to cloak itself in an attractive mantle and make itself seem more moderate. In  1924, two Progressive parties were organized: one Communist, the other Socialist and trade union-led. Both quickly collapsed though not before the latter received 17 percent of the vote in the election.
During the 1930s, Earl Browder and other Communist Party leaders used the word “progressive” as a cover.  In 1948, it was the name chosen by the Communist Party for its “moderate” front party.
Consider how the Communist Party approached the New Deal. Here’s that party’s leader, Earl Browder, being interviewed in 1936:
“There isn’t an ounce of socialism in the Roosevelt administration. [President Franklin] Roosevelt stands for capitalism but he tries to remedy this capitalism of some of its worst abuses, hoping thereby to give it longer life.”
Roosevelt, Browder continued, was being pulled by some to the left and by others to the right. Consequently, it would be wrong for “all progressives to unite around Roosevelt as the sole means to defeat reaction.” The “progressive side” must be tough and independent to push for the policies it wants.

The reporter conducting the interview concluded, “It seems that personally Roosevelt and [Republican leader Alf] Landon look pretty
much alike to Browder…but as a Communist leader he prefers Roosevelt to Landon’s supporters.”

Yes, that was the historic situation. The radical left — those who wanted to “fundamentally transform America,” in Obama’s words, and not to remedy its “worst abuses,” as Browder saw Roosevelt — hated real liberals. It merely wanted to fool them, win them over, or destroy them.

Real liberals understood this very well and derided the dupes as “fellow travelers.” During the 1940s and 1950s liberal groups were energetically anti-Communist, suspicious of an excessively big government, believed in American greatness, and supported a U.S. international role as a great power.

Remember that it was Truman who led America to recognize and fight the Soviet threat and it was his administration that successfully purged Communists from the U.S. government. And the labor unions threw out the Communists, too.

One of the main groups formed by liberals, in 1947, was the Americans for Democratic Action, an anti-Communist and anti-“Progressive” organization. The ADA’s founding document clearly struck a balance: “The interests of the U.S. are the interests of free men everywhere.” In terms of domestic policies, the ADA wanted to continue the New Deal but warned, “Civil liberties must be protected from concentrated wealth and [an] overcentralized government.”

Within two years, the left was soundly defeated. In the face of the Cold War challenge, liberals worked with the mainstream — that is, non-isolationist — conservatives in forging a bipartisan foreign policy. Meanwhile, the conservatives accepted many of the liberal domestic changes, including the New Deal’s creation of a social safety net and civil rights. The two groups, despite their disagreements, worked together effectively against those who wanted to overthrow the American system  The United States prospered at home and abroad.

And if you want to know how totally the left has triumphed today, look at the Wikipedia entry for the Americans for Democratic Action:
“Americans for Democratic Action (ADA) is an America political organization advocating progressive policies. ADA works for social and economic justice through lobbying, grassroots organizing, research and supporting progressive candidates.”

This is a 180 degree shift from its original purpose. The transformation of institutions into what the Communists called “front groups” and “transmission belts” has been stupendous. While ADA is no longer significant, the positions it holds today sound like Occupy Wall Street.
The situation today is not the descendant of normative liberalism but rather of the New Left. After its miserable failure in the 1960s (a period peaking from around 1967 to 1973), those who still believe in its dogmas “worked within the system” and ultimately utterly transformed it.

In the late 1960s, for example, former SDS President Carl Davidson came up with “new working class” theory.  The cultural-psychological dissatisfactions of the professionals, not the economic grievances of the proletariat, would be the motive force for change. Over time, things like educational indoctrination, the manipulation of public debate, the staffing of the media with people of certain beliefs, and such methods would play a key role in seizing power in the commanding heights of cultural-intellectual production.

In 2008, Carl Davidson headed Progressives for Obama, the explicitly radical component in supporting Obama’s campaign. At that time, nobody else was using the word “progressive.” Now, everyone in that camp uses that label. What better symbol of the far left’s triumph?
The left may lose to conservatism at the ballot box. But its hegemony over universities, publishing, entertainment, culture, and the mass media can only be defeated by an ideological revival of moderate liberalism. Like it or not, those controlling these institutions have been too inoculated with the  demonization of conservatives to be challenged by them. As in the Cold War with Communism, what’s needed is an anti-leftist liberalism that can show where the left has lied and deceived.

Today, though, I’m not aware of a single group that has risen to defend a real liberal alternative to the Obama vision or to denounce the far left worldviews and policies so damaging not only to America itself but also to academia and the media.


The key question is this:

If Obama is defeated in November 2012 and the Republicans take Congress in a landslide, would that be enough to shatter the far left’s cultural-educational hegemony and liberate the Democratic Party from its grip? Can a real opposition movement arise?

Or would the left be able to hold on, using hatred and demonization to maintain control?

And no matter what happens politically, can an anti-leftist liberal movement arise to try to take back the media, universities, and other institutions to play their proper role as open and balanced rather than serving as organs of indoctrination?

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Pethokoukis - Euro a Dagger in O's Future

By James Pethokoukis
November 16, 2011, 11:05 am

Even if nothing else goes wrong, President Obama will almost surely face the most challenging reelection environment for any American president since the Great Depression. Here’s Douglas Elmendorf, director of the Congressional Budget Office, yesterday to Congress: “CBO expects real GDP to grow in the vicinity of 1½ percent this calendar year … and around 2½ percent next year. With modest growth in output, CBO expects employment to expand very slowly during the rest of this year and next year, leaving the unemployment rate close to 9 percent through the end of 2012.”

