The goal of flattening the curve, for the thousandth time, was to avoid swamping the health system. If we're now shifting the argument to "buying time" so we can develop a therapeutic or vaccine, let's say that out loud -- and then let's hear some prospective timelines.
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Because here's the problem: if we're just waiting for a deus ex machina while tens of millions of people lose their jobs, and fall into poverty and despair, and we have no timeline, that's not a plan. That's just hope. And hope isn't a plan.
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Then the question becomes what our goals are. Are we looking to simply "buy time" while re-opening the economy to the best of our ability? Or do we, at some point, aim for herd immunity a la Sweden? Because those are two quite different strategies.
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Those strategies actually look similar for those who have pre-existing conditions or who are 60+: stay home as much as you can until something changes. But the strategies begin to diverge WIDELY with regard to everyone else.
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If we're aiming for "buying time," we should keep schools closed, socially distance and wear masks, work from home. If we're aiming for herd immunity amongst the healthiest populations, we should actually do the opposite: the "controlled avalanche" strategy.
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Partial re-opening doesn't save most of the economy -- a 25% full restaurant is a bankrupt restaurant -- and does come with increased spread. It also comes with no end date, since herd immunity is not even a goal. The deus ex machina remains the unspoken assumption.
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Perhaps that's a justified assumption! But let's hear somebody say it out loud so we can debate it. All we've heard so far is the strategy, not the goal. And that's a problem, and will undermine public confidence in the strategy itself.
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Because we can also make the worst-case-scenario argument: no vaccine, no therapeutic, the risks are what they are. In which case the continued avoidance of a "controlled avalanche" strategy prolongs the virus' spread, magnifies economic loss, and doesn't save lives in the end.
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The vociferous feelings on both sides of this debate are fascinating, because the true argument should be about forecasting the future -- and nobody knows the future.
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But people are, without saying it, overlaying their expectations of the future onto their policy preferences, not shaping policy based on considered expectations.
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And that suggests that the debate is really about political tolerance levels for the size and scope of government intrusion. Which is actually what is happening.
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