Tuesday, January 2, 2024
NJ Mayor Rejects Migrants
Thursday, April 20, 2023
Where Did All the Immigrants Go??
Where Did All the Biden Illegal Immigrants Go? Hard-Up Sanctuary Cities Like New York Are Only Part of the Answer
In New York City, if the newcomers aren't put up at the luxury cruise terminal that served the QE2, they could get $700-a-night midtown hotel accommodations with iconic Manhattan views. In Chicago, they found themselves whisked to suburban lodgings. In Denver, officials refer to them discreetly as “guests” and you needn’t bother inquiring about their inns or addresses.
The people enjoying these free digs aren’t privacy-conscious jet-setters, but the secrecy surrounding them might be comparable: They’re some of the millions of migrants who have illegally crossed into the U.S. since the Biden administration relaxed most border controls.
No one knows exactly how many people have poured across the southwestern U.S. border since President Biden took office, or where they’ve gone since. The official number of encounters by Customs and Border Patrol stands at 5.2 million people, logged over the last two full federal fiscal years and fiscal 2023 through March. But that number is imprecise because it includes repeat encounters with the same people and omits the many who slipped into the country unnoticed by border agents.
Under President Biden, the U.S. smashed past the 200,000 monthly encounters mark for the first time in July 2021 and it has repeatedly topped that record in the months since. By comparison, in fiscal 2020, which ended a month before Biden’s defeat of President Trump, the U.S. averaged 38,174 monthly encounters at the border, according to CBP figures.
Earlier: Why Hasn't the GOP Impeached Mayorkas Yet?
Because of an official lack of transparency, all those people and the circumstances by which they have arrived and remained have made it hard to take stock of the historic influx. Through midnight flights and buses from the border to far-flung locales, the administration has made it difficult to identify where the migrants are now living and receiving services. Also unclear are the costs associated with the arrivals.
But flares have been sent up – especially over immigrant sanctuary cities like New York, Denver and Chicago, which have long promised to house migrants. While those cities are providing housing and other services for a small fraction of the recent migrants, the costs are significant for these budget-strapped metropolises.

Denver plans to spend $20 million in the first six months of this year to provide housing to migrants. Officials say this works out to between $800 and $1,000 per week per person.
In January the state of Illinois turned down Chicago’s request for more funds, saying it had already spent close to $120 million on its “asylum seeker emergency response” – or roughly $33,000 per migrant.
New York City Mayor Eric Adams has asked for more than $500 million in federal aid, while pegging the city’s spending at between $2 billion and $3 billion.
Other data points of the opaque costs of Biden-era illegal immigration include Massachusetts’ estimate that it will need $28 million to launch a program to provide driver’s licenses to undocumented residents. The state is seeking a share of the omnibus spending bill passed by Democrats in December 2022 when they controlled both houses of Congress, which included $800 million for cities grappling with the influx.
These numbers are incomplete in part because it is hard to separate the added cost of recent migrants from costs for the millions of undocumented immigrants who were in the country before the recent surge.

A March study by the conservative Federation for American Immigration Reform estimates that, after accounting for taxes paid by undocumented migrants, they cost taxpayers over $150 billion per year – a 30% increase since 2017.
Yet FAIR acknowledges the problem of fixing costs has become more difficult, given the record-breaking numbers of illegal crossers in the past two and a half years and efforts by some government agencies to mask their spending.
“We often had to grapple with a paucity of easily accessible official data,” the report notes. “Many state and federal entities do not publish detailed data that they collect, making it difficult to reliably separate illegal aliens from citizens of lawful immigrants. We have also encountered cases where the current administration has revoked or restricted documents published by previous administrations in order to reduce the visibility of data which shines a negative light on their immigration policy agenda.”
Those totals also involve far more than simple food and board. To arrive at its staggering sum, FAIR includes estimates of the costs in education, health care and law enforcement.
“The irony is not only are these sanctuary jurisdictions turning to Washington with their hands out, but that they still refuse to join with governors like Greg Abbott and Ron DeSantis in demanding that the federal government take decisive steps to stanch the influx of new migrants,” FAIR spokesman Ira Mehlman told RealClearInvestigations, referring to the Republican chief executives of Texas and Florida, respectively. “The obvious hypocrisy of declaring yourself a sanctuary jurisdiction while complaining about the costs and burdens associated with it are undeniable.”