Elmendorf’s “This is as good as it gets” baseline forecast used to be Team Obama’s DEFCON 1 scenario. Even worse, it assumes nothing else goes particularly wrong (or right). Not that CBO doesn’t acknowledge some downside risk. Among “uncertainties” Elmendorf highlighted was “resolution of concerns that some European governments may default on their debts.”

But how uncertain really? The eurozone is falling into recession, with the region’s economy probably shrinking both this quarter and next. IHS Global Insight sees no growth at all for 2012 as a whole. This stagnation dramatically raises the odds of a messy default by Greece with financial contagion spreading to the rest of the eurozone and then America. The San Francisco Fed puts the odds of a U.S. recession at more likely than not, concluding “the fragile state of the U.S. economy would not easily withstand turbulence coming across the Atlantic. A European sovereign debt default may well sink the United States back into recession. … The odds are greater than 50 percent that we will experience a recession sometime early in 2012.”

How bad a recession? Bad enough that Barclays Capital thinks unemployment could hit 12 percent and home prices could fall another 7 percent. But whatever the impact of recession on jobs and housing, the reality that the economy would again be “back in the ditch” might be enough to guarantee Obama’s first term would be his last. While Europe’s problems aren’t Obama’s fault, voters would hold him accountable for an economy too weak to withstand overseas shocks. Perhaps, they might justifiably reason, the president should have been focusing on economic growth rather than healthcare reform in 2010, especially if the Supreme Court rules against ObamaCare smack in the middle of a new contraction.

Recall how an election-year recession affected Jimmy Carter in 1980. Forecasting models suggest Obama might not do much better than Carter if a downturn occurs in 2012. The Obama political team surely has thought about this and must shudder at the possibility.

Dem's at Odds with Founders - WSJ 01-19-2012

Democrats At War With America's Founding Principle


By KERRY JACKSON
Posted 01/17/2012 07:10 PM ET


The president says Republicans are a threat to the "very core of what this country stands for." Obviously, the man who promised to fundamentally transform America has his parties mixed up.

There's no straight line running from the architects of our republic to the modern-day Republican Party. The GOP is not perfectly representative of what this country is all about. But it is closer than the Democratic Party.

Central to today's Democratic manifesto are policies that would gall our founders, men who wanted to be free of tyranny, to be liberated from a government that interfered with their God-given right to pursue their own lives.

Democrats of the last half century have taken the opposite path. They want to order people's lives; to supervise, monitor and regulate; to rule rather than represent. Sending swarms of officers to harass the people, and to eat out their substance is their idea of good governance.
Democrats are the grand promoters of the welfare state, a wider and deeper dependence on government and a bitterness toward those who have more. Is that what the framers were thinking about when, at their peril, they drafted and signed the Declaration of Independence?
Is creating conditions in which the productive half of the population supports the other half a core value of our country? Is giving away other people's money a traditional virtue cherished by the American people?

Too many Democrats relish punishing success and rewarding failure, sloth and poor choices. Those are core values of their party, but not of the republicans — lower-case "r" — who built our form of government.

Like his European counterpart, the American Democrat condemns wealth creation and obsesses on economic equality and economic security. He does this even if inequalities and economic insecurity occur naturally in a system in which each person is free to decide for himself if he will work to succeed, where men are able to trade among themselves without government intrusion.
To pay for economic security and to iron out the wealth and income inequalities, the Democrats have pushed the federal debt to new heights. What did the founders say about this?

Thomas Jefferson believed that "we shall all consider ourselves unauthorized to saddle posterity with our debts, and morally bound to pay them ourselves." He also warned that "to preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt."

These are words no contemporary Democrat would ever speak.

At the top of the Democratic Party is a man who was sold to voters as a brilliant scholar of a document that lays out what America stands for. But scholarship of this sort is useless to Democrats, because in their minds the Constitution doesn't mean what it says — it means what they want it to mean. It's a "living document," they claim, that has no absolutes and can change with the times. Which means that it means nothing at all.

This, of course, is the same Constitution that Obama swore to "preserve, protect and defend," and the same one, presumably, that he said "reflected the fundamental flaw of this country that continues to this day."
In the final analysis, it's fair to ask if Democrats believe in liberty at all. At one time, they could be counted on to at least defend 1st Amendment freedoms. No more. The Democrats have successfully forced speech codes and political correctness on much of our language.

While the founders were not a monolithic group — there were disagreements, some of them sharp — they were consistent in their defense of liberty. The core of what this country stands for isn't rooted in welfare statism, envy, bitterness, fear-mongering, wealth redistribution, dependence, central planning and soft tyranny.

Ours is a nation founded on freedom, and that is still our core value no matter how much the fact has been denied, obscured and watered down.
• Jackson is an IBD editorial writer.

Why are Obama Critics So Dumb - Newsweek

Why Are President Obama's Defenders So Dumb?


Posted 01/17/2012 07:10 PM ET
A new low for Newsweek. none
A new low for Newsweek. none View Enlarged Image
Media Bias: A presidential infomercial posing as a news magazine distorts the record to shamelessly shill for a failed administration. Why do we criticize the man who made the high-speed trains run on time?

Political campaigns call it free media: when candidates can make their case and communicate their message through interviews and outlets that don't cost a dime.

It helps when a mainstream media sycophant like Andrew Sullivan gets to write a puff piece in Newsweek with the subtle title of "Why Are The President's Critics So Dumb?" The Democratic National Committee couldn't have said it better.

Calling the president's critics dumb is not novel, and it's something President Obama and wife Michelle have done often. When ObamaCare was being shoved down our throats behind closed doors, the president said he had simply not made the case clearly enough so that opponents in flyover country, those bitter townsfolk clinging to their Bibles and guns, could get it.

