Friday, January 13, 2017

JFarrish 01/13



Earnings season kicks off with banks

OUTLOOK: January 13th
It is Friday the 13th and earnings season kicks off today with banks reporting... will it be a Freddie Kruger kind of day or do we move forward with optimism? We will know soon enough as Bank of America, JP Morgan and Wells Fargo report before the opening bell. With interest rates higher, expectations are equally higher. The challenge is the time it takes for the benefit of higher rates to impact the bottom line is greater than most expect. With that in mind, we approach the trading day with caution on the heels of the market shedding some gains on Thursday. There were no structural or figurative changes as a result as investors continue to languish in the current trading range of consolidation and digestion.

Eight of the eleven sectors ended lower on the day with financials (XLF) leading the downside along with telecom (IYZ) and energy (XLE). Blame it on anticipation of earnings or rotation, but the upside was not that impressive or defensive in nature. The upside came from healthcare (XLV), REITs (RWR) and utilities (XLU). The movement on the day was not enough to change anything at this juncture and we will hold to see how today unfolds. Gold (GLD) moved higher again holding the move through resistance at the $111.10 level and attempting to fill the gap left in November. The dollar index (DXY) reacted to higher treasury prices with yields moving lower but managed to recapture most of the losses by the close of trading. The emerging markets (EEM) are positive as well with a solid move above the $35.62 resistance and the December highs at $36.43. The Volatility Index (VIX) to a high of 12.6 intraday before settling at 11.5 as the opening anxiety faded. Worries about the news from Washington could push the index higher eventually, but for now, it was only a brief encounter. Overall patiently watching how this unfolds with the month half over and nothing but news and speculation on the horizon...


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