Groups that favor more relaxed border security measures, such as the Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights and the American Immigration Council, did not respond to RCI’s request for comment; the liberal Brookings Institution declined to comment.
Cities housing many migrants have a hard time estimating costs. New York Mayor Adams has asked for more than $500 million in federal aid, while pegging the city’s spending one time at $2 billion and another time at $3 billion. Those are the sorts of bills New York has racked up putting what they call “asylum seekers” or “migrants” in hotels.
And Adams, whose requests sometimes include the claim “we are all in this together,” wants to spend even more. This month, he floated the idea of paying college tuition for illegal immigrants if they attend New York state schools outside the city.
Using Adams’ own number of some 40,000 illegal immigrants that New York City has foot the bills for, it means taxpayers are spending roughly $150,000 per person to host new arrivals. In March, City Hall scaled back its count of the number of its immigrants to 12,700, which meant the taxpayers’ were spending nearly $5 million a day to take care of them, according to a New York Post analysis.
The Office of the New York City Public Advocate, which helps immigrants navigate the benefits available to them, did not respond to multiple requests for comment. A spokeswoman for Adams declined to address questions about spending, pointing instead to various links the city maintains for immigrants and noting the city has expanded a New York County Supreme Court decision in 1981 regarding shelter for homeless people to cover immigrants.
Whatever the current official number of illegal immigrants New York is dealing with it is but a fraction of those that have poured into various Texas communities along the border.
Officials at El Paso’s City Hall, one of the ground zeroes in the illegal immigration crush, did not respond to phone calls and emails seeking comment on its spending. But Gov. Abbott said his Operation Lone Star, launched in March 2021, has “allocated more than $4 billion to do the federal government’s job and secure the border,” Abbott’s spokesman Andrew Mahaleris said.

It was Abbott who began busing illegal immigrants to some of the sanctuary cities that declare themselves so welcoming, such as New York, Denver and Chicago.
“Texas began busing migrants to sanctuary cities last April to provide relief to our overrun and overwhelmed border communities,” Mahaleris said. “Mayors Adams, [Muriel] Bowser and [Lori] Lightfoot were all too happy to tout their sanctuary city statuses until Texas bused over 16,900 migrants, collectively, to their self-declared sanctuary. Instead of complaining about dealing with a fraction of the border crisis Texas communities see every day, these hypocrites should call on President Biden to take immediate action to secure the border – something the president continues failing to do.”
Lightfoot, departing as mayor of Chicago after her defeat in February, first turned to Illinois for millions to help the Windy City cope with its several thousand illegal immigrants Texas provided. In January, however, the state turned her down, saying it had already spent close to $120 million on its “asylum seeker emergency response.”
That response came last September when Illinois Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker issued an “emergency disaster proclamation.” His proclamation and the words of other state leaders presented a schizophrenic picture in which they portray Illinois as a “welcoming beacon of hope” and complain they weren’t given “official advance warning.”
Most of the money Illinois spent – more than $61.5 million, or roughly $31,000 per immigrant – went to contracts with organizations or staff “who provided on site case management and other services at multiple locations.”
Illinois dropped another $8 million on “interim housing,” nearly $4 million on “health screenings for asylum seekers, and more than $29 million on “hotel, transportation and housing costs,” according to their breakdown.
Nowhere did Pritzker or Lightfoot question the wisdom of the Biden administration ‘s border policies, and there was no indication they understood the burdens that had been put on border cities and states. Instead, the unmistakable message was that if illegal immigrants were going to be sent where the “welcoming beacon” shone, other people should pay for it.
“They can say all that is for free, but now they’re finding out they can’t have a welfare society and an open border,” said Lora Reis, the director of the Border Security and Immigration Center at the conservative Heritage Foundation.
Denver held a budget “transparency and equity” meeting earlier this month at which Chief Financial Officer Margaret Danuser said the city will have spent between $17 million and $20 million on housing and other services for between 5,000 and 6,000 illegal immigrants between Dec. 2022 and this June. The city hoped to get federal taxpayers to reimburse it for $2.8 million, and a Colorado state fund for another $3.5 million.
Those figures show Denver spent about the same as Chicago at roughly $33,000 per immigrant, costs that are still far below New York City’s.
“None of these sanctuary mayors or governors have ever asked for a secure border. It was always just, ‘Feds, give us money!’” said Reis.