Sullivan says it's "not true" Obama "has raised taxes" and that ObamaCare "is much more moderate" than its critics claim. Well, let's start with Obama's raising the federal tax nearly 62 cents on a pack of cigarettes to $1.01, which hits Occupy Wall Street's 99% hard and makes a mockery of the pledge not to raise taxes on those making less than $250,000.

Then there are the ObamaCare taxes that took effect right after it was passed though the "benefits" won't appear until 2014. For starters, there's a 0.9% Medicare surtax on wages more than $200,000 for individuals and $250,000 for married couples, along with a 3.8% Medicare tax on investment income.

There's the "Cadillac tax" on high-value health plans from which unions sought exemption. There are the individual and employer mandates that require employers to provide or individuals to buy health insurance.

So egregious are these added taxes and costs the Obama administration has had to issue 1,200 waivers to favored companies and labor unions supporting the president's re-election.


Meanwhile, insurance costs have risen, not fallen, and the promise of health care rationing and doctor shortage
Sullivan repeats administration talking points on nonexistent employment growth. But as we've pointed out, unemployment remains at an unacceptably high 8.5% and the figure is that low only because we don't count those who have dropped out of the work force or limp along with part-time jobs. With the failed stimulus, Obama promised unemployment wouldn't exceed 8%.

The president has also piled on more debt in three years than President Bush did in eight — the most rapid increase in the debt under any U.S. president. Are you better off than you were $5 trillion ago?

Sullivan repeats the canard about Obama inheriting a bad economy, claiming "economies take time to shift course." Yet Obama said at the start he would be a one-term president if he didn't turn things around in three years. All he has done is run the economy aground.
President Reagan inherited a bad economy. But instead of nationalizing everything in sight, he cut taxes and let the entrepreneurs loose. Real GDP today is a mere 0.04% above its pre-recession peak. At the comparable point in the Reagan recovery, unemployment had plunged to 7.3%, while the economy had grown 12% above its pre-recession peak and was still climbing fast.

On foreign policy, Sullivan says Obama "reversed Bush's policy of ignoring Osama bin Laden, immediately setting a course that eventually led to his ... death." But that course was plotted and locked in long before Obama took over, fueled by information gleaned using "enhanced interrogation techniques" that Obama rejected in favor of civilian trials for the likes of Khalid Sheik Mohammed.

Americans see a president who squanders resources on high-speed rail, politically connected solar panel makers and other green enterprises that go bankrupt, and electric cars that catch fire while he dithers like Hamlet over a pipeline from Canada that could cut energy costs and bring up to 250,000 jobs over its lifetime.

They see a president who has kept one of his promises — to make energy prices "necessarily skyrocket" as his EPA declares war on fossil fuels and domestic energy while mandating that through the use of bio-fuels we put food in our gas tanks as food prices also skyrocket.

They see a military gutted by budget cuts to make up for bloated and runaway domestic spending.

They see allies like Britain and Israel abandoned while a mortal enemy, Iran, is ignored as it proceeds virtually unimpeded to a nuclear weapon. The Russian "reset" button has resulted only in the betrayal of allies such as Poland and Czechoslovakia on missile defense.
The president touts an "Arab Spring" while Shariah law takes hold in Libya and Islamists take over in Egypt. Iran salivates as our withdrawal leaves a vacuum Tehran is all too willing to fill. We're now willing to negotiate with a Taliban we once condemned as terrorists.

All in all, it's an abysmal record of domestic and foreign failure, of an oppressive government that spawned the Tea Party movement and left most Americans fearful the country their children will inherit will be one of debt and despair in an increasingly dangerous world.
No surprise, then, that the latest Real Clear Politics average shows roughly two-thirds of Americans (65.3%) believing the country is on the "wrong track," vs. 28.3% who think things are fine. Or that a recent Gallup poll shows nearly two-thirds see a big yet ineffective government as "the biggest threat" to the country.

In other words, Mr. Sullivan, they get it — even if you and the president's other defenders are too dumb to.

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

TS - An Ignored Disparity BMB-YAB

With all the talk about "disparities" in innumerable contexts, there is one very important disparity that gets remarkably little attention -- disparities in the ability to create wealth. People who are preoccupied, or even obsessed, with disparities in income are seldom interested much, or at all, in the disparities in the ability to create wealth, which are often the reasons for the disparities in income.
In a market economy, people pay us for benefiting them in some way -- whether we are sweeping their floors, selling them diamonds or anything in between. Disparities in our ability to create benefits for which others will pay us are huge, and the skills required can develop early -- or sometimes not at all.

A recent national competition among high school students who create their own technological advances turned up an especially high share of such students winning recognition in the San Francisco Bay Area. A closer look showed that the great majority of these Bay Area students had Asian names.

Asian Americans are a substantial presence in this region but they are by no means a majority, much less such an overwhelming majority as they are among those winning high tech awards.

This pattern of disproportionate representation of particular groups among those with special skills and achievements is not confined to Asian Americans or even to the United States.

It is a phenomenon among particular racial, ethnic or other groups in countries around the world -- the Ibos in Nigeria, the Parsees in India, the Armenians in the Ottoman Empire, Germans in Brazil, Chinese in Malaysia, Lebanese in West Africa, Tamils in Sri Lanka. The list goes on and on.

Gross inequalities in skills and achievements have been the rule, not the exception, on every inhabited continent and for centuries on end.

Yet our laws and government policies act as if any significant statistical difference between racial or ethnic groups in employment or income can only be a result of their being treated differently by others.

Nor is this simply an opinion. Businesses have been sued by the government when the representation of different groups among their employees differs substantially from their proportions in the population at large. But, no matter how the human race is broken down into its components -- whether by race, sex, geographic region or whatever -- glaring disparities in achievements have been the rule, not the exception.

