Is the next move down for broad market?
Plenty of reports lately calling for the broad market indexes to move lower. A look at the S&P 500 index shows the 2085 level as resistance technically. The NASDAQ 100 index is at 4655 resistance and holding. The Dow is hitting 17,765 as resistance. The Russell 2000 index couldn’t clear the 1173 mark today… Theoretically this means nothing, but the psychology of the investor is starting to play havoc as it relates to the data points in the economy, earnings and forecasts. This begs the question of what is the driver for the indexes to climb? Hope and news? The fundamental data isn’t doing it and therein lies the challenge. Short term I would expect more volatility, but as for saying the market is going for move lower flip-a-coin. Nobody knows what tomorrow will hold so why speculate… all you can do is participate based on a define strategy that you act on each day based on what you know.
Technically speaking there were plenty of doji candles left today at the close. That reflects the indecision relative to direction at the current levels. It is not a leading indicator for direction, but it is a good indication of indecision.
Why does it matter… worth watching tomorrow to see if investors can make up their mind to continue the current trend or start a reversal.
There were some continuing story lines on the day as utilities climbed one percent and back to the top of the bottom range that has been in place the last two weeks. Part of the indecision in the sector has to do with interest rates. This is an interest sensitive sector and if rates are rising at the Fed the impact to this sector is in response to yields of the stock dividends needing to rise to meet the expectation of higher yields overall.
Healthcare fell 1.7% after making a move above the $71.80 mark on Wednesday. The reverse head and shoulders pattern remains in place on the move, but it still needs to clear the 200 DMA on the upside. Biotech (XBI) was part of the downside stress for the sector shedding 2%, the healthcare providers (IHF) was the leader on the downside losing 4.2% on the day. The move confirms the downtrend in the sector that started in June. The sector remains under pressure as the margins compress and the continued battle in Washington DC over rising cost are nagging at the stocks and the sector overall.
Financials are holding up as the promise of a rate hike looms on the horizon. The banks stand to benefit from the higher interest rates. This has been talked about and abandoned so many time there is little belief it will transpire near term. Nonetheless banks are in a good positions technically. Fundamentally they will have to validate the belief as we move through the increase and see how earnings respond.
Energy fell 1.3% on the day as the price of crude tested the $39 level and bounced to settle slightly lower on the day. The nerves remain in conjunction with the lower prices. Nothing is for sure, but sector continues to struggle on the supply/demand side and that is keeping the selling pressure in the sector relative to any bounce. Patience is a virtue when it comes to investing in the sector short or long term.
Tomorrow ends the trading week and I am sure the blather will start about the Thanksgiving trading week being a positive historically. Don’t allow the noise to disrupt what you know. Stay focused, stay discipline and manage your risk as this all unfolds.
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