Monday, October 10, 2022
Biden Continues to Blunder:
NEVER UNDERESTIMATE JOE’S ABILITY TO F*CK THINGS UP:
President Joe Biden was outraged on October 5 when the oil-and-gas cartel OPEC+ announced that it would cut production by two million barrels of oil per day. He had reason to be angry. The dis was personal. And the move has global implications. OPEC+ includes Russia, and rising oil prices will help Vladimir Putin, undermine Europe’s ability to keep the lights on, and reduce food supply in the Global South. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and National Economic Council director Brian Deese released a joint statement slamming the decision as “shortsighted” and harmful for “lower- and middle-income countries that are already reeling from elevated energy prices.”
Yet the White House’s true worry is domestic. Here is how you can tell: Sullivan and Deese mentioned Ukraine only once in their 311-word missive. But they brought up the proverbial gas “pump” twice and U.S. “gas prices” three times. President Biden has been around long enough to understand the special relationship between fuel prices and presidential job approval. He’s incensed that OPEC+ may have helped the Republican opposition weeks before the midterm election.
Biden really ought to look in the mirror. The OPEC+ embarrassment was the latest reminder that he, not Putin nor Saudi Arabia, is the chief author of the Democratic Party’s current woes. On issue after issue, the instructions that Biden gave at the outset of his presidency have made America less prosperous, less independent, and less secure.
Energy and immigration tell the tale. Biden signed 17 executive orders on his first day in office, and two of them dealt with U.S. oil and gas production. One order pledged that America would rejoin the Paris climate accords and commit to the deal’s targeted reductions in carbon dioxide emissions. The other order blocked oil and gas exploration in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, forbade drilling in large parts of Utah, and canceled the Keystone XL pipeline between the United States and Canada. One week later, Biden stopped issuing new oil and gas leases on public lands.
Biden knew what he was doing. The “clean energy transition,” as Sullivan and Deese put it, is among the top priorities of the Democratic Party. The transition involves hiking the cost of carbon-based energy to the point where renewable alternatives become affordable by comparison. You decrease supply of oil and gas until prices rise enough for the average consumer to search online for a Tesla.
Retail gas prices rose steadily between Election Day 2020 and June 2022. Midway through his first year in office, Biden’s energy-dampening regulations contributed to and interacted with the general price inflation he mistakenly assumed to be “temporary.” The president panicked. Rather than confront the green crusaders who fund his party, he opened the spigots of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and pleaded with OPEC+, especially with America’s Persian Gulf allies, to increase production. Gas prices fell between June and September. They settled where they were earlier this year and have ticked upward since.
Biden’s strategy of dependence has run aground. The SPR has been drained to its lowest level since 1984. OPEC+ has told Biden no. The nuclear deal with Iran is in limbo as the mullahs fend off the most significant challenge to their rule in years. And a Wall Street Journal report that the administration was looking into easing sanctions on Nicolas Maduro’s Venezuela so that Chevron could increase output brought jeers from Republicans and a hurried denial from the White House.
Biden’s regulations and restrictions accomplished what he wanted: more expensive oil and gas. His problem is that voters do not want the future the climate Cassandras have in store for them.
The thing is, Greens want to make your life worse. The policies for doing so may vary, the the impact is always the same. That’s because making your life worse is the goal; the policy arguments are just the current excuse.
B
Friday, September 9, 2022
The Border Comes to Sanctuary Cities
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS:
Shot:
Ward 1 is the most diverse ward in DC with the largest immigrant population. I support all of our residents. My priority is keeping our residents safe and making sure they know their rights when ICE comes. Learn more about my work to protect and serve our immigrant residents here.
The District is a sanctuary city, which means our law enforcement does not cooperate with ICE. The Metropolitan Police Department’s policy is that it will not enforce civil immigration laws, which only create a strong divide between the police and community members. MPD officers are also prohibited from asking about residency and immigration status.
—“Statement on Recent ICE Actions in Ward 1,” Office of DC Councilmember Brianne K. Nadeau, June 25th, 2019.
Chaser:
“The governors of Texas and Arizona have created this crisis,” Nadeau claimed. She said that they weren’t getting any help from the federal government. She said that they’d “learned from border towns.” “In many ways, the governors of Texas and Arizona have turned us into a border town.”