Anyone who watches professional basketball games knows that the star players are by no means a representative sample of the population at large. The book "Human Accomplishment" by Charles Murray is a huge compendium of the top achievements around the world in the arts and sciences, as well as in sports and other fields.

Nowhere have these achievements been random or representative of the demographic proportions of the population of a country or of the world. Nor have they been the same from one century to the next. China was once far more advanced technologically than any country in Europe, but then it fell behind and more recently is gaining ground.

Most professional golfers who participate in PGA tournaments have never won a single tournament, but Arnold Palmer, Jack Nicklaus and Tiger Woods have each won dozens of tournaments.

Yet these and numerous other disparities in achievement are resolutely ignored by those whose shrill voices denounce disparities in rewards, as if these disparities are somehow suspicious at best and sinister at worst.

Higher achieving groups -- whether classes, races or whatever -- are often blamed for the failure of other groups to achieve. Politicians and intellectuals, especially, tend to conceive of social questions in terms that allow them to take on the role of being on the side of the angels against the forces of evil.

This can be a huge disservice to those individuals and groups who are lagging behind, for it leads them to focus on a sense of grievance and victimhood, rather than on how they can lift themselves up instead of trying to pull other people down.

Again, this is a worldwide phenomenon -- a sad commentary on the down side of the brotherhood of man.

Monday, January 16, 2012

TS - Random Thoughts 01-16

Random thoughts on the passing scene:

Talk show host Dennis Miller said, "I don't dig polo. It's like miniature golf meets the Kentucky Derby."

Nothing illustrates the superficiality of our times better than the enthusiasm for electric cars, because they are supposed to greatly reduce air pollution. But the electricity that ultimately powers these cars has to be generated somewhere -- and nearly half the electricity generated in this country is generated by burning coal.

The 2012 Republican primaries may be a rerun of the 2008 primaries, where the various conservative candidates split the conservative vote so many ways that the candidate of the mushy middle got the nomination -- and then lost the election.

Because morality does not always prevail, by any means, too many of the intelligentsia act as if it has no effect. But, even in Nazi Germany, thousands of Germans hid Jews during the war, at the risk of their own lives, because it was the right thing to do.

In recent times, Christmas has brought not only holiday cheer but also attacks on the very word "Christmas," chasing it from the vocabulary of institutions and even from most "holiday cards." Like many other social crusades, this one is based on a lie -- namely that the Constitution puts a wall of separation between church and state. It also shows how easily intimidated we are by strident zealots.

If you don't like growing older, don't worry about it. You may not be growing older much longer.

What do you call it when someone steals someone else's money secretly? Theft. What do you call it when someone takes someone else's money openly by force? Robbery. What do you call it when a politician takes someone else's money in taxes and gives it to someone who is more likely to vote for him? Social Justice.

When an organization has more of its decisions made by committees, that gives more influence to those who have more time available to attend committee meetings and to drag out each meeting longer. In other words, it reduces the influence of those who have work to do, and are doing it, while making those who are less productive more influential.

Anyone who studies the history of ideas should notice how much more often people on the political left, more so than others, denigrate and demonize those who disagree with them -- instead of answering their arguments.

The wisest and most knowledgeable human being on the planet is utterly incompetent to make even 10 percent of the consequential decisions that have to be made in a modern nation. Yet all sorts of people want to decide how much money other people can make or keep, and to micro-manage how other people live their lives.

The real egalitarians are not the people who want to redistribute wealth to the poor, but those who want to extend to the poor the ability to create their own wealth, to lift themselves up, instead of trying to tear others down. Earning respect, including self-respect, is better than being a parasite.

Of all the arguments for giving amnesty to illegal immigrants, the most foolish is the argument that we can't find and expel all of them. There is not a law on the books that someone has not violated, including laws against murder, and we certainly have not found and prosecuted all the violators -- whether murderers or traffic law violators. But do we then legalize all the illegalities we haven't been able to detect and prosecute?

In the 1920s, Congressman Thomas S. Adams referred to "the ease with which the income tax may be legally avoided" but also said some Congressmen "so fervently believe that the rich ought to pay 40 or 50 per cent of their incomes" in taxes that they would rather make this a law, even if the government would get more revenue from a lower tax rate that people actually pay. Some also prefer class warfare politics that brings in votes, if not revenue.

Can you imagine a man who had never run any kind of organization, large or small, taking it upon himself to fundamentally change all kinds of organizations in a huge and complex economy? Yet that is what Barack Obama did when he said, "We are going to change the United States of America!" This was not "The Audacity of Hope." It was the audacity of hype.
Thomas Sowell is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305. His website is www.tsowell.com. To find out more about Thomas Sowell and read features by other Creators Syndicate columnists and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate Web page at www.creators.com.
COPYRIGHT 2011 CREATORS.COM

Saturday, January 14, 2012

SL 01-13-2012

Time to Wake Up

January 13, 2012

As Broadcast on Bill Bennett’s Morning in America

By Seth Leibsohn



Given the news of the last few weeks, I have to confess for the first time in a long time I’m scratching my head.  This was supposed to be our year.  Everything we have done since President Obama’s inauguration was to culminate in 2012, to ensure he would be the last lesson of a failed experiment in left wing governance.



