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A priest, a rabbit, and a monk walk
into a bar.
The rabbit says, "I think I'm a
typo."
Wanted to give you a bit of dad-joke
joy before diving into our top story. Which is this: The International
Monetary Fund (IMF) crunched the numbers
and concluded we're in the worst economic catastrophe since the Great
Depression.
Introducing...the "Great
Lockdown":
- Global
output per person will contract
4.2% this year, the IMF predicts. It shrank less than half that much
during the 2008–09 financial crisis.
- The
IMF's baseline scenario for global economic growth this year: -3%.
In the worst-case scenario—lockdowns extending into the second half
of the year and a second wave of infections next year—GDP could fall
by another 8% in 2021.
- Cumulative
GDP loss over 2020 and 2021: about $9 trillion, more than the
economies of Japan and Germany combined.
Not great, Bob
It's not just the size that draws
comparisons to 1929, it's this crisis's reach. Namely, all over the
world. "For the first time since the Great Depression both advanced
economies and emerging market and developing economies are in
recession," the IMF writes.
- The
IMF projects diminishing income per capita in more than 170
countries.
One notable exception: Guyana,
a small country perched on the northern coast of South America. Its
economy is forecast to grow 53%
in 2020, easily the most of any country and the only economy in the Americas
expected to grow at all this year.
- Guyana
can thank offshore oil fields that may hold 8 billion barrels of
black gold, which have attracted meaty investments from energy
majors.
Looking ahead...the IMF
anticipates a partial global recovery in 2021. But that, too, will be
shaped by the length of lockdowns and whether there's a second wave of
infections.
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