First, no, the governors of Texas and Arizona didn’t “create” this crisis — Joe Biden did by his horrible border policies that are just allowing people to flood across the border. Texas and Arizona are just trying to make Democrats finally acknowledge it is a crisis. Now, people like Nadeau are doing exactly that when they only get several thousand people in their city, as opposed to the hundreds of thousands that have flooded small border towns that don’t even begin tdso have the capacity or facilities that D.C. does. If that is a “public emergency” for D.C. what is it for the border towns? She’s acknowledging by her very comment how bad it is in border towns and she’s upset that it’s happening to D.C. Why weren’t they upset when it was happening to the border towns? Because it didn’t impact them. Meanwhile, Joe Biden and his team aren’t helping them, just like he hasn’t helped the border towns. Just to be clear, D.C. isn’t even approaching anywhere near how bad it’s been for border towns.
—“D.C. City Council Member Delivers Hilarious Take on ‘Emergency’ in D.C. From Busing Illegal Aliens,” Nick Arama, Red State, today.
Earlier: Sanctuary Cities Seethe as Illegal Immigrants Actually Arrive.
The surest sign that public policies are simply virtue signals is when the messages don’t cost anything. The easiest way to tell when that signal starts to fail is to watch politicians flounder as the costs start to rise and voters demand relief.
It was free—and meaningless—for progressive churches to post banners calling themselves “nuclear free zones” during the Reagan era. Their dwindling congregations loved it. It was free, after George Floyd‘s murder, to post woke catechism signs on your front lawn, proclaiming “In this house, we believe: Black Lives Matter, women’s rights are human rights, no human is illegal” and so on. Maybe the neighbors gave you high-fives. And for years it has been free for deep-blue cities to proclaim themselves “sanctuaries” for illegal immigrants. That’s changing now that voters want some sanctuary for themselves.
Changes like this happen when voters realize the old virtue signals actually entail serious costs—and that they will have to pay them. That is exactly what’s happening in New York City and Washington D.C. now that Texas governor Greg Abbott is sending those cities a few busloads of illegal immigrants from his state.
These progressive bastions were silent when the Biden administration flew planeloads of illegal immigrants to suburban airports in the middle of the night. TV coverage was prohibited, and the arrivals were secretly dispersed. Abbott’s buses, by contrast, arrive downtown greeted by local TV crews. Now you can hear the politicians screech.
Related: Democrats Discover Only The Federal Government Can Solve The Border Crisis.
UPDATE: Democrat mayors prepare to be next targets on Governor Abbott’s sanctuary city list.
D
Thursday, April 21, 2022
Dems in TROUBLE & They know It
Dems in TROUBLE & They know It
NEW YORK POST:
Dems’ happy talk can’t hide havoc inflation wreaking on working Americans.
Democrats’ latest Hail Mary effort to sell themselves in advance of November’s election turns on claiming the US economy is doing great, with employment up 6.5 million this last year. It’s doomed to fail, for two big reasons.
First, everyone knows these are still overwhelmingly just jobs recovered post-pandemic (with the recovery slowest in Democratic-controlled, heavy-lockdown states).
Second, and more important: Working Americans are all too aware how rampant inflation is setting them back.
Indeed, prices are soaring higher for the working class than for better-off Americans: Inflation in the year through March was 9.4 percent for them, per the Labor Department’s CPI-W measure (Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers), vs. 8.5% in the “headline” CPI number.
It’s even worse over the last six months, with annualized CPI of 10.1% but CPI-W of 11.1%.
These are the widest gaps ever recorded.
That’s because working-class Americans spend more of their incomes on food and gas, which have seen by far the stiffest increases in prices.
Plus: Flashback: Democrats’ war on suburban women includes inflation-fueling reckless spending.
I
Tuesday, December 7, 2021
Monday, November 29, 2021
Rep. Gonzales Lays the Border Crisis Blame at Democrats’ Feet.
CRISIS BY DESIGN:
Gonzales Lays the Border Crisis Blame at Democrats’ Feet.
“Rep. Tony Gonzales is a GOP congressman from Texas’ 23rd district. His district covers an astonishingly huge space — roughly a third of the U.S.-Mexico border. So if anybody in Congress is aware of what’s going on at our Southern border, it’s Gonzales.”
B
Sunday, November 28, 2021
GOP Onward to 2022 Midterms
‘IMMIGRATION IS WAR:’ an interview with Éric Zemmour.