I have long-maintained that people had forgotten what a left-wing President was, they had forgotten the Jimmy Carter years and that if anything good would have come out of the Obama presidency, the one-term Obama presidency, it would have been a reminder to us of  seven words: We Never Need To Do This Again.  And yet here we are, after the takeback of the House in 2010, after electing Republican governors in Virginia and New Jersey and a Republican to fill Ted Kennedy’s seat, after all the organizing and import of the Tea Parties, here we are with most of the major Republican nominees tearing themselves up and almost all of the national polls showing Obama beating our candidate, whoever he is (with the exception of two distant outliers).



Let us start with the attacks or the challenge to Mitt Romney on Bain Capital.  Of course Bain is fair game.  As has been pointed out, when you make your resume or any specific part of your resume, a campaign point, you fairly open it up to challenge.  And you want that resume vetted before the general election.  That said, three things more need to be stated.  I)  Of course not every business is to be beyond criticism and it is ridiculous to argue that a challenge to how one business or industry conducts its affairs is an attack on capitalism itself.  Do we truly want to say certain companies, legal companies, even lucrative, profit-driven companies are beyond any and every level of criticism and that if they are criticized that is an attack on capitalism?  When some of us challenged Hollywood and the music industry for the filth they were putting out, glamorizing drugs or sex or violence, that we were attacking capitalism?  Of course not.



II)  Having said that, this should mean that there can be a challenge to Mitt Romney’s stewardship of or the work of Bain Capital.  And if it is to be defended, it is up to Mitt Romney who has made it a chief part of his political resume, or business background, to stand up for his work at Bain.  He has yet to convincingly do that.  There is a defense of Bain, I’m sure of it because I’ve heard parts of it…But from others.  It will do no good to have a candidate in the general election or President of the United States who relies on others to defend his positions.  We have had quite enough in previous experience of outsourcing our rhetoric.  So the message there is either Mitt Romney needs to start making a convincing case for his experience now that it has been challenged (and I mean responsible challenges, not Michael Moore-type challenges) or he needs to talk about something else to bolster his credentials.  The truth is, he has said that as a businessman he knows how to create jobs.  Let’s hear more, much more, beyond that talking point—especially now that it has been questioned.



III).  That all said, I have to borrow from Barry Goldwater in saying “Let’s grow up, conservatives.”  We all want someone who can take it to Obama.  And we want to give Independents and Reagan Democrats and those not already planning to vote Republican, because they are self-identified Republicans, a reason to vote for our candidate and against President Obama.  Here, I salute Rick Santorum for not making his case based on Romney and Bain.  And sure, yes, Ron Paul, too:  These are conviction politicians.  You know well where they stand and they have stayed focused on their case for themselves and against Obama.  Paul is beyond the pale on many fronts, however, actually to the left of Obama on many issues from foreign to defense to domestic policy—and this is all I am going to say in praise of him: At least he sticks to his case.



But we now face an election where it is time for the candidates to stand on their own platforms, for their own cases, and show us what they have against Obama.  Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry and Jon Huntsman have done reasonable work for most of their campaigns to do that.  They haven’t in the past few weeks, however.  And so now we are cannibalizing ourselves.  And Mitt Romney has not shown he can defend himself against such a campaign either.  That should all be telling.  Because there is a fourth point and it is this:

Obama needs to go, and our race is not over.  Yes, of course, Romney seems like the front runner, and he seems that way because he is—in every poll, in money, and by almost every other calculation.  But that is not all there is, and he is not all there is.  We don’t coronate—or shouldn’t.  And if you can’t defend your biggest calling card on your curriculum vitae, you have a problem.  Bill Kristol put it best this week, saying this:



[A]fter winning by eight votes in Iowa, getting 40 percent of the vote in his basically, his second home state… this race is not over. It's just not, 25 percent and 40 percent in two states and everyone else is supposed to go, oh, sorry, we have to go home. That is not going to happen….The fact that the delegates are proportionally allocated, most delegates are not Romney delegates. Most delegates in Iowa were not Romney delegates and most the delegates in New Hampshire where he got 40 will end up not being Romney delegates….The media here is desperate to end this thing. Two states voted. There are 48 left. Let's end it. Let's call the football season off after the first two games.





So it’s not over yet.  This puts an extra-heavy civilizational, democratic, and election burden on the voters of South Carolina and Florida now.  I hope they do their due diligence and think long and hard about who the best candidate will be to attract other voters and beat Barack Obama in a general election.  My own thoughts are that I think the party, just now, deserves a Romney – Santorum race. That is how we typically do it: an establishment figure versus a different kind of Republican.  Sometimes it goes to the establishment figure and sometimes not.



But the point now is this:  We have the worst foreign and defense and domestic policy president in recent memory, perhaps in my lifetime, and we are not on track to beat him right now—even after all our post-2009 efforts.



Here is the case, or at least a case:  When President Obama was inaugurated, the average price of a gallon of gas was $1.85.  Today it is well over three dollars.  Is that an accident?  You tell me.  In September of 2008, Steven Chu said “Somehow we have to figure out how to boost the price of gasoline to the levels in Europe.”  Three months later he was made our Secretary of Energy.  In his second month in office, President Obama’s Interior Secretary cancelled 77 domestic oil and gas leases.  Knowing of our domestic energy reserves that could take us off foreign oil and put us on a path to energy independence and increase employment all at once, did this President facilitate that? No.  He gave us yet more moratoria.  And just two months ago, President Obama turned his back on a job-packed Canadian deal to bring more oil to the United States from Canada.  Result: no 20,000 jobs for the XL Oil pipeline, less oil from an ally, and the upsetting of our Canadian allies.


When President Obama was inaugurated, the Misery Index (inflation plus unemployment) stood at 7.8.  The lower it is, the better.  It went well over 12 points last year and sits at 12 points right now.  It hit a 28 point high under President Obama.  When President Obama was inaugurated, unemployment was 7.8.  His policies, his advisors told us, would keep unemployment from reaching beyond 8 percent.  We got Obama’s policies and unemployment went to over 10 percent and it is well over 8 percent now—and the only reason it is not higher is because so many have simply taken themselves out of the calculation, having given up looking for full time employment.



