OUTLOOK: Week of October 8th

MARKETS REACTING TO FED OUTLOOK OUTLOOK: Week of October 8th It has been building over the last two months and the last two trading days are the reality of the worries. Tariffs, geopolitics, flat yield curve, inflation talk, economic data 'too good', etc. If the chants happen long enough and often enough investors start to believe what they hear. Once that belief is big enough the selling begins. We can see on the charts of the major indexes the impact of the last two day... do me a favor and change the time period for the bars on the chart to weekly and look at the uptrend since February 2016. The NASDAQ is up nearly 80% for the last two and a half years or 24.6% annualized return. That is pretty solid... moving lower 3.2% the last two days does not change that trendline. The reality is we have to take the bad with the good, manage our risk, and look for the opportunities... stop listening to the talking heads talk about the end of the world. Stay focused and keep your eye on your money not the markets' reaction to the media and the talking heads.. . >>read more at JimsNotes.com>> MORE SELLING FOR STOCKS AS ANXIETY RISES OUTLOOK: October 11th What happened? As I stated yesterday the market was acting like it wanted to take another leg lower... and it did. The downside was credited to the Fed and interest rates, but the reality is investors are nervous and wanted out. When the collective psyche of the markets turns sour... the sellers gain the upper hand. It was building as we discussed and Wednesday was the day everyone got together and decided to sell. Stops were hit long positions, short positions ran higher, and we took the good with the bad. If I can make one point and explain one more time, the use of stops on your positions is exactly for the last 7-10 days of trading. Regardless of how good things sound and are on paper, you never know what the collective action of investors will be. We have hit many stops during this time that put money on the sidelines. We have added short positions where the strategy warranted it. We have followed our discipline as warranted. The end result is not losing sleep last night after a day where many were counting their losses. Discipline always wins in the end. Today we watch to see how the investors respond to the mini-meltdown on Wednesday. The technical data are getting to extreme levels and leaves room for a bounce...  >>read more at JimsNotes.com>> FOLLOWING THE BOUNCING STOCKS OUTLOOK: October 13th Friday offers some comfort with a bounce following two days of selling. What does any of it mean? The questions on all the blogs and headlines are about what happens from here? To answer that question is to prognosticate about the future or speculate... either involves risk for our money. I am of the opinion we watch and see how next week unfolds. The answer will evolve soon enough. Do the buyers come back? Does the bounce only balance out the selling and leave the markets in a consolidation phase? Follow the leaders and the answers will evolve... Square (SQ) is a good example of a stock that sold off more than thirty percent... it was one of the leaders in the technology sector. Does tech come back? Following stocks like this and MSFT, AAPL, and others will provide some answers. NASDAQ 100 will also provide insight along with the yield on the ten-year bond. Patience is a word not many want to use with investing, but I have learned to embrace it and use it a major tool for managing money. You can make up for lost opportunities, but recovering from lost principle is not easy. Stay focused as we watch how next week unfolds...  >>read more at JimsNotes.com>> Oct 15 (Mon) U.S. markets: "We don't wanna talk about it."—any investor you ask about last week's very rough couple days (with $2.6 trillion slashed off the value of global equity).  There could be hope for a rebound this week with some heavy hitters reporting earnings.