For Zemmour, the most craven expression of this hyper-individualism is militant political correctness — “le wokeisme.” He calls it “hypersensitivity to the rights of the individual, a generalized offensive against French and western culture, against the white heterosexual man. These people want above all to make the French and all westerners feel guilty, ashamed of their history, so that they amputate themselves, destroy themselves, abandon their culture, their civilization, simply so that they no longer feel guilty.”
This wokeness, he argues, is a kind of Trojan horse for the Islamification of formerly Christian nations. “It is by destroying our cultures, our history, that they make a clean sweep of all that and allow a foreign culture, history and civilization to come and replace it.”
Such talk — echoing as it does “the great replacement theory” of Renaud Camus — causes consternation in progressive circles. Somebody, probably David Aaronovitch, will no doubt accuse The Spectator of giving a platform to nativism or white supremacism merely by speaking to him. Yet Zemmour is utterly unabashed about his views and he’s currently second or third in the presidential election polls.
Might his preoccupations with national characteristics, the greatness of French literature and the collapse of western civilization have something to do with the fact that he is himself an immigrant child? His parents were Berber Jews from Algeria. His grandfather spoke better Arabic than French. His father drove an ambulance.
“What my family has done in terms of assimilating French culture should be an example,” he says, proudly. “I am a product of French colonialization. I am not one of these people who condemn the French colonizer. I say thank you.
Earlier:
● Jared Bernstein, member of Biden’s Council of Economic Advisors: “One thing we learned in the 1990s was that a surefire way to reconnect the fortunes of working people at all skill levels, immigrant and native-born alike, to the growing economy is to let the job market tighten up. A tight job market pressures employers to boost wage offers to get and keep the workers they need. One equally surefire way to sort-circuit this useful dynamic is to turn on the immigrant spigot every time some group’s wages go up.”
● Former Trump administration senior adviser Stephen Miller: Biden’s Immigration Plan Would “Erase America’s Nationhood.”
● “Labour wanted mass immigration to make UK more multicultural, says former adviser. Labour threw open Britain’s borders to mass immigration to help socially engineer a ‘truly multicultural’ country, a former Government adviser has revealed.”
● 69 Percent of Hispanics Disapprove of Biden’s Handling of Immigration.
● Tom Cotton’s Response to Kamala Harris’ Border Failures Should Be the Default for All Republicans: “‘You know, Laura, Kamala Harris didn’t have to go all the way to Guatemala and Mexico to find the root causes of this border crisis because they’re not there,’ Cotton told Fox News host Laura Ingraham earlier this week. ‘The root causes are in the White House.’ He further explained that it ‘happened on January 20th when Joe Biden took office, and he essentially opened our borders, reversing very effective policies that had our borders under control.’”
A core theme of the midterm and presidential elections won’t be too hard to figure out:

Thursday, September 23, 2021
Border in Chaos - Texas Stepts In
'Steel barrier' of HUNDREDS of state trooper SUVs line the border in 'unprecedented' move to stem the tide of Haitian migrants after Biden made mockery of pledge to send them home by RELEASING thousands into America
- Texas Gov. Abbott praised officials for creating a 'steel barrier' of state-owned vehicles that stretch along the border to deter Haitian migrants from crossing
- The 'steel barrier' is the latest method border officials are utilizing to deal with the surge of thousands of Haitian migrants crossing into the United States
- The vehicles are lined up outside Del Rio in Texas, which has seen an influx of 14,600 migrants who crossed the Rio Grande from Mexico into the US
- An estimated 8,600 remained and about 1,000 have been deported back to Mexico
- Thousands of Haitian migrants have already been freed into the US on a 'very, very large scale' rather than being flown out on deportation flights as the Biden administration promised
- They are handed notices to appear at immigration office in 60 days, source said
- Abbott took shots at Biden for not doing enough to secure the border and said the state of Texas would add $2 billion toward border security funding
Wednesday, September 22, 2021
Biden's Team Stymies Border Solving
Bombshell Accusations Against Administration
R
Rodney S. Scott, the recently retired U.S. Border Patrol chief, made some stunning revelations in a letter to Democrat and Republican leaders in the Senate and the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee. Accord to Scott’s letter, which was obtained by JusttheNews.com, career experts have made many recommendations to slow the border crisis but have been repeatedly rebuffed by the Biden administration.