When President Obama was inaugurated, our national debt was 10.6 trillion dollars.  Today it is over 15 trillion dollars.  There is much more to say here, from attacking the State of Arizona for trying to stop illegal immigration rather than trying to stop illegal immigration to mandating that each and every American purchase something each and every American may not want to purchase.  And setting a very dangerous precedent with such a law.



Going to war but avoiding going to Congress; voiding law passed by Congress and previous presidents.  All kinds of constitutional violations.



And on the foreign and defense policy fronts, so much to say there too:  From cutting our defense budget as he makes the needs for our defense so much the greater.  From helping turn Egypt from an ally to an enemy and bolstering the Muslim Brotherhood to siding with Iran’s mullacracy when the people on the street in Iran had a brief, shining moment to change their government toward the better.  From canceling our missile defense systems in Europe and upsetting our Czech and Polish allies while disarming ourselves in our arsenal against Russia.  From blaming Israel for its quest to defend itself and dictating to it her borders and comparing its policies to apartheid while its enemies (and ours) continued to launch attacks against her.  From snubbing the Dalai Lama to snubbing the British Prime Minister.  And then there is Iraq and Afghanistan.



Starting next week, I am going to be tolling the human cost of our precipitous withdrawal from Iraq.  For now, just recall this in Afghanistan: We are now negotiating with the Taliban, the very organization that gave safe haven to al-Qaeda, worked cheek to jowl with them, and brought us 9/11.



I will conclude with the under-reported story out of Iran this week.  Fact: An Iranian nuclear engineer responsible for helping build an Iranian nuclear bomb was killed there this week.  Fact: Iran wants to wipe Israel and the United States off the face of the earth. Fact:  Iran is an enemy of ours that has killed countless Americans and supported terrorism that has killed countless more.  Fact: There is an American hostage in Iran right now who has been sentenced to death.  Fact: We don’t know who killed the engineer. Fact:  Israel is an ally of ours and is the first target of Iran with the United States being the second.  Fact: Iran blamed Israel and the United States for the killing.  And Fact:  The State Department condemned the killing, and left Israel out to dry while telling Iran—yet again—we are not serious about what they are doing.



Let me give you the quotes:

Hillary Clinton:  "I want to categorically deny any United States involvement in any kind of act of violence inside Iran."  Tommy Vietor, a National Security Council spokesman, added: "The United States had absolutely nothing to do with this. We strongly condemn all acts of violence, including acts of violence like this." Victoria Nuland, Clinton's spokeswoman, said the state department condemned "any assassination or attack on an innocent person and we express our sympathies to the family.”


We can engage in drone attacks and targeted killings, even in countries not at war with us, even against American enemies of the state; but against Iran we take Iran’s side and in the process put Israel in greater danger by siding against her and with Iran and its complaint.  The dictionary leaves me speechless to describe this kind of thinking.


That is but the very beginning of our case-but nowhere near a comprehensive statement of it.  It is not Bain Capital.  It is not that Rick Santorum lost one race in the worst year for Republicans in recent memory.  It is not Newt Gingrich’s pugnacity. It is, instead, the weakening of America.  We cannot afford four more years of even part of the Obama indictment, and yet we are not now on the path to making our case.  Indeed, conservatives, let’s grow up.

Friday, January 13, 2012

VDH - No News Stories of 2011

The No News Stories of 2011
Posted By Victor Davis Hanson On January 1, 2012 @ 10:04 am In Uncategorized | 146 Comments

The German Stereotype

There were lots of stories that left a lot unsaid. The Germany/EU debt imbroglio was one of them. The more Germany’s 80 million people were looked upon to bail out the 120 million of Mediterranean Europe—if not still more in France and Eastern Europe—the more in our politically-correct age we never quite were told how this could be possible.

German Octopuses?

Did Germans not sleep? Did they each have eight arms? Was Germany itself sitting on secret oil reserves? Did it have tons of stolen war gold horded in its vaults (as some Greeks alleged)? Had it harnessed a new type of energy? How strange to be told that Germany was the new heart of Europe but never to be to told how and why?


So how, in fact, did a humiliated Germany of 1919, a Germany after the ashes of 1945, and a Germany stung by a $2 trillion bite in absorbing a ruined East Germany in 1989, find itself—as Margaret Thatcher and Francois Mitterrand once feared in 1989—once more adjudicating the history of Europe [1]? Were we terrified of stereotypes that were cruel to Germany (goose-stepping automatons were back again?) or that were cruel to southern Europeans (the Danes and Dutch were likewise solvent in comparison to the siesta-napping, and perennially shouting sunny Mediterraneans)?

Is there such a thing as national character or habit—both having nothing to do with race—in our postmodern age? In the 21st century, can we still say that Germans go to bed when Athenians go to dinner, or that they more likely consider tax cheating theft rather than ingenuity, or that they make things to work well rather than just make things to sell? Is it that when you go into a German bank you are served, and when you go into a Greek counterpart you witness an unending coffee break? Do tiny habits like your bus driver going down the aisle to collect trash versus throwing it out the window add up? When I see two Greek drivers scream and gesticulate at each other in Omonia Square over a tiny fender bender—as four lanes are shut down for their fifteen minutes of machismo — and, in contrast, watch two German drivers on Neuhauser straße in Munich exchange information, shake hands, and help push their dented cars off the road, does all that 1000 times a day also make a difference?

Is there a reason, aside from weather, why one would rather relax for a week in the Aegean than in Berlin, or retire on the Costa del Sol rather than in Bremen? For all the angry op-eds about the unraveling of the EU, no one quite walked us through exactly what Germans do each day that makes them different from other Europeans—although most who have visited Athens and Munich, or walked through Rome and Copenhagen, or sat in a café in Madrid and Frankfurt might be able to offer journalists some help. Of course, throughout 2011, I did read clever essays advising readers about how not to walk into this trap of believing in archaic and stereotyped notions like national character when some esoteric and almost unfathomable “real” cause (Thucydides’s aitia) far better explained the differences.

Iran: If Only …

Iran was another incomplete story this year. As the year ended, the Iranians were once again, in North Korean style, sounding off about their great navy closing the strait of Hormuz, attacking “foreigners” and all the other 1% probability nutcakery that responsible powers must nevertheless prepare for.

Oh, the efforts we go through to explain Iranian hatred of America, as we search endlessly for the “moderates” and remain puzzled over how in the world anyone could not like Barack Obama [2]. Ad nauseam, we hear of 1953, Mossadeq, and the Shah—never that we originally found ourselves involved in Persia not for oil (cf. the British), but in World War II to supply communist Russia against the Germans, and then afterwards to ensure the Russians did not do to Iran what they had done to most of Eastern Europe. From 2007-2009, we heard from Obama about reset and dialogue with Iran, and “face-to-face” negotiations. And we got all that and much more.

Four or five “deadlines” for Iran to cease work on the bomb were ignored. Obama not only was silent when nearly a million protested in the streets of Teheran against the theocracy in spring 2009 (one of the great blunders in American diplomatic history), but he even tried to contextualize his silence with, of course, oblique references to Mossadeq who, like Allende, is forever frozen in leftist amber to be hung as a locket next to the heart. The last three years of reset with Iran had followed thirty years of hostage taking, Hezbollah’s murdering of Americans, subsidization of terrorists to attack Americans in Iraq and Afghanistan, and various efforts worldwide to hamper U.S. interests.

Why do the Iranians do these things, year after year? To paraphrase Dirty Harry, “Because they like it.” And, of course, it pays. Take away the bomb threats, the terrorism, the hatred of the U.S., and Iran would be an oil-rich Turkey or a bigger version of Kuwait, in the way that Costa Rica is not Cuba or Laos is not in the news like North Korea. Influence, attention, the spotlight, fear, honor—these are not inconsiderable stimuli.


That fact does not mean we must be at war with Iran, but that the government in Teheran has similarities with other violently anti-American regimes in North Korea and Cuba that have long bitter histories with America, a deeply entrenched sense of victimization, and a wildly inflated notion of their own importance—and who all find “outreach” and “reset” a sort of weakness to be despised rather than magnanimity to be appreciated. In short, if Iran were to normalize relations and call off its endless religious war against the West, then hundreds of thousands of otherwise incompetent religious hacks, who are now wealthy and powerful at the helm of their police state, would have to go back to ranting and panting at mini-skirts from the mosque as they returned to the dole. Constant near war is what enriches them, and so why would they give that up for an empowered, free populace and a watchdog press?

Miles To Go

We are now into our twenty-third year of our long struggle with Iran—or around 1972 in Cold War chronology with the Soviets. I would imagine that we might well have another fifteen or twenty years to go before that rotten regime finally collapses. In short, the story of 2011 was, again, that the Iranian government hates us and always will until its own incompetence finally destroys even a huge oil exporting economy—about fifty years in normal dictatorship collapse time (e.g., 1979-2029).

Ah—Those Damn Records Again

There were lots of incomplete stories on the domestic front. From time to time, the media caricatured Rick Perry’s Texas A & M’s aggie Cs as proof that he was “dumb.” Recently Chris Matthews (but, of course) derided Mitt Romney’s privilege by comparison to Barack Obama, “who busted hump” to get into prestigious schools and Harvard Law. (“Busted hump” is now to follow “tingle” from out of Matthews’ creepy Freudian recesses?) Remember in 2008 that John McCain’s lackluster US Naval Academy transcript was supposed to offer proof that he was always an unserious and irascible sort. But the media never finish this silly go-all-the-way-back-to-college narrative by producing Obama’s straight As— to remind us how brilliant academic achievement has now continued with inspired White House leadership. Why is this?

First, the minor, peripheral reasons. The media were burned with the George Bush “dunce” stories of cheerleading at Yale—when it was revealed that both his SAT scores and GPA were as good or better than John Kerry’s. The media also believe that the Ivy League is a certifier, not an institution, of higher disinterested learning. The point is to get in somehow and get out any way possible stamped with the brand—not what you did in between (unless you are a nucular Bush). Most accept that if one is not in chemistry, engineering, math, etc., then one can coast in the humanities or social sciences in the Ivy League without a lot of work. Flunking out as a sociology or political science major at Yale or Stanford is a lot harder to do than flunking out with the same major at Ohio State or Cal Poly, San Luis Obispo.

Or is it that Obama was a straight-A student and is holding back on the release of his transcript for the right moment to embarrass critics, in the way he did the sudden “birther” Donald Trump? Are the hidden straight As a complex political IED that will blow up in the face of any who jump upon it? Not likely, but to be fair I had to raise the possibility.