Common sense border security recommendations from experienced career professionals are being ignored and stymied by inexperienced political appointees,” Scott wrote in his letter earlier this month. “The Biden administration’s team at DHS is laser-focused on expediting the flow of migrants into the U.S. and downplaying the significant vulnerability this creates for terrorists, narcotics smugglers, human traffickers, and even hostile nations to gain access to our homeland.”
Scott, a 29-year career law enforcement officer, was originally appointed by President Trump. He retired last month.
“In my professional assessment, the U.S. Border Patrol is rapidly losing the situational awareness required to know who and what is entering our Homeland,” Scott warned, before revealing that the Biden administration has not only been ignoring advice on how to mitigate the crisis, but is also deliberately misleading Congress.
“The experienced civil service staff within CBP, ICE and DHS have provided multiple options to reduce the illegal entries and reestablish some semblance of border security through proven programs and consequences, yet every recommendation has been summarily rejected,” Scott wrote. “Secretary Mayorkas is choosing to ignore the sound recommendations of career government leadership despite his own admissions that he agrees with them.”
“Of grave concern,” Scott continued, “is the fact that the Secretary and other political appointees within DHS have provided factually incorrect information to Congressional Representatives and to the American public. Furthermore, they have directed USBP personnel to allow otherwise ineligible aliens to remain in the U.S. inconsistent with the … established legal processes and law.”
Scott’s accusation that the Biden administration is lying to Congress must be investigated. While it has been obvious to many of us that the Biden administration has shown no interest in solving the border crisis, lying to Congress about the situation is a serious accusation that cannot be ignored.
Tuesday, September 21, 2021
Border Expulsions INCrease
Border Expulsions
US officials accelerated the deportation of Haitian migrants camped outside a Texas border town yesterday, with multiple flights carrying hundreds of people back to their home country. An estimated 14,000 Haitian migrants are expected to be sent back over the next three weeks.
A surge in Haitian migrants began early last week, said to be fueled by rumors circulating among the community of an easy entry point into the US. Many have lived in South and Central America for years, following a large-scale exodus after a devastating 2010 earthquake. The group has congregated under the Del Rio bridge that connects the US and Mexico (see photos).
The wave of migrants comes amid a two-decade high in border arrivals. More than 1.5 million encounters have been recorded this fiscal year.
In related news, the Biden administration said it would raise the annual cap for refugees from 62,500 to 125,000 for fiscal year 2022.
Monday, September 6, 2021
BIDEN LOSES MIGRANT KIDS, MSM YAWNS:
BIDEN LOSES MIGRANT KIDS, MSM YAWNS: Issues & Insights notes that the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) recently acknowledged that it cannot account for more than 4,500 children of illegal immigrants who crossed the U.S. border with Mexico.
Credit goes to Axios for submitting the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request that unearthed the data. But why does the public have to depend upon a feistily independent news outlet instead of the Grey Lady or the Washington Pest for such news?
“As of Sunday, the New York Times hadn’t mentioned it. Nor had the Washington Post. Nor any other major newspaper. There’s been no mention of the findings on the network news, on CNN, or on MSNBC. The story has been picked up only by some conservative news outlets,” Issues & Insights points out.
This is significant, of course, because when the previous administration lost track of a third as many migrant kids, the Times, Post, the networks, etc. etc. went crazy. One might think such hypocrisy would be so embarrassing that it would be addressed by the owners. I’m not holding my breath
Tuesday, June 1, 2021
The Coming of Age, Fifteen Years Late - Mark Steyn
The Coming of Age, Fifteen Years Late
by Mark Steyn
Steyn on Culture

Happy Whit Monday to my Commonwealth cousins throughout the Caribbean and the Pacific, and to our readers in much of Continental Europe. And of course to my fellow Canadians a happy if locked down Victoria Day. Enjoy it while you can.
Front page news from yesterday's New York Times:
World Is Facing First Long Slide in Its Population
Me in my international bestseller fifteen years ago:
The single most important fact about the early 21st century is the rapid aging of almost every developed nation other than the United States: Canada, Europe and Japan are getting old fast, older than any functioning society has ever been and faster than any has ever aged... These countries – or, more precisely, these people – are going out of business.