All of which gets us to the real story that was never reported on:

1) Barack Obama simply does not expect to follow normal political customs and traditions because he knows the media do not expect him to: he will not release the transcripts because he does not have to and it is his pleasure not to, in the way he did not worry about explaining [3] his near worship of his racist pastor of twenty years, or being the first to renounce public financing of presidential campaigns in the general election, or the first nominee in recent memory not to have released his medical records, or the first to have raised $1 billion dollars in private cash, or the first to have played 90 rounds of golf in his first three years in office. All of these may or may not be real issues, but they have always been real issues to the press and suddenly are no longer such—and Obama not only knows it, but enjoys knowing how the media exempts rather than audits him [4]. Does a Chris Matthews understand just how much contempt Obama has for someone so sycophantic as himself?

2) The second reason may well be that Barack Obama really did not “bust hump” to get into Occidental, Columbia, or Harvard, but in fact coasted the entire time. In other words, the record does not reflect an A-/B+ student whom affirmative action consideration can boost into the Ivy League, but perhaps a C+/B- (or worse?) student whom even “diversity” usually cannot. That would prove embarrassing in the sense that the myth of Michael Beschloss “smartest president ever” might be endangered (remember, PJ readers, the media, not us, iconize long ago college grades). A lackluster academic record might as well bring up the entire topic of affirmative action in a way not heretofore discussed. Finally, a dismal transcript might offer perspective on the Obama method of rhetoric over achievement.

At some point the Republican nominee will produce his entire medical and college records and matter-of-factly expect Obama at last to do the same. Watch the hysteria that follows [5]—for 24 hours. (Or would it be better for a Romney or Gingrich to say, “Of course, my medical and college records remain off-limits as is now the custom, and by the way, I will not be taking any federal campaign financing funds with all their bothersome attached strings”?)

What We Owe

But the big story of 2011 was debt, as in $16 trillion of it at home, a bankrupt European Union abroad, and a number of blue states—California, Illinois, New York— struggling under burdens of pensions, public employee salaries, entitlements, and the flight of higher income earners. There was a pattern here, right?


No one in the media connected those dots that Plato and Aristotle did long ago from their own observations of radical democracy: the “people” —hoi polloi, the dêmos, the ochlos, whatever—inevitably vote themselves entitlements that they cannot pay for and then in vain damn the shrinking number of those who can pay for them for a while longer—while questioning the entire premise of a system that allows some to have more than others. Under Obama we piled up a new $4 trillion in debt. The media was content to say that it was Bush’s fault, given that the latter did the same thing—but it left out two key “buts” [6]: one, Obama did it in three years, not eight; and, two, Obama added to an $11 trillion existing debt, not a $7 trillion—a consideration in the modern age of interest.

The subtext of the Simpson-Bowles commission was not just that Obama picked a committee and then ignored its findings, but that even the recommendations of this responsible commission were too timid: under their suggestions, most of us would never see a balanced budget in our lifetimes (e.g., over the next twenty years). Dream up the most stringent austerity program that is politically viable, and it is far too little and too late. So we wait, hoping that near zero interest rates will allow us to borrow even more.

In short, every time we promised the Pakistanis more money, each time the president promised more unemployment insurance and food stamps, at every evocation of a new element of the Dream Act, at all the fury over the number of F-22s to be built, no one said, “Hmm, all on borrowed money.” (To be fair, Ron Paul said just that [but unfortunately a lot of other things as well]). The media simply did not tell the public that we have collectively taken out a huge adjustable rate mortgage to pay for our daily consumption, and that each day we are going to have to eliminate more expenditures to service the interest.

Why the silence? Are the numbers simply too staggering to get a handle on? Is the reality too depressing? Or is there a sense that as we reach the unsustainable $20 trillion at last “they” will cough up (gorge the beast to ensure higher taxation?), as deficit spending is not the end, but the means, to ensure full income redistribution? Or perhaps at some point, our technocrats will remind us that “they” who have raised the bar on the rest of us, the 1%, the corporate jet owners, and the millionaires and billionaires, already have money. So are we, the 99%, forced to pay interest to “them” (whether Americans or not) who don’t need it? In the manner of the Chrysler creditors, perhaps we can run through the list of holders of U.S. debt, and decide whom and whom not should be paid back.

The Ministries of Truth

As a general rule, when you watch a story on CBS, listen to NPR, or read the New York Times, assume that the news is prepped in such a way as to suggest the opposite of what really happened. As for German dominance—mercantilism, reactionary financial ideology, and cultural insensitivity over patterns of consumption and lifestyle should not reflect any larger truth other than in the game of capitalism some like a few German bankers put “success” at a higher premium than did others. Who is to say it is better to count money in the bank on a Friday afternoon than to enjoy an outdoor glass of wine and conversation?

Moderates in Iran are still struggling with the legacies of colonialism and U.S. imperialism and so on occasion lash out in ways that sober and judicious Westerners must contextualize as we slowly rebuild trust through dialogue and consultation on shared issues of concern.
Straight-A students do not rub in their genius by releasing their long ago and now irrelevant college transcripts that would only prove what we already know and bring needless humiliation to lesser folk; those who are fit and trim really do not have health “issues” in a way those over sixty-five do, and therefore properly spare us the boredom of learning what we already know. As for those who cling to these birth-certificate-like obsessions, they should confront honestly and openly their own fears and prejudices that prompt such conspiracy mongering about Obama.

As far as debt goes, money, like the speed limit or changing hair styles, is simply a construct, a “keeping track” system that is always fluid and so can be at times modulated and redefined by our custodians to reflect social and cultural justice, whether by debt restructuring, various “hair-cuts,” inflation, quantitative easing [7], or renegotiation. $5, $15, $25 trillion even are just the score-keeping of blinkered, emperors-with-no-clothes card players who pile up their winnings, oblivious that their chips at some point have to be cashed out—and by those who might just see them as little more than red, blue and white plastic.

Article printed from Works and Days: http://pjmedia.com/victordavishanson