The Times front page yesterday:
All over the world, countries are confronting population stagnation and a fertility bust, a dizzying reversal unmatched in recorded history that will make first-birthday parties a rarer sight than funerals, and empty homes a common eyesore.
Me in 2006:
The salient feature of Europe, Canada, Japan and Russia is that they're running out of babies. What's happening in the developed world is one of the fastest demographic evolutions in history... This isn't a projection: It's happening now. There's no need to extrapolate, and if you do it gets a little freaky, but, just for fun, here goes: By 2050, 60 per cent of Italians will have no brothers, no sisters, no cousins, no aunts, no uncles. The big Italian family, with papa pouring the vino and mama spooning out the pasta down an endless table of grandparents and nieces and nephews, will be gone, no more, dead as the dinosaurs. As Noël Coward remarked in another context, 'Funiculì, funiculà , funic yourself.'
The Times yesterday:
Maternity wards are already shutting down in Italy. Ghost cities are appearing in northeastern China. Universities in South Korea can't find enough students, and in Germany, hundreds of thousands of properties have been razed, with the land turned into parks.
Me fifteen years ago:
[In Japan] the shortage of children has led to a shortage of obstetricians...
[China's] population will get old before it's got rich...
The 'experts' of the western world are slower to turn around than an ocean liner, and in Europe they were still yakking about the 'population explosion' even as their 1970s schoolhouses, built in anticipation of traditional Catholic birthrates, were emptying through the Nineties and Oughts...
One can talk airily about being flushed down the toilet of history, but even that's easier said than done. In eastern Germany, rural communities are dying, and one consequence is that village sewer systems are having a tough time adjusting to the lack of use. Populations have fallen so dramatically there are too few people flushing to keep the flow of waste moving...
The Times yesterday:
The strain of longer lives and low fertility, leading to fewer workers and more retirees, threatens to upend how societies are organized — around the notion that a surplus of young people will drive economies and help pay for the old. It may also require a reconceptualization of family and nation. Imagine entire regions where everyone is 70 or older...
Me a decade-and-a-half ago:
Speaking for myself... I'd rather date Debbie Reynolds than Angelina Jolie. But even to put it in those terms is to become aware of how our assumptions about a society's health – about its innovative and creative energies - are based on its youthfulness. Picture the difference between a small northern mill town where the mill's closed down and the young people have moved away and a growing community in the Sun Belt. Which has the bigger range of stores and restaurants, more work opportunities, better school choice? Which problem would you rather have - managing growth or managing decline..?
In theory, those countries will find their population halving every thirty-five years or so. In practice, it will be quicker than that, as the savvier youngsters figure there's no point sticking around a country that's turned into an undertaker's waiting room. Not every pimply burger flipper wants to support entire old folks' homes single-handed...
Everything The New York Times finally got around to yesterday, I said in 2006. My book was an international bestseller, including on the Times' own Top Ten list. Yet it did not bother reviewing America Alone, mentioning it only in the context of "hate" in Canada or as evidence of how literary darling Martin Amis had gone to pot.
It's actually rather difficult to write a bestseller about demography. On at least three continents, princes, presidents and prime ministers noticed the book and invited me to discuss it with them. And then they did nothing. Christopher Hitchens put my demographic thesis to Tony Blair and asked him if, at get-togethers with EU leaders, it was part of "the European conversation". And the PM replied that it was part of "the subterranean conversation" - ie, within the norms of 21st-century political discourse, there was no way to bring up the subject in public.
And now, a generation after one Canadian's book went unreviewed by The New York Times, no fewer than five Times reporters were needed to write a front-page story saying nothing Times readers couldn't have been apprised of in the autumn of 2006.
In the above sentence I'm using "generation" in the Afghan or Sudanese sense. If you have one designer child at the age of forty, generations are a little more leisurely. And, that being very common these days, all that has changed since 2006 is that America has now joined Europe in the demographic death spiral.
A final point: When I say that demography is "the single most important fact about the early 21st century", I mean it. As I've commented over the last year, it partially explains the fearful reaction to ChiCom-19. As I put it in America Alone:
Aged societies, by their nature, are more cautious and less dynamic: old people weigh exposure to risk more than potential for gain.
And so since March 2020 we have prioritized "exposure to risk" over life itself. And for a year we walled up our dwindling number of young 'uns in small flats with no school chums, no stimulation, no physical activity: that's a society whose "assumptions" are old.
And in the end the old people died